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Cowboys vs Chargers Picks, Predictions, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 6

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Week 6 of the NFL regular season concludes with Monday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. Coverage begins from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Cowboys vs Chargers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 6.

Cowboys vs Chargers Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Monday Night Football Week 6

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Last week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers was supposed to be a clash of titans in the NFC, as well as a highly competitive playoff grudge match. Prior to last Sunday, many people believed (or still believe) that Dallas, Philly, and San Francisco stood alone as the Top 3 teams in the conference. However, after getting stomped by a score of 42-10 in Santa Clara to drop to a record of 3-2, the football community is left questioning whether or not the Cowboys truly belong in that conversation. But fortunately, we should learn a lot about Dallas this week.

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the spread for this contest opened at Cowboys -3 in the Week 6 odds market prior to their blowout loss on Sunday night. The Cowboys-Chargers line then came off the board once Cowboys-49ers kicked off. The spread eventually reopened at Cowboys -2 at TwinSpires, which stood until Wednesday afternoon when it moved to -2.5. But that number appears to be heading south as kickoff approaches due to the Chargers netting 56% of spread tickets 59% of spread dollars early in the week.

Let’s take a trip back to Week 3, though. The Chargers opened the season with back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Titans, and everybody seemed eager to bury Brandon Staley and the current iteration of this Los Angeles team at 0-2. However, after bouncing back with consecutive victories over the Vikings and Raiders, the pendulum has quickly swung back to all confidence being restored in the Bolts. But quite frankly, I’m still not ready to jump back on the Chargers bandwagon after sneaking away with a pair of one-score victories against two subpar football teams, to put it nicely.

Justin Herbert is an awesome quarterback, and the Chargers offense is truly dangerous – currently ranked Top 7 in both scoring offense and yardage per play. However, push comes to shove, I just don’t think L. A.’s defense is going to be able to hold its ground in this matchup.

The Chargers defense was shredded for an average of 29 points on 451 yards per game in the first three weeks of the season. Prior to their bye week, though, they finally came to life in a 24-17 win over Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders. However, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that performance. The Raiders have fallen short of the 20-point mark in all five of their contests, including a matchup against Denver’s bottom-ranked defensive unit. So, the Chargers weren’t exactly the first bad defense to find success against Vegas.

The Cowboys were embarrassed in primetime last week. So now, with a shot at immediate redemption and a chip on their shoulder, they head out west to face a Chargers defense that has surrendered 24+ points in three of four matchups, and 27+ points in two of four. All things considered, the Bolts might need to score 35+ points in order to win this game, and while Justin Herbert is certainly capable of pulling it off, my confidence level in Brandon Staley is incredibly low when it comes to his ability to push all the correct buttons in the crucial moments of competitive battles. I think Dallas bounces back on Monday night.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Chargers 23
Best Bet: Cowboys -1.5 (-110)

Cowboys vs Chargers Betting Resources

Date: Monday, October 16, 2023
Matchup: NFC East vs AFC West
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, California
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 6 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Through the first five weeks of the season, Dak Prescott is averaging just 212 passing yards per game, which puts him on pace for the second-lowest passing yardage number of his career. He averaged a career-worst 208 passing yards back in 2017, but aside from that, he hasn’t fallen short of 229 yards per game in any of his professional campaigns.

In Prescott’s defense, the Cowboys have played in some really lopsided football games early in the season, for better or worse, which has led to a dip in his passing stats out of the gate. He completed just 14 of 23 pass attempts for 143 yards in a 40-0 win over the Giants in Week 1, and he connected on just 14 of 24 attempts for 153 yards in a 42-10 loss to the 49ers in Week 5. 

However, in the Cowboys’ three relatively normal outings wedged between those two performances, Mike McCarthy has given Prescott carte blanche to let it rip in the passing game. He averaged 255 passing yards on 37.3 pass attempts per game in Weeks 2 through 4, and after playing awful in a blowout loss last week, the stage is perfectly set for a big bounce back performance for the Dallas aerial attack against a Chargers secondary that enters the week ranked 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt and dead last in passing yardage allowed per game.

The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in their last five road games against the Chargers. (Getty)

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had a pretty tame game plan for the passing attack in a 24-17 win over the Raiders last week, as Herbert completed just 13 of 24 pass attempts for 167 yards and one touchdown on the way to a 24-17 victory for Los Angeles.

But speaking of coaches allowing their quarterback to let it rip in the passing game, that’s exactly what Moore did in his first three games as Chargers OC. In Weeks 1 through 3, Herbert averaged 313 passing yards on 40.3 pass attempts per game to go along with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

The Cowboys secondary has been stingy in the passing game this season, currently ranked sixth in opponent completion percentage and 13th in yards allowed per pass attempt. However, in a contest in which the Chargers defense is expected to surrender a bunch of points, Herbert props might be worth a look, despite the tough situational draw.

Cowboys vs Chargers Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Dallas' last nine games.
  • The Cowboys are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers' last six games.
  • The Chargers are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 SU in their last five home games.
  • The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Chargers.
  • The Cowboys are 2-4 SU in their last six games against the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Dallas' last seven road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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