Bears & Broncos Lead Most Improved Team Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The most improved team in the NFL last season was the Jacksonville Jaguars, as the Jaguars went from a record of 3-14 with Urban Meyer holding the play sheet in Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year under center, to a record of 9-8 in Lawrence’s sophomore campaign with Doug Pederson at the helm – a 35% uptick in winning percentage.

Tied for second on the list, was the New York Giants and Detroit Lions, as the G-Men rallied behind first-year head coach Brian Daboll to improve their record from 4-13 to 9-7-1 last season – while the Lions managed to turn 3-13-1 into 9-8 thanks to their offensive scoring average skyrocketing from 19 PPG to 27 PPG last year.

DraftKings defines the “Most Improved Team” as the team to have the biggest increase in regular season wins from the previous season. Let’s see which team the oddsmakers think is destined to make the biggest jump from 2022 to 2023:

NFL - Most Improved Team Betting Odds

The Top 6 most improved teams in the NFL last season all had relatively new head coaches  – the Jaguars, Giants, Lions, Eagles, and Vikings were all led by coaches in either their first or second year with the team.

So, that's why we're seeing a cluster of first and second year head coaches at the top of the odds list heading into this season.

Chicago is the stand-alone favorite at +210, as the Bears prepare for their second season with head coach Matt Eberflus, as well as their third go around with Justin Fields under center. 

The Bears have posted a miserable record of 5-20 in Fields’ 25 career starts, however, adding Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards to their defense should be a tremendous help, and hopefully, Fields will actually have somebody to throw the ball to following the addition of D.J. Moore – Chicago will likely need to win 8-9 games in order to cash tickets in this market.

The second team on the list is Denver at +425.

The Broncos finished 5-12 in their first campaign with a battery of Nathaniel Hacket and Russell Wilson, and truth be told, it was far more disastrous than their record might suggest, as Denver’s defense consistently scratched and clawed to keep them in games throughout the year, but they simply couldn’t get over the hump due to their offense averaging less than 17 PPG.

The Broncos’ defense held the opposing team to 17 points or less in 9-of-17 contests last season, and they won just five of those games.

So, in theory, if Russell Wilson and Co. generated 20 PPG last year, they could’ve flirted with double-digit wins – the pieces are already in place for Denver, the Broncos just need the right puppeteer, and Sean Payton might be just that.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are next on the list at +700, followed by fellow rookie Anthony Richardson and the Colts at +800, and then Derek Carr and the Saints at +850.

The Colts and Texans are both decent options in that price range after finishing 4-12-1 and 3-13-1 last season respectively. Lots of upside, they would only need eight or nine wins to contend in this market – but the Saints coming off a 7-10 season, likely needing 12 or 13 wins to contend? Give me a break. Scratch New Orleans from the list.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are listed at +1100, and Deshaun Watson and the Browns are listed at +1400, with both squads coming off 7-10 finishes last year – which may be tempting as a mid-range longshot, but there’s not much value on the table.

The Vikings jumped from 8-9 in 2022 to 13-4 in 2023, but they were still just the fifth most improved team in the league with a winning percentage uptick of 29% – best case scenario, the Jets and Browns usurp a similar fate.

Last season, the Top 3 most improved teams all won less than 25% of their games the year prior.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that you should rule out any team that wins more than a quarter of their games, but it’s probably best to start at the bottom of last year’s standings and then slowly work your way to the top when it comes to this market.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson