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Broncos vs Chiefs Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 6

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Week 6 of the NFL regular season kicks things off with Thursday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Here's everything you need to know about the Broncos vs Chiefs Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 6.

Broncos vs Chiefs Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 6

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Well, when Sean Payton said, “Everything I heard about last season, we’re doing the opposite,” entering his first campaign as head coach of the Broncos, I don’t think anybody realized that he meant it quite so literally. Last season, the Broncos ranked 32nd in scoring offense and 14th in scoring defense. However, this season, they’ve completely flipped the script, currently ranked 10th in scoring offense and 32nd in scoring defense.

Ultimately, though, the result has been the same (if not worse). The Broncos finished with a record of 5-12 last season, and now, they enter Week 6 of this season sitting 1-4 – and their path to redemption certainly won’t be easy, as three of their next four matchups will be played against the Chiefs and Bills.

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According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the lookahead line for this matchup was Chiefs -10.5 at the SuperBook, which is the same number they reopened at on Sunday night, and as of Wednesday afternoon, where the line still stands at most shops. SuperBook risk advisor Chase Michaelson noted “Denver has continued to disappoint, with another uninspiring loss to the Jets today…We will need Denver here. The public is all the way back in on Kansas City after showing some rustiness early in the season."

Denver’s defense has been historically bad through the first five weeks of this season. The Broncos 181 points allowed is tied for the second-most through five games in the Super Bowl era, according to Action Network’s Evan Abrams. Over the last 20 years, only eight teams have allowed 35+ PPG entering their sixth game of the season or later. The Broncos are allowing a league-worst 36.2 PPG this season.

The Chiefs have posted an incredible record of 64-18 over the last five regular seasons. However, they have also become somewhat notorious for struggling against the spread when tagged as heavy favorites. Kansas City has been a double-digit favorite in 24 matchups with Mahomes under center. In those contests, the Chiefs are 22-2 SU, but just 10-13-1 ATS.

In the grand scheme of things, home teams on Thursday night are 23-27 SU and 19-31 ATS over the last three years or so. That said, it’s tough to imagine the Chiefs losing this contest outright. The Broncos defense has allowed 28+ points on 385+ total yards in four straight games. So the sky is the limit for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense in this matchup. However, on the other side of that same coin, Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has scored 30+ points in two of their last four games, and they’ve scored 20+ points in four straight.

The Chiefs are 15-0 SU in their last 15 matchups against Denver, but note, they are also 0-3 ATS in their last three meetings. I’m backing the Chiefs to beat Denver by more than a field goal in a relatively high-scoring game via a 6-point teaser.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Broncos 20
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5 / Over 41.5 (6-Point Teaser)

DEN @ KC Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +7 -110 +7 -110 +7.5 -120 +7 -110 +6.5 even +6.5 -105 +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -7 -110 -7 -110 -7.5 even -7 -110 -6.5 -120 -6.5 -141 -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o23.5 -115 o23.5 -120 o23.5 -115 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -120 o23.5 -127 o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u23.5 -105 u23.5 even u23.5 -105 u23.5 -110 u23.5 even u23.5 +102 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +280 +275 +295 +300 +250 +255 +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -360 -350 -375 -385 -330 -400 -590  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +4 -110 N/A N/A +5.5 -115 +4.5 -105 +5.5 -113 +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -4 -110 N/A N/A -5.5 -105 -4.5 -115 -5.5 -110 -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o23.5 -120 N/A N/A o23.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u23.5 even N/A N/A u23.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u23.5 -113 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +215 N/A N/A N/A +215 +205 +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -260 N/A N/A N/A -270 -265 -590  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +3.5 -130 +3.5 -130 +3.5 -130 +3.5 -115 +2.5 +104 +3.5 -125 +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -3.5 +110 -3.5 even -3.5 +110 -3.5 -105 -2.5 -126 -3.5 even -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o9.5 -110 o9.5 -125 o9.5 -118 o7.5 +110 o7.5 -122 o9.5 -117 o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u9.5 -110 u9.5 -105 u9.5 -102 u7.5 -130 u7.5 even u9.5 -106 u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +210 +200 +220 +215 +198 +210 +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -250 -275 -270 -267 -250 -265 -590  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +3.5 -110 N/A +6.5 -105 N/A +3.5 -122 N/A +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -3.5 -110 N/A -6.5 -125 N/A -3.5 even N/A -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o14.5 -105 N/A o9.5 -150 N/A o7.5 +134 N/A o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u14.5 -115 N/A u9.5 +120 N/A u7.5 -182 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +200 N/A +230 N/A +196 N/A +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -240 N/A -285 N/A -235 N/A -590  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +2.5 +105 N/A +2.5 +105 N/A +2.5 +106 N/A +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -2.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -128 N/A -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o9.5 -135 N/A o9.5 -125 N/A o8.5 -136 N/A o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u9.5 +115 N/A u9.5 +105 N/A u8.5 +104 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +180 N/A +180 N/A +176 N/A +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -220 N/A -218 N/A -215 N/A -590  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +2.5 -105 N/A +2.5 -110 N/A +2.5 -108 N/A +10.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -2.5 -115 N/A -2.5 -110 N/A -2.5 -112 N/A -10.5 -105  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A o13.5 -115 N/A o13.5 -105 N/A o13.5 -110 N/A o47.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A u13.5 -105 N/A u13.5 -115 N/A u13.5 -110 N/A u47.5 -115  
Final
Denver Broncos 111 Broncos
N/A +165 N/A +150 N/A +154 N/A +430  
Kansas City Chiefs 112 Chiefs
N/A -185 N/A -180 N/A -180 N/A -590  

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, October 12, 2023
Matchup: AFC West
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Time-TV: Amazon Prime Video, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 6 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

The Broncos defense looked pretty good back in Week 1, as they managed to hold Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders to just 17 points on 261 total yards in a one-point loss. However, in retrospect, I’m not sure how much credit Denver deserves for that performance, considering the Raiders still haven’t crossed the 20-point mark in any of their contests, and their 17-point outing against Denver is tied for their second-best performance of the season.

Since their season opener, the Broncos have surrendered point totals of 35 to Washington, 70 to Miami, 28 to Chicago, and 31 to Zach Wilson and the Jets. Anything less than 30 points should be considered a huge disappointment for Kansas City this Thursday.

The Broncos are 0-10 SU in their last 10 matchups against Kansas City. (Getty)

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

The Chiefs offense stumbled out to a shaky start to the season, highlighted by Patrick Mahomes and company scoring 20 points or less in back-to-back matchups out of the gate prior to averaging 30.3 PPG across their last three.

Quite frankly, I chose to tease the over in this spot because the Chiefs very well may light up the scoreboard for 40+ points on their own. Surprisingly enough, though, the main thing keeping me from betting the outright over in this matchup is the strength of the Chiefs defense thus far. 

Kansas City’s defense has surrendered 21 points or less in all five of their contests, and they held the Jaguars and Bears to 10 points or less. If the Chiefs defense shuts down Denver to the extent they did against Jacksonville and Chicago, the over might be in trouble on Thursday night. But as long as we get 10+ points from Denver, teasing that number down should be a relatively safe play.

Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of Denver's last 10 games.
  • The Broncos are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Kansas City's last nine games.
  • The Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Kansas City's last six games against Denver.
  • The Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last nine home games.
  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Kansas City.
  • The Broncos are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against Kansas City.
  • The Broncos are 2-12 SU in their last 14 road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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