Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

October 11, 2021

Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Game 4 of the ALDS sees the Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays after winning Game 3 in a wild 13 inning game. Opening pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET and will air on FS1 from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Predictions

Game 3 of this series was an instant classic. The Tampa Bay Rays were able to hang around despite allowing 15 hits, taking the Boston Red Sox to extra innings after scoring two runs in the eighth.

Unfortunately for the Rays, the 13th inning was unlucky for Tampa Bay. It looked like Kevin Kiermaier had driven in the go-ahead run with two outs in the inning, but it was called a ground-rule double after the ball bounced off Hunter Renfroe and over the short wall. They were unable to score, and then Christian Vazquez walked it off with a two-run homer in the bottom half of the inning. That was an especially brutal beat for anyone that had Rays +1.5 on the run line.

Tampa Bay used nine pitchers in Game 3, but the Rays should be able to pull off the upset on Monday and force a decisive Game 5 in Tropicana Field.

Boston may have won the battle on Sunday evening in Beantown, but the Red Sox have a much worse bullpen and have now used presumed Game 4 starter Nick Pivetta. That means the Red Sox will have to use Eduardo Rodriguez, and he was rocked by the Rays in Game 1. He allowed two hits and two walks and couldn’t get out of the second inning in the 5-0 loss.

Score Prediction: Rays 7, Red Sox 3

Best Bet: Rays ML

Best Bet: Over

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Odds

Game odds provided by BetMGM - subject to change

• Rays -115
• Red Sox -105
• Rays -1.5 +135
• Red Sox +1.5 -160
• Over 9.5 -110
• Under 9.5 -110

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone UNDER the run total in five of their last six road games. (AP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Resources

• Matchup: AL East
• Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• TV-Time: FS1 - 7:07 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Rays

• Record: 101-64
• Run Line: 97-68
• O/U: 86-72-7
• Runs: 857 (2nd)
• Batting Average: .242 (14th)
• On Base Percentage: .321 (11th)
• ERA: 3.67 (4th)
• WHIP: 1.17 (3rd)

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

• Record: 95-71
• Run Line: 88-78
• O/U: 77-85-4
• Runs: 829 (5th)
• Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
• On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
• ERA: 4.26 (15th)
• WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

• TMB: Randy Arozarena - LF (.274 avg, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs)
• TMB: Austin Meadows - DH (.234 avg, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs)
• BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HRs, 113 RBIs)
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HRs, 79 RBIs)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Probable Pitchers

TMB: TBD

BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez - LHP (13-8, 4.74 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.39 WHIP)

Kevin Keirmaier was the victim of an odd ground rule double rule that would've seen Tampa Bay take an extra inning lead. (AP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Analysis

We have yet to hear who the Rays will start in Game 4 on Monday. Luis Patiño was the presumed starter yesterday, but he threw the 12th and 13th innings for Tampa Bay last night. That means Michael Wacha and Collin McHugh are the likely starters, as Kevin Cash looks to save Shane McClanahan for a potential Game 5.

Wacha and McHugh were both rocked in their previous outings. Wacha surrendered nine hits and six earned runs in 2.2 innings in Game 2, while McHugh gave up two hone runs in 1.2 innings of that game. Both players are likely to get pulled at the first sign of real trouble, as the Rays have one of the most reliable bullpens in baseball.

Wander Franco had an incredible rookie season, and he is keeping it going in the playoffs. Franco has six hits through the first three games against the Red Sox, and he hit a home run in the eighth inning to start the comeback last night. He has been Tampa Bay’s most dangerous hitter despite being just 20 years old.

Randy Arozarena has delivered some big hits, and Austin Meadows was solid in his first game in the starting lineup in Game 3. However, Brandon Lowe continues to struggle mightily and is now 0-14 in the postseason. Lowe was dismal last postseason too, so Cash should drop him in the order.

Boston will start Rodriguez, but he is likely to be in the same situation as whoever starts Game 4 for Tampa Bay. Rodriguez has not been reliable, so manager Alex Cora might turn to Tanner Houck or Chris Sale and save the other one for Game 5.

The Red Sox were shut out in Game 1 of this series, but they have scored 26 runs in their other three games this postseason. They have hit a ton in their last two games too with 35 hits against the Rays.

Enrique Hernandez has continued his tear these playoffs. Hernandez now has nine hits through four games, and he hit another home run on Sunday night. His production has been a very nice surprise, as he is getting on base before the heart of the order.

Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo have also hit the cover off the ball, while Rafael Devers has drawn four walks in four games. Their offensive explosion has paced this team, but they are due for a bad game or two given what we have seen the last few days.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Trends

• TBD.

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