Kings vs Pelicans Picks, Odds | NBA Play-In Tournament Prediction

The 2024 SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament resumes with a pair of elimination games for the 8-seed in both conferences this Friday -- and the second matchup of the evening we'll be previewing is Kings vs Pelicans, which is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Pelicans are 1.5-point favorites on the spread in Friday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 214.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs Pelicans -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Play-In Tournament on Friday, April 19.

Kings vs Pelicans Odds

SAC @ NO Odds

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Kings vs Pelicans Picks & Prediction

In the first round of the Play-In Tournament, the Kings were tagged as underdogs on their home floor against Golden State – and clearly, they took that to heart, as Sacramento jumped out to a 9-point first quarter lead in Tuesday’s contest and never looked back on the way to a commanding 118-94 victory to advance to Friday’s matchup.

The question is, however, can lightning strike twice for the Kings?

Sacramento is a team that naturally yields high 3-point variance. The Kings rank 3rd in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (39.3), yet rank just 16th in 3-point field goal percentage (36.6 %). 

So, long story short, if Sacramento’s shots are falling from beyond the arc, they can look like the best offense in basketball on any given night. And that’s exactly what happened in the first round of the Play-In, as the Kings jacked up 39 3-point attempts against GSW, and knocked down 46% of them this past Tuesday – yielding an offensive rating of 124.5, which would lead the entire NBA by a comfortable margin if that number was replicated across a full season.

Looking back at the full body of data though, this Sacramento team tends to rely too heavily on sparks of excellence at the offensive end of the floor. The Kings rank 9th in scoring and 13th in offensive rating on the season. However, they rank just 17th in overall net rating due to their defense ranking 17th in points allowed and 14th in defensive rating.

Granted, Sacramento’s defense has taken a step forward, considering they ranked 25th in defensive rating last year. However, the step forward on defense hasn’t been big enough to account for the enormous leap backward they’ve taken on offense – down from 1st in offensive rating to 15th this year.

If the Kings shoot 45%-plus from 3-point range again, they’ll win this game too. However, everything that goes up must come down – which includes Sacramento’s 3-point shooting – and quite frankly, when the Kings revert to the mean from beyond the arc, they have really struggled this season.

The Pelicans are a bit of a mess right now, which is why they are listed as short 1-point favorites in this game – exactly the same spread as their first round Play-In matchup against the Lakers (a much better team).

Brandon Ingram only played 25 minutes against the Lakers as he continues to recover from a knee contusion. Zion Williamson also made an early exit in Tuesday’s contest due to leg soreness after going off for 40 points on 63% from the field. 

Any way you slice it, New Orleans is the superior team in this matchup. The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in net rating, while ranking top-11 in both offensive and defensive rating. 

With that in mind though, the Pelicans simply won’t shoot the longball as frequently as Sacramento – ranking 24th in 3-point attempts per game – and the Kings won’t be able to stop them on defense, regardless of Zion’s status.

So this contest ultimately comes down to whether or not Sacramento catches fire from 3-point range again, and I’m betting they won’t.

Pick: Pelicans ML (+105)

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Kings vs Pelicans Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Friday, April 19
Matchup: Pacific vs Southwest
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Location: New Orleans, LA
Time-TV: TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET

Kings vs Pelicans Betting Stats

7) New Orleans Pelicans
(2nd Place, Southwest)

  • Odds To Win Finals: +6500
  • Odds to Win Conference: +3000
  • SU: 48-35
  • ATS: 38-44
  • O/U: 47-34-1
  • PPG: 115.1
  • OPPG: 110.7

9) Sacramento Kings
(4th Place, Pacific)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +24000
  • Odds to Win Conference: +10000
  • SU: 46-36
  • ATS: 42-39-1
  • O/U: 38-44
  • PPG: 116.6
  • OPPG: 114.8

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