Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets Saturday for game-two of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York and can be viewed on FS1.  

Score Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 4 

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• Over 7.5 (-105) at BetMGM

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Predictions

The Phillies went scoreless with no hits on Friday night, losing to the Mets 3-0. The pitching was solid, but it’s tough to win when the offense cannot get a hit. Starting pitcher Aaron Nola went 6.0 innings and gave up seven hits and three runs. Nick Nelson was the only other pitcher used and gave up three hits and zero runs. The right-hander Kyle Gibson is scheduled to get the start on Saturday. Gibson is 2-1 in four games this season with an ERA of 3.47 and has allowed 16 hits, nine earned runs, and struck out 23 batters in 23.1 innings of work.  

The Mets had a decent night hitting the ball with 10 hits and three runs. The pitching was outstanding, as five pitchers combined for a no-hitter. Starting pitcher Tylor Megill went 5.0 innings while the other four pitchers finished off the rest of the game. Right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker is expected to take the mound Saturday. Walker has seen limited action this season after injuring his shoulder on April 11th.  He pitched just 2.0 innings that day, but did manage to strike out four batters.  

I would back the Mets moneyline in this matchup, but Taijuan Walker coming back from injury is a bit concerning as he has only pitched 2.0 innings this season. With the being said, the Mets have been too good of a team for me to bet against. I think the play here is the over. While game one was dominated by pitching on both sides, I expect more hits and runs in game two. Backing the over in this matchup.  

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Odds

• Phillies +100
• Mets -120
• Phillies +1.5 (-200)
• Mets -1.5 (+170)
• Over 7.5 (-105)
• Under 7.5 (-115)

MLB Odds | World Series Odds | Expert Picks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Resources

• Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022
• Matchup: NL East
• Stadium: Citi Field
• Location: Queens, New York
• TV-Time: FS1 - 7:10 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis

The Phillies got off to a rough start this season, but have been better as of late and are 10-11 SU, 10-11 ATS, and have an O/U record of 10-9-2. The total has gone over in four of Philadelphia’s last five games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in seven of their last nine when playing on the road against the Mets. The Phillies have had recent success against the Mets, going 7-3 SU in their last 10 matchups.  

Aside from their scoreless game on Friday, the Phillies have been hitting the ball well, scoring seven or more runs in four straight games. As a team Philadelphia has a batting average of .246 (8th), on base percentage of .319 (12th), slugging percentage of .397 (8th), and have scored 96 runs (5th). The left fielder Nick Castellanos has been the team's most productive hitter with a batting average of .319 (23-72), three home runs, and 12 RBIs. All Star Bryce Harper started a bit slow this season, but has started to find a rhythm with a batting average of .276 (21-76), three home runs, and 14 RBIs.  

Philadelphia’s bullpen has held opposing teams to under three runs in six straight games. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .237 (18th), have an ERA of 4.08 (22nd), and have given up 87 runs (20th). Right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson is expected to take the mound on Saturday. Gibson is 2-1 in four games this season with an ERA of 3.47 and has allowed 16 hits, nine earned runs, and struck out 23 batters in 23.1 innings. Gibson pitched in two games against the Mets last season and gave up 11 hits, four earned runs, and struck out 12 batters in 12.2 innings.  

New York Mets Betting Analysis

The Mets have had an excellent start to the season and have gone 15-6 SU, 14-7 ATS, and have an O/U record of 8-10-3. New York is 4-1 SU in their last five home games. The total has gone under in seven of their last 10 against the Phillies. Following this trend, the total has gone under in seven of their last nine games when playing at home against Philadelphia.  

New York has had their bats working all season and are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. As a team the Mets have a batting average of .261 (1st), on base percentage of .343 (1st), slugging percentage of .395 (9th), and have scored 97 runs (3rd). Designated hitter Pete Alonso has done a nice job bringing in runs with a batting average of .260 (20-77), three home runs, and 16 RBIs. The shortstop Francisco Lindor has also been playing well with a batting average of .273 (21-77), four home runs, and 13 RBIs.  

After Friday night’s no hitter, the Mets have now held opposing teams scoreless in five games on the season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .194 (2nd), have an ERA of 2.79 (3rd), and have given up 61 runs (3rd). The right-hander Taijuan Walker is expected to take the mound Saturday. Walker injured his shoulder on April 11th and has pitched just 2.0 innings this season. In five games against the Phillies last season, Walker went 0-2 and allowed 20 hits, 11 earned runs, and struck out 21 batters in 26.1 innings of work. 

Key Players to Watch

• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 0-3, BB)
• PHI: Nick Castellanos - OF (Last Game: 0-4)
• NYM: Francisco Lindor - SS (Last Game: 2-4)
• NYM: Pete Alonso - 1B (Last Game: 1-4, HR, R, RBI)

Probable Pitchers

• PHI: Kyle Gibson - RHP (2-1, 3.47 ERA, 23 K, 0.99 WHIP)
• NYM: Taijuan Walker - RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 K, 0.00 WHIP)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Conclusion

I like the total to go over in this matchup. The Phillies offense should be able to get back on track in this one as they had scored seven or more runs in four straight games prior to Friday night. The Mets have been extremely consistent this season and we should be able to count on three to five runs from them. Backing the over in this matchup as I think either team could walk away with a win.  

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