Last Updated Nov 21, 2022, 6:12 PM
NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 11 odds reveal a pretty big matchup that wasn't expected to be quite this noteworthy preseason. The surprisingly strong Minnesota Vikings, with the league's second-best record, host the Dallas Cowboys.
Among other notable contests, the Kansas City Chiefs hit the road to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on Week 11 NFL odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: 49ers -7.5; Over/Under 43
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: First off, a reminder that tonight's game is a neutral-site contest, in Mexico City. Second, Kyler Murray (hamstring) is likely out tonight, and oddsmakers responded accordingly.
With two-plus hours until kickoff, the 49ers are laying 9.5 points on PointsBet USA's NFL Week 11 odds board. San Francisco opened -8 a week ago, briefly touched -8.5 and -9 Tuesday, then stabilized at -8. However, on today's Murray news, the line leapt to 49ers -10, before nudging down to -9.5.
That noted, point-spread ticket count is 3/2 and spread money 5/1 on the Cardinals. On the flip side, moneyline tickets and cash are 5/1 Niners.
"A bunch of action on the Niners moneyline, but more than 80% of spread handle on the Cards," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "The best-case scenario is probably just a 49ers cover. We also have decent liability on Christian McCaffrey to score a TD, so it would be good for us if he stays out of the end zone."
The total opened at 43.5, fell to 43 Sunday and remains 43 this evening. The Over is seeing 58% of money, but 71% of handle is on the Under, a big increases from two hours ago, when 52% of cash was on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The 49ers opened as 7.5-point favorites at Caesars Sports, moved to -8 Monday and haven't budged since then. Spread ticket count is dead even, but spread money is nearly 6/1 on San Francisco.
The total is painted to the 43.5 opener, with 55% of tickets on the Over/70% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) trailed the Chargers most of the way in the Week 10 Sunday nighter. But the Niners took a 19-16 lead midway through the fourth quarter en route to a 22-16 victory. That said, San Fran failed to cash as an 8.5-point home chalk.
Arizona (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) is trying to hang around in what's been a mediocre NFC West thus far. In Week 10, the Cardinals were catching 3.5 points on the road and took down the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams 27-17.
"We opened 49ers -7.5 and closed the game when when Sunday Night Football kicked off," Murray said. "We still don’t think much of the Cardinals. And much like the Chiefs game, we know what side we’ll need, given the point spread and the spot in the schedule."
The 49ers-Cardinals line and total didn't move prior to the Chargers-49ers kickoff. The SuperBook will repost 49ers-Cardinals on Monday morning.
Opening line: Chiefs -7; Over/Under 50
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: As kickoff approaches, the Chiefs are 5-point favorites at WynnBet. Kansas City opened -7 Monday morning and steadily dropped, going to -6.5 Tuesday. -6/-5.5 Wednesday and -5 Thursday. The number hasn't moved since.
K.C. is seeing 53% of spread bets, but 64% of spread cash is on the Chargers.
"The Chargers ran down pretty quick early in the week," WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson said, noting sharp play on Los Angeles. "We haven't seen interest in the Chiefs just yet. The Over is popular, as well."
The total is up to 52.5 from a 50 opener, with most of that movement coming Thursday, when the number advanced to 51, 51.5 and 52. Today, the total reached 52.5, with the Over seeing 63% of tickets and hefty 91% of money.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas City opened -7 (-105) in Caesars Sports' NFL Week 11 odds market. The line fell to Chiefs -6.5 Tuesday and -6/-5.5 Wednesday, then returned to -6 for a few hours Thursday.
Late Thursday afternoon, the number fell to K.C. -5.5 and then -5, where it remains today. The betting splits are quite interesting, thanks to large Chargers action at Caesars. Kansas City is getting 61% of early spread tickets, but 90% of early spread dollars are on Los Angeles.
That includes a $125,000 bet on Chargers +7.5 (-125) and $140,000 on Chargers +7.5 (-140).
The total was fairly stable at 50 through Wednesday, then Thursday rose to 52, with stops at every half-point along the way. It's still at 52, with 54% of early tickets/85% of early cash on the Over. A key reason for the money discrepancy: Caesars took a $55,000 bet on Over 51.
UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: PointsBet USA opened Kansas City -6 Sunday night, then spent the first half of the week toggling between Chiefs -6.5 and -7. However, late this afternoon, the Chiefs fell back to -6, then -5.5, where the line sits tonight.
The Chargers are actually landing 55% of early spread bets and 70% of early spread dollars. But even if those numbers hold up on straight bets, the Chiefs will be in countless parlays/moneyline parlays/teasers.
