New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Yankees travel to meet the Houston Astros Wednesday for Game 1 of the ALCS. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 PM ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas and can be viewed on TBS.  

Updated on 02/21/2024
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New York finally managed to wrap up their series with the Cleveland Guardians after winning Game 5 Tuesday. The Yankees offense finished the day with six hits, five runs, and went 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position (RISP). DH Giancarlo Stanton hit a huge three-run bomb in the first inning to put the Yankees ahead early and the rest is history. LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. gave up three hits and one run in five innings. The other three pitchers gave up a combined five hits and no runs in four innings of relief. RHP Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA) is scheduled to start Game 1.  

Houston will enter this series as fresh as can be with their series against the Seattle Mariners wrapping up on October 15th. The Astros managed to knock off the Mariners with a three-game sweep, and find themselves in a familiar position, looking to make it to their fourth World Series in the past six seasons. The offense was solid in their series against Seattle, scoring a combined 13 runs in three games. The bullpen also played well, holding the Mariners to nine runs throughout the series. Astros RHP Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) is expected to start Wednesday.  

The Astros went 4-2 SU in their six regular season matchups against the Yankees. I like that trend to continue, and for the 'Stros to take Game 1. Having three days' rest after a three-game sweep should be a huge advantage going against a Yankees team that has not had a traditional day off since last Wednesday in their series with Cleveland. There isn't much value in the Astros ML, so I'll be playing the run-line in Game 1.

Score Prediction: Astros 5, Yankees 3
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+125)


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  • Date: Wednesday, October 19, 2022
  • Matchup: AL East vs. AL West
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Time-TV: 7:37 p.m. ET – TBS
  • Expert Picks


After Tuesday’s win the Yankees are 102-65 SU and 75-92 ATS this season. The total has gone under in 11 of the Yankees' last 16 games. Following this trend, the total has gone under in seven of their last 10 games when playing an opponent from the American League. New York is 3-4 SU in its last seven games and 6-4 SU in its last 10 games on the road.  

New York’s offense was way down in their series with Cleveland compared to their regular-season stats. In the ALDS with the Guardians, the Yankees had a team batting average of .182, on base percentage of .273, slugging percentage of .370 and scored 20 runs. Had it not been for their nine-home runs they more than likely would not have advanced to the ALCS. 1B Anthony Rizzo hit the ball well throughout the ALDS, going 5-for-17 (.294) at the plate with one home run and four RBIs. CF Aaron Judge got off to a slow start in the ALDS but finished strong in Game 5, batting 2-for-4 with a solo home run.

The Yankees bullpen pitched well against the Guardians, but it is not nearly as strong as in the regular season. Keeping Cleveland's offense at bay is one thing, but this Astros offense will be a much tougher challenge. Taillon is expected to start Wednesday. Taillon went 14-5 SU this season with an ERA of 3.91 and gave up 168 hits, 77 earned runs, and struck out 151 batters in 177 1/3 innings. In his one appearance in the ALDS, Taillon blew the lead in the ninth inning, giving up three hits and two runs without retiring a batter.



The Astros are 109-56 SU and 88-77 ATS headed into this series. Houston has gone 7-1 SU in its last eight games and 4-2 SU in its last six games against the Yankees. The total has gone under in six of their last eight games. Going against this trend, the total has gone over in three of their last five games against New York.  

Houston’s offense was great throughout the regular season and looked solid in the ALDS against the Mariners. In the three games the Astros had a team batting average of .217, on base percentage of .273, slugging percentage of .388, and scored 13 runs. LF Yordan Alvarez is one of the hottest hitters left in the postseason and in the ALDS went 4-for-15 (.267) at the plate with two home runs and seven RBIs. 2B Jose Altuve had an awful ALDS, batting 0-for-16 at the plate with no homers or RBIs. I would not expect that slump to last much longer and for him to show up in this series.  

The Astros bullpen was one of the best in the league throughout the regular season and held the Mariners to nine total runs in the ALDS. Verlander will take the mound Wednesday. Verlander went 18-4 SU this season with an ERA of 1.75 and gave up 116 hits, 34 earned runs and struck out 185 batters in 175 innings of work. In his one postseason start against the Mariners, Verlander gave up 10 hits and six runs in four innings. 


  • NYY: Aaron Judge - OF (Postseason: .125, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 9 K, .489 OPS)
  • NYY: Giancarlo Stanton - OF (Postseason: .083, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K, .533 OPS)
  • HOUYordan Alvarez - OF (Postseason: .267, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 1.086 OPS)
  • HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (Postseason: .000, BB, R, 6 K, .059 OPS)


  • NYY: Jameson Taillon - RHP (0-1, INF ERA, INF WHIP in 1 Postseason appearance)
  • HOU: Justin Verlander - RHP (0-0, 13.50 ERA, 3 K, 4 IP in 1 Postseason start)