2025 Circa Survivor Pool: 49ers, Ravens, Seahawks Key in Week 12
Circa Survivor is on to Week 12, and there's a clear delineation between teams the remaining contestants trust and don't trust.
Suffice it to say that if the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens or Seattle Seahawks lose, there'll be significant carnage. If two lose, more than half the remaining field is gone, and if all three lose, 82.6% of the final 934 entries will hit the bricks.
Read on for the latest on 2025 Circa Survivor and its record $18.7 million pot, and check back regularly for updates throughout the season. And remember, VegasInsider is your source for all things NFL odds.
(Feature image: Brian Fluharty/Imagn Images)
2025 Circa Survivor
Survive and Advance
LATEST UPDATE: Entering Week 12, there were 939 entries remaining in Circa Survivor, which began with a record 18,718 entries. Only five entries played the Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Thursday night game.
Those five entries all took Buffalo and were summarily dismissed when Houston posted a 23-19 upset at home.
So entering Sunday, the field is at 934. The San Francisco 49ers, who host the Carolina Panthers on Monday night, are the most-selected team, taken on 298 entries. Close behind are the Baltimore Ravens (267) for their home tilt vs. the New York Jets.
The third-highest choice is the Seattle Seahawks (211), who visit the Tennessee Titans. Then the numbers substantially drop off:
- Detroit Lions (60), vs. New York Giants
- Green Bay Packers (48), vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Las Vegas Raiders (29), vs. Cleveland Browns
No other team was selected on more than five entries.
For 2025 Circa Survivor contestants who get through Sunday/Monday, the real challenge begins. NFL Week 13 is actually two weeks in the contest. The first consists of the three Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game:
- Packers vs. Lions
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Back to Week 12: For the fourth straight week – and in fact, the fourth time all season – all remaining entries got their picks in before Saturday's 4 p.m. PT deadline. On the season, 98 entries have been eliminated by way of missing the deadline.
As noted above, the season began with a record 18,718 entries in Circa Survivor, at $1,000 apiece, for a whopping $18.718 million prize pool. With 934 entries remaining – 5% of the original field – the implied value of each entry is $20,041.
Check back later for more Circa Survivor Week 12 updates. And for more insights, hit our NFL Odds Week 12 report.
Circa Survivor Grandissimo
LATEST UPDATE: Of the 69 entries that ponied up $100,000 apiece, for a $6.9 million prize pool, only six remain in Circa Survivor Grandissimo for Week 12.
None of those six dabbled with the Bills-Texans Thursday night game. Three took the Seahawks, two took the 49ers and one took the Lions.
The implied value of each of the remaining six entries went unchanged from Week 11 to Week 12: a whopping $1.15 million, almost double that of two weeks ago ($627,273).
"Things get real when the average implied value of your entry is now worth seven figures," Benson said.
Circa Million
LATEST UPDATE: Like last year, Circa Million remains at a $6 million guaranteed pot. And like last year, Circa Sports is absorbing overlay. The 2025 Circa Million reached 5,685 entries ($5.685 million), so the overlay is $315,000.
Circa Million calls for entrants to make five NFL picks each week against the spread. After Week 11, one entry leads the way with an impressive 42-13 record. But that entry – named Potato Kmish-1 – is just a point ahead of second-place Coynehop-1.
As always, it's worth noting that at season's end, Circa Million pays out $100,000 to the contestant with the worst record and $50,000 to the entrant with the second-worst mark. At the moment, one entry has the lead at 13-42, two games clear of a four-way tie for second at 15-40.
Previous Circa Survivor Updates
Click here to see our prior Circa Survivor updates
Natural Progression
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: In 2024, Circa Sports guaranteed $10 million to the winner of its Survivor contest. So the question was: Would there be 10,000 entries, to cover the cost of that guarantee?
The answer was a resounding yes, with 14,266 entries, which actually took the prize pool to $14.266 million. Eight entries went 20-for-20 to split that massive pot.
So Stevens was fine bumping this season's Circa Survivor guarantee to $15 million. Jeff Benson, director of sportsbook operations for Circa Sports, deemed it a natural progression for the contest's sixth season.
"Survivor has seen huge growth for us. We just felt growing the number from $10 million guaranteed to $15 million guaranteed makes sense for us," Benson said.
To remind: While the NFL season has only 18 weeks, Circa Survivor raises the level of difficulty by making Thanksgiving Day and Christmas their own separate weeks. So it takes 20 successful picks to survive the season.
Another Big Leap
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: The guarantee means Circa needs at least 15,000 entries to cover its cost. Benson has zero concern about hitting that number and in fact expects another big leap in the number of entries.
Each contestant can have up to 10 entries. Many contestants put in at least two or three entries, and some go the full 10. With $15 million on the line, laying out $5,000 or $10,000 might seem worth it, for what amounts to a season's worth of NFL betting – if you can stay alive.
“I think we’ll approach 20,000 in terms of number of entries," Benson said. "Last year, we grew about 5,000 entries. I could see us growing somewhere in a similar vein.”
If that happens, then the purse approaches a whopping $20 million.
Circa Grandissimo
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: This year, Circa is adding a second Survivor contest: Circa Grandissimo. It's high stakes, at $100,000 per entry, maximum two entries. And the guaranteed prize pool is $1.5 million.
Benson said the timing is right for such a contest.
"Circa Survivor has been super popular, where we’ve seen growth in the five years we’ve done it. Obviously, we didn’t want to do anything to cannibalize Circa Survivor," Benson said. "So we wanted something that was at a different price point, and that maybe felt much more exclusive and high-end.
"Obviously, people have been clamoring for a high-end Survivor contest for a long time."
And all Circa needs is 15 entries to cover the guarantee.
“I think we’ll probably get 15. We’ve already had somebody reach out who’s gonna be here [Friday], signing up for the $100,000," Benson said.
So there's now Circa Survivor, which could have 20,000 entries, and on the complete opposite end, Circa Grandissimo, with perhaps 20-30 entries. Benson is intrigued to see how the high-stakes contest plays out.
“When you’re playing against a smaller group of people than the thousands that will be in Circa Survivor, you’re thinking about the game theory that’s behind that," he said. "So it’ll be interesting to see how people approach playing Circa Grandissimo vs. how they approach Circa Survivor.”
Circa Million
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: Circa Million was the contest that started it all for Circa Sports, six seasons ago. So of course, it's back for a seventh year. Circa Million is a picks contest, five plays each week against the spread.
Like Circa Survivor, it's $1,000 per entry, maximum 10 entries. In 2024, Stevens made the Circa Million guarantee $6 million, and the number of entries came up just short of covering the cost.
So Circa decided to stick with $6 million again this year, with the season-long winner guaranteed $1 million.
"Last year, we had 5,817 entries, so not quite to that 6,000 mark. But certainly pretty big growth, up about 400 people vs. the previous year," Benson said. "I think we’ll get 6,000 this year, and then maybe we can talk about an increased guarantee in the Million in future years."
Note that all three contests are only available in Nevada. So if you want to get involved, then you've got to make the trip to Las Vegas to get signed up and to arrange for a proxy service.