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Cowboys vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks, Odds | Sunday NFL Week 16

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Here's everything you need to know about the Cowboys vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions, and Odds for NFL Week 16.

Week 16 of the NFL regular season continues with a heavyweight non-conference showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.

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Cowboys vs Dolphins Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday NFL Week 16

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

No more than 10 days ago, the hype surrounding the current iteration of this Dallas team was at an all-time high. The Cowboys entered last week’s matchup against Buffalo following wins in six of their last seven contests, while averaging 38 PPG on offense and allowing just 19 PPG on defense during that span. They were coming off an impressive blowout win over Philly, and Dak Prescott was listed alongside Brock Purdy as co-favorite to win MVP. Life was good for Dallas. Until all of a sudden, it wasn’t…

Critics of this Cowboys team continue to point out their incredibly weak strength of schedule. So, the jury eagerly sat down to see how they would perform in another measuring stick matchup against Buffalo in their latest affair – and the Cowboys immediately self-destructed, as the Bills jumped out to a 21-3 lead and Dallas was never able to recover on the way to an ugly 31-10 blowout.

Personally, I never believed Dallas was a top shelf contender in the first place. I feel like a broken record, but I’ll say it again. This is the same ole’ Cowboys team as years past: almost surely destined to have an excellent regular season campaign and then underachieve in the playoffs.

That said, the Cowboys can’t “underachieve in the playoffs” if there’s little-to-no expectation set based on their regular season performance. So this feels like a good time to remind everyone that the Cowboys are still a very good football team, because the betting audience has quickly abandoned them.

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, TwinSpires originally opened the market for this contest at Dolphins -2, and that number has held relatively steady throughout the week despite the book taking roughly 63% of tickets and 59% of the money on Miami as of Wednesday evening.

However, I’m genuinely surprised by the betting splits for this matchup. If you are going to ding Dallas for failing to beat good teams, you have to do the same for Miami. The Dolphins haven’t won a single game against an above .500 team. The best win on their resume thus far came against Denver who currently sits at 7-7 – and similarly to Dallas, the Fins also got steamrolled in a pair of measuring stick matchups against Buffalo and Philly.

Perfectly balanced, as all things should be. The Cowboys were placed on a pedestal for running up the score on bad teams – and now, their defense is underrated as a result of last week’s blowout loss. But I’m still not overly confident in their ability to win big games on the road. Regarding the total, however, OU 49.5 is way too steep. I like the under.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Dolphins 20
Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-110)

DAL @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -125 +1.5 -130 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -120 +1.5 -125 +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +105 -0.5 +105 -0.5 even -0.5 even -1.5 +102 -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o24 -105 o23.5 -120 N/A o24 -115 o24.5 +102 o24.5 even o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u24 -115 u23.5 -100 N/A u24 -105 u24.5 -122 u24.5 -124 u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 -105 -100 -105 +105 -102 -105 +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -115 -122 -115 -125 -118 -120 -124  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -125 +1.5 -140 N/A +0.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -136 +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +120 N/A -0.5 -105 N/A -1.5 +110 -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o23.5 -120 o23.5 -120 N/A o23.5 -115 N/A o23.5 -117 o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u23.5 even u23.5 -100 N/A u23.5 -105 N/A u23.5 -107 u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 -105 -104 N/A N/A N/A -105 +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -115 -112 N/A N/A N/A -120 -124  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -140 +1.5 -146 +0.5 -160 +0.5 -145 +0.5 -155 +1.5 -167 +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +120 -1.5 +120 -0.5 +125 -0.5 +122 -0.5 +130 -1.5 +135 -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o9.5 -125 o8.5 -124 N/A o9.5 -120 o9.5 -120 o9.5 -132 o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u9.5 +105 u8.5 +102 N/A u9.5 even u9.5 even u9.5 +102 u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 +105 +102 -105 +105 even -108 +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -125 -124 -125 -125 -120 -115 -124  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -130 +1.5 -146 N/A N/A +2.5 +135 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +110 -1.5 +120 N/A N/A -2.5 -175 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o13.5 -125 o7.5 +118 N/A N/A o8.5 -120 N/A o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u13.5 +105 u7.5 -158 N/A N/A u8.5 -110 N/A u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 -105 -102 N/A N/A -110 N/A +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -115 -120 N/A N/A -110 N/A -124  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -155 +1.5 -162 N/A N/A +0.5 -142 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +130 -1.5 +134 N/A N/A -0.5 +120 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o9.5 -120 o10.5 +106 N/A N/A o9.5 -120 N/A o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u9.5 even u10.5 -138 N/A N/A u9.5 even N/A u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 -105 -102 N/A N/A +105 N/A +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -115 -120 N/A N/A -125 N/A -124  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-1.5 -105 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -160 N/A N/A +0.5 -135 N/A +1.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
+1.5 -115 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +130 N/A N/A -0.5 +114 N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
o52.5 -110 o13.5 -115 o13.5 -120 N/A N/A o13.5 -120 N/A o48.5 -110  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
u52.5 -110 u13.5 -105 u13.5 -102 N/A N/A u13.5 even N/A u48.5 -110  
Final
Dallas Cowboys 471 Cowboys
-118 -105 -106 N/A N/A -105 N/A +106  
Miami Dolphins 472 Dolphins
-102 -115 -114 N/A N/A -115 N/A -124  

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Cowboys vs Dolphins Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, December 24
Matchup: NFC East vs. AFC East
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Time-TV: FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 16 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Cowboys vs Dolphins pick to get bonus bets!

Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Not too long ago, the football community seemed genuinely concerned about the future of this Dallas team. The Cowboys got crushed by San Francisco in Week 5 to fall to a record of 3-2 (L, 42-10), and then followed that up with an ugly win over the Chargers in Week 6 (W, 20-17).

But lo and behold, after running up the score on a bunch of below-average defensive units in four straight games (NYG, CAR, WAS, SEA), all of the stat nerds immediately jumped back on the Cowboys bandwagon – and I guess, who could blame them? They put up 640 yards of total offense against a terrible Giants team. And they scored 40-plus points against WAS and SEA. Impressive stuff, right?

Well, the Cowboys finally received a heavy dose of karma in their most recent outing as Buffalo managed to give them a taste of their own medicine in a 31-10 blowout last week – and as a result, the hype surrounding this Dallas team has come to a screeching halt.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Some people are calling this game the “Fraud Bowl” and for a good reason. The loser of this matchup will remain comfortably positioned for a playoff spot, however, they will also still have one win (or zero) against teams above .500. The Dolphins have looked great against bad teams for the most part, but they tend to fold whenever the spotlight centers on them. 

Miami posted wins in matchups against the Chargers, Patriots (2), Jets (2), Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Broncos and Commanders – and their losses have come against the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs and Titans, with three of those losses coming by 7+ points and the other coming as a 13-point home favorite (TEN).

Cowboys vs Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • The Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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