Super Bowl Baby Boom Odds 2026: NFL Cities Where Celebration Could Last Longest

How to read the ranking

Each percentage represents a city’s relative likelihood within this dataset. Higher percentages indicate stronger underlying conditions for a post-season baby bump compared to other NFL metros — not a guarantee, and not a betting market.
Think of it as reading the room before kickoff.

Key findings

• Houston ranks #1 overall. At 60%, it has the strongest combination of high birth rates and late-season fan momentum in the league.
• Cities in higher–birth-rate states rank higher. Southern metros dominate the top of the list because they start with more births, making any post-season increase easier to register.
• Charlotte and Indianapolis follow closely. Both sit at 57%, driven by strong fan engagement that stayed high throughout the season.
• Late-season momentum matters more than early hype. Cities like Denver (53%) and Seattle (52%) ranked high because fan excitement stayed elevated into December.
• Big markets don’t automatically rank high. New York and Los Angeles draw attention, but lower birth rates and spread-out fan bases keep their probabilities lower.
• Midwestern cities land mostly in the middle. Places like Cleveland (46%) and Minnesota (44%) benefit from loyal fans, but average birth rates cap their upside.
• Washington, D.C. ranks last. At 10%, it finishes at the bottom due to the lowest birth-rate baseline in the study.
• When momentum fades, so do the numbers. Cities such as Philadelphia (19%) and Arizona (22%) slipped after fan attention cooled late in the season.

Top 10 NFL cities by baby-boom potential (2026)

#1 Houston Texans — Houston, TX
Implied probability of a baby boom: 60%
Houston didn’t just have a season — it had momentum. Texans fans stayed dialed in deep into the year, belief built instead of fading, and Texas already carries the highest birth rate of any state in this study. When optimism lasts through December and the demographic base is already strong, celebration has a way of sticking around.

#2 Carolina Panthers — Charlotte, NC
Implied probability of a baby boom: 57%
Charlotte is what peak fan focus looks like. Panthers attention ranked among the most concentrated in the league, and baby-related searches ran higher here than in most NFL metros. That combination tells a simple story: this is a city that stayed emotionally invested — and already had one eye on what comes next.

#3 Indianapolis Colts — Indianapolis, IN
Implied probability of a baby boom: 57%
Indianapolis doesn’t swing wildly — and that’s the point. Colts fans stayed engaged, the team remained competitive late, and Indiana starts with a higher birth-rate baseline than much of the NFL map. It’s the kind of steady environment where good seasons don’t just end; they settle in.

#4 Denver Broncos — Denver, CO
Implied probability of a baby boom: 53%
In Denver, the season felt personal. Broncos fans showed some of the strongest excitement signals in the league, reacting heavily to highlights and big moments. When a city rides the emotional highs together, the energy doesn’t always shut off with the TV.

#5 Seattle Seahawks — Seattle, WA
Implied probability of a baby boom: 52%
Seattle’s edge is stamina. Seahawks fans stayed engaged from Week 1 through December, the team finished strong, and baby-related search interest ran above average. Sustained belief beats short-lived hype — and Seattle had plenty of it.

#6 New Orleans Saints — New Orleans, LA
Implied probability of a baby boom: 52%
New Orleans starts with an advantage most cities don’t. Louisiana is one of the highest-birth-rate states in the NFL, and Saints fans showed consistently positive sentiment throughout the season. Sometimes the baseline does the heavy lifting.

#7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Tampa, FL
Implied probability of a baby boom: 50%
Tampa lands right on the line where anything can happen. Buccaneers fans stayed engaged, sentiment stayed upbeat, and Florida’s birth-rate baseline keeps the metro firmly in play. Call it a coin flip — but one backed by steady celebration.

#8 Cleveland Browns — Cleveland, OH
Implied probability of a baby boom: 46%
Cleveland’s case is simple: attention. Browns fans were among the most locked-in in the league, tracking every turn of the season. Ohio’s birth rate sits solidly mid-pack, and baby-related interest followed suit. When a city stays glued, outcomes stay live.

#9 Minnesota Vikings — Minneapolis, MN
Implied probability of a baby boom: 44%
Minneapolis doesn’t spike — it accumulates. Vikings fans stayed engaged, sentiment stayed positive, and Minnesota’s birth-rate baseline holds steady. No fireworks, no fade. Just enough across the board to keep the odds respectable.

#10 Atlanta Falcons — Atlanta, GA
Implied probability of a baby boom: 43%
Atlanta sneaks into the top ten on quiet consistency. Falcons fans stayed present, optimism never fully dipped, and Georgia’s birth rate sits slightly above the NFL midpoint. Not flashy — just lined up.

Ranks 11–20: In the mix, but not leading the pack

#11 Dallas Cowboys — Dallas, TX
Big-market attention and steady fan interest keep Dallas competitive, but Texas’ strongest demographic advantage is already doing more work elsewhere. Implied probability of a baby boom: 42.6%

#12 New England Patriots — Boston, MA
Strong engagement and positive sentiment help, yet Massachusetts’ lower birth-rate baseline puts a cap on how far momentum can carry. 42.4%

#13 Pittsburgh Steelers — Pittsburgh, PA
Steelers fans never check out, but this season leaned more steady than euphoric. 41.1%

#14 Buffalo Bills — Buffalo, NY
Plenty of passion and late-season belief, though New York’s lower fertility baseline limits upside. 40.4%

#15 New York Giants — New York City, NY
The energy is there, but in a massive metro it spreads thin, diluting the impact of even strong moments. 39.0%

#16 New York Jets — New York City, NY
Similar story, different colors: attention without sustained momentum keeps expectations modest. 37.4%

#17 San Francisco 49ers — San Jose, CA
Elite engagement meets one of the lowest birth-rate environments in the league — enthusiasm runs high, demographics less so. 36.2%

#18 Detroit Lions — Detroit, MI
Fan belief surged, but Michigan’s mid-range birth rate and uneven sentiment keep the ceiling in check. 35.2%

#19 Jacksonville Jaguars — Jacksonville, FL
Solid engagement and a favorable state baseline help, though overall intensity never quite breaks out. 35.1%

#20 Miami Dolphins — Miami, FL
Miami brings attention and optimism, but relative to other Florida metros, the signals don’t stack as strongly. 34.9%

The lower end of the board: where the odds cool off

At the bottom of the Super Bowl Baby Boom Index are metros where the conditions never fully stack. Washington, D.C. (10%) sits last, weighed down by the lowest fertility baseline in the study. Las Vegas (16%) and Cincinnati (17%) struggle with flatter fan engagement and weaker sentiment, limiting how far celebration carries.

What the numbers are really saying

The takeaway

In betting, momentum shifts lines.
In real life, it shifts behavior.

That same momentum is visible well before kickoff in markets like Super Bowl Odds, where expectations rise and cool as fan belief builds or fades across the season.

The Super Bowl Baby Boom Index isn’t about predicting births — it’s about spotting where the conditions are lining up. Cities with higher birth-rate baselines, sustained fan attention, and late-season optimism show stronger potential for celebration to carry beyond the final whistle.

Not every great season leads to a baby boom — but some seasons leave a mark.
As always, outcomes aren’t guaranteed — but patterns are worth watching.
Play smart.

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Methodology

Sources