Chiefs vs Lions Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 1

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Week 1 of the NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday night with a matchup that has the makings of a high octane non-conference showdown between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs Lions Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 1.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Betting Prediction, Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 1

According to Patrick Everson, the Chiefs originally opened as 7-point favorites over Detroit in this matchup back in mid-May, and that number climbed all the way up to -7.5 in some markets by July. However, following Tuesday’s news break of a Travis Kelce knee injury that could potentially keep him sidelined, that number has plummeted to Chiefs -4.5 at most books.

Kansas City -4.5 may feel like a discounted price that’s far too tempting to pass up, but be mindful of the notion that laying anything more than a field goal usually isn’t a good sign for Patrick Mahomes and company. The Chiefs went 4-10 ATS in matchups in which they were favored by 3.5 points or more last season, and they have posted a record of 15-28 ATS in matchups of that nature over the last three seasons.

There’s a lot to like about Detroit in this matchup. The Lions went 8-2 to close last season, and Jared Goff has consistently performed above expectations in Week 1 throughout his NFL career. Goff is a perfect 6-0 ATS in Week 1 contests since entering the league, despite the Lions losing two straight season openers with Goff under center straight-up (SF & PHI).

But before you go rushing to bet the Lions, it’s also important to note this Kansas City team’s historical excellence at home, as well as in season openers. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU in Week 1 matchups with Andy Reid at the helm. They also own a record of 31-7 SU at Arrowhead since handing the keys to Mahomes back in 2018. 

There’s two sides of a coin to all of these trends, but push comes to shove, combining Detroit with the over in a six-point teaser is probably your best bet at cashing a winner here. The Lions surrendered over 25 PPG last year, and didn’t do much to improve their 28th ranked scoring defense this offseason. The Chiefs defense is also short of stellar, and there's a good chance that they'll be without their best player on that side of the script in Chris Jones.

When the schedule was originally announced, it seemed slightly odd for the Lions to be the chosen foe for Kansas City in this season-opening matchup. But now that it’s finally here, I’m fully on board with the idea. The floor for the amount of points scored in this game is pretty high given the imbalance between these teams' offensive and defensive units, and in theory, neither squad should be able to pull away by a super wide margin.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Lions 23
Best Bet: Lions +10.5 / Over 46.5 (6-Point Teaser)

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, September 7, 2023
Matchup: NFC North vs AFC West
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

Very few teams received as much offseason love as Detroit heading into this year, and rightfully so. The Lions went 8-2 to close last season and finished 5th in the league in scoring at 26.6 PPG. However, it’s going to be tough for this team to elevate to the next level if their defense doesn’t improve significantly upon the 25.1 PPG that they surrendered last year.

The Lions offense is good enough to keep this game close, but in order to escape Arrowhead with a win, they are going to need some big time stops in high leverage moments down the stretch, and as a bettor, I just don’t want to find myself in the camp that gets burned by Detroit’s subpar defense late in the fourth quarter. 

In my opinion, banking on both sides to score a decent amount of points, and grabbing the +10.5 with Detroit seems much safer than flirting with the actual spread set for this one. Shop around for teasers and alternate lines.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

No matter what the line is, you can almost always make the case that Kansas City is going to cover the spread set by the oddsmakers – and it’s tough to argue against that notion. The Chiefs have reached five straight AFC Championship Games, and they aren’t particularly quiet about it, having ranked Top 6 in scoring in five straight campaigns.

But the reality is, even though the Chiefs are 64-16 SU in regular season matchups with Mahomes under center, they quietly struggle against the spread – owning a record of just just 30-38 ATS when laying -3.5 points or more during that timeframe.

Historically speaking, the reigning Super Bowl champs have fared pretty well in the subsequent season opener – with the reigning champs boasting a record of 10-6-2 ATS in Week 1 over the last 18 seasons. However, as we’ve come to realize over the years, this Chiefs squad is a totally different beast. Trends that encompass other Super Bowl winners doesn’t necessarily mean squat when it comes to this dynasty in the making. So as always, tread with caution.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against Kansas City.
• The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games.
• The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last seven home games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight straight matchups between Kansas City and Detroit.
• The Lions are 2-6 SU in their last eight matchups against Kansas City.
• The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1600 to unlock BetMGM's welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Sports betting is live in North Carolina! Check out our list of North Carolina Sportsbooks and get ready for the NFL season.
• Our DraftKings Promo Code earns users $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up today!

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson