2025 Circa Survivor Pool: Rams, Cards Losses Blow Away Half the Field
In NFL Week 5, Circa Survivor was like a bad flight. Contestants experienced heavy turbulence.
The week began with the 8-point home favorite Los Angeles Rams losing outright. On Sunday, the 7.5-point home favorite Arizona Cardinals tumbled, as well. Those two teams were the top selections in Week 5.
Then the Buffalo Bills, the fifth-most-selected team, lost on Sunday night.
Read on for the latest on 2025 Circa Survivor and its record $18.7 million pot, and check back regularly for updates throughout the season. And remember, VegasInsider is your source for all things NFL odds.
(Feature image: Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images)
2025 Circa Survivor
Survive and Advance
WEEK 5 UPDATE: There were 12,404 entries alive entering Week 5. As the week closed with the Jacksonville Jaguars beating the Kansas City Chiefs 31-24 – and knocking out another 23 entries – the field is down to 4,646.
"Carnage everywhere you look. Survivor has officially begun. Every 'dog has its day, and Week 5 was certainly it," Circa Sports director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson said.
The fallout of 7,758 entries represents a 62.5% drop in one week. And 53.8% of that plunge came from two results:
- Los Angeles Rams' 26-23 overtime loss to the undermanned San Francisco 49ers
- Arizona Cardinals' 22-21 loss to the Tennessee Titans
The Rams were the most-selected team of NFL Week 5, with 3,524 entries eliminated. It was a massive hit to the Circa Survivor field, nearly double the previous largest loser of Green Bay Packers in Week 3 (1,817).
"Injuries pushed the line out close to double digits, and the Circa Survivors piled on. Sadly, they couldn't sneak one through on Thursday night," Circa Sports director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson said.
In fact, the Rams carnage alone was more than the total eliminated in any previous week. Week 3 was the previous high, with 3,154 entries eliminated, almost entirely due to the Packers and Atlanta Falcons (1,179).
But the damage wasn't done. On Sunday, Arizona had a 21-6 lead vs. the winless Tennessee Titans. And it looked as if it would be 28-6 after Emari Demercado ripped off a 72-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter.
However, Demercado became the latest player to celebrate one step to early, dropping the ball before crossing the goal line. The ball rolled out of bounds in the end zone for a touchback.
Tennessee made the most of a second chance, scoring the final 16 points to post a 22-21 upset, with the win coming on a final-seconds field goal. That wiped out another 3,152 entries.
"Thursday madness carried over to today. What an ending. Heartbreak City for Circa Survivors and anyone with Cardinals moneyline," Benson said.
And that comment came before the Buffalo Bills, 7.5-point home favorites, fell to the New England Patriots 23-20 in Sunday Night Football. That took out another 756 entries.
The season began with 18,718 entries in Circa Survivor, at $1,000 apiece, for a whopping $18.718 million prize pool. Now, as noted above, it's down to 4,651.
Rounding out the top five in Week 5 selections:
- Indianapolis Colts 2,408
- Detroit Lions 1,719
- Buffalo Bills 756
As usual, there were forgetful entrants, though Week 5 saw the fewest all season. Five entries failed to submit a pick by the 4 p.m. PT Saturday deadline. For the season, 85 entries exited by missing the pick deadline.
Check back later for a Circa Survivor Week 5 update. And for more insights, hit our NFL Odds Week 5 report.
Circa Survivor Grandissimo
WEEK 5 UPDATE: Of the 69 entries that ponied up $100,000 apiece, for a $6.9 million prize pool, 55 made it to NFL Week 5 of Circa Survivor Grandissimo. But much like the $1,000-apiece Circa Survivor, the Cardinals and Rams left a big mark, eliminating 45 entries.
Arizona was taken on 20 entries and Los Angeles on 15. Buffalo's loss took out another four entries.
So only 16 entries remain for Week 6. Ten advanced with the Detroit Lions, five with the Indianapolis Colts and one with the Minnesota Vikings.
Circa Million
WEEK 4 UPDATE: Like last year, Circa Million remains at a $6 million guaranteed pot. And like last year, Circa Sports is absorbing overlay. The 2025 Circa Million reached 5,685 entries ($5.685 million), so the overlay is $315,000.
Circa Million calls for entrants to make five NFL picks each week against the spread. After Week 4, four entries are tied for first at 17-3. Those four entries split the first-quarter prize money, winning $66,250 apiece.
There's then a 13-way tie for fifth place at 16-4.
In dead last is the entry of C-Webb-1, at 2-18 through four weeks. But one of the beauties of Circa Million is that performing poorly is rewarded. There are end-of-season prizes – $100,000 for last/$50,000 second-to-last – and also quarterly prizes.
So C-Webb-1 just pocketed $25,000 for the worst first-quarter performance.
Previous Circa Survivor Updates
Click here to see our prior Circa Survivor updates
Natural Progression
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: In 2024, Circa Sports guaranteed $10 million to the winner of its Survivor contest. So the question was: Would there be 10,000 entries, to cover the cost of that guarantee?
The answer was a resounding yes, with 14,266 entries, which actually took the prize pool to $14.266 million. Eight entries went 20-for-20 to split that massive pot.
So Stevens was fine bumping this season's Circa Survivor guarantee to $15 million. Jeff Benson, director of sportsbook operations for Circa Sports, deemed it a natural progression for the contest's sixth season.
"Survivor has seen huge growth for us. We just felt growing the number from $10 million guaranteed to $15 million guaranteed makes sense for us," Benson said.
To remind: While the NFL season has only 18 weeks, Circa Survivor raises the level of difficulty by making Thanksgiving Day and Christmas their own separate weeks. So it takes 20 successful picks to survive the season.
Another Big Leap
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: The guarantee means Circa needs at least 15,000 entries to cover its cost. Benson has zero concern about hitting that number and in fact expects another big leap in the number of entries.
Each contestant can have up to 10 entries. Many contestants put in at least two or three entries, and some go the full 10. With $15 million on the line, laying out $5,000 or $10,000 might seem worth it, for what amounts to a season's worth of NFL betting – if you can stay alive.
“I think we’ll approach 20,000 in terms of number of entries," Benson said. "Last year, we grew about 5,000 entries. I could see us growing somewhere in a similar vein.”
If that happens, then the purse approaches a whopping $20 million.
Circa Grandissimo
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: This year, Circa is adding a second Survivor contest: Circa Grandissimo. It's high stakes, at $100,000 per entry, maximum two entries. And the guaranteed prize pool is $1.5 million.
Benson said the timing is right for such a contest.
"Circa Survivor has been super popular, where we’ve seen growth in the five years we’ve done it. Obviously, we didn’t want to do anything to cannibalize Circa Survivor," Benson said. "So we wanted something that was at a different price point, and that maybe felt much more exclusive and high-end.
"Obviously, people have been clamoring for a high-end Survivor contest for a long time."
And all Circa needs is 15 entries to cover the guarantee.
“I think we’ll probably get 15. We’ve already had somebody reach out who’s gonna be here [Friday], signing up for the $100,000," Benson said.
So there's now Circa Survivor, which could have 20,000 entries, and on the complete opposite end, Circa Grandissimo, with perhaps 20-30 entries. Benson is intrigued to see how the high-stakes contest plays out.
“When you’re playing against a smaller group of people than the thousands that will be in Circa Survivor, you’re thinking about the game theory that’s behind that," he said. "So it’ll be interesting to see how people approach playing Circa Grandissimo vs. how they approach Circa Survivor.”
Circa Million
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: Circa Million was the contest that started it all for Circa Sports, six seasons ago. So of course, it's back for a seventh year. Circa Million is a picks contest, five plays each week against the spread.
Like Circa Survivor, it's $1,000 per entry, maximum 10 entries. In 2024, Stevens made the Circa Million guarantee $6 million, and the number of entries came up just short of covering the cost.
So Circa decided to stick with $6 million again this year, with the season-long winner guaranteed $1 million.
"Last year, we had 5,817 entries, so not quite to that 6,000 mark. But certainly pretty big growth, up about 400 people vs. the previous year," Benson said. "I think we’ll get 6,000 this year, and then maybe we can talk about an increased guarantee in the Million in future years."
Note that all three contests are only available in Nevada. So if you want to get involved, then you've got to make the trip to Las Vegas to get signed up and to arrange for a proxy service.