"We're probably just gonna need the Chargers to win straight up," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said.
The total is at 50.5 after spending most of the past three days at the 50 opener. The Over is taking 62% of early tickets, while 58% of early money is on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won three in a row and five of six SU. The Chiefs closed as 9.5-point faves at Jacksonville in Week 10 and narrowly cashed in a 27-17 victory.
Los Angeles (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) is in the prime-time Sunday night slot for the second straight week. The Chargers gave San Francisco a hearty challenge in the Week 10 Sunday nighter. However, L.A. fell short 22-16 while covering as an 8.5-point road 'dog.
"We opened Chiefs -7 and closed the game when Sunday Night Football kicked off," Murray said. "We will need the Chargers here. I’m sure that stadium will look like Arrowhead West, and I’m sure we will be seeing parlays all weekend going to the Chiefs and Chiefs moneyline."
There was no movement on the Chiefs-Chargers line or total prior to Chargers-49ers kicking off. Chiefs-Chargers will go back on The SuperBook's board Monday morning.
Opening line: Cowboys -2.5; Over/Under 47.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About an hour before kickoff, Dallas is -2 (-115) on WynnBet's NFL Week 11 odds board. Last Sunday night, the Cowboys opened -2.5, and by late Monday morning, the number was down to -1.
That lasted a couple of hours before going to Dallas -1.5, where the line stuck all week. Then today, the Pokes went to -2 flat on the way to -2 (-115). It's two-way action on the point spread, with a lean toward Minnesota at 55% of tickets/58% of money.
WynnBet said it needs a Cowboys win and cover, to knock out Vikings spread and moneyline action. Tickets and money on the moneyline are running almost 2/1 on Minnesota.
The total was painted to 48 all week at WynnBet, then nudged to 48.5 early this morning. Tickets and money are just beyond 2/1 on the over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Cowboys opened as 2-point favorites at Caesars Sports, dipped to -1 Monday, and have been at -1.5 since Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota is taking 62% of early spread tickets, while 60% of early spread dollars are on the Cowboys.
Caesars opened the total at 47.5, touched 48 a couple of times Thursday, then today went to 48.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 9/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: This line has nudged slightly toward Minnesota, which remains a home underdog for arguably the best game on this week's docket. The Cowboys opened -2 at PointsBet USA, touched -1.5 a couple times early, then briefly got to -2.5 Monday morning.
The line has since spent time bouncing between Dallas -1.5 and -1, and it's currently -1.5. Minnesota is seeing 55% of tickets and money on the spread thus far, but PointsBet's Patrick Eichner doesn't expect that to hold up, particularly as parlays and moneyline parlays roll in later in the week.
"By the time we get to the weekend, there's little doubt in my mind that we'll need the Vikings. On game day, everyone will have tickets on the Cowboys," Eichner said.
The total opened at 47 and has spent pretty much all week at 47.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money almost 4/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Minnesota (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) prevailed in an absolutely wild game at Buffalo in Week 10. First off, the point spread was all over the place due to uncertainty about the status of Bills QB Josh Allen (elbow). The Vikes opened as high as +9, were as short as +3 and closed +6.5, with Allen starting for Buffalo.
During the game, Minnesota gave up a late-third-quarter touchdown to fall behind 27-10. But the Vikings responded almost instantly with an 81-yard Dalvin Cook TD run. That started a 20-0 run, capped by a crazy last-minute defensive TD on a recovered fumble that put Minnesota up 30-27 with 41 seconds left.
Buffalo tied it on a final-seconds field goal, but Minnesota went on to win 33-30 in overtime. The Vikes are on a seven-game SU win streak.
Meanwhile, Dallas (6-3 SU and ATS) hopes the second stop on its NFC North tour is better than the first. In Week 10, the Cowboys went to Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites and led 28-14 after a late-third-quarter TD. But Dallas didn't score again, losing 31-28 in overtime.
"We opened the Cowboys -2.5 because we noticed during the last week a lot of sharp players betting Dallas on our look-ahead line," Murray said. "Minnesota won a crazy game today in Buffalo and is 8-1, but the market continues to be a little skeptical of the Vikings. We did take some bets on the Vikings +2.5 that moved us to +2, but it says a lot that they are getting points at home, considering the season they’re having."
The total is stable at 47.5 in The SuperBook's NFL Week 11 odds market.
Opening line: Eagles -9.5; Over/Under 44
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: With 2.5 hours to go until kickoff, the Eagles are -6.5 (-115) in WynnBet's NFL Week 11 odds market. Philadelphia opened -9.5 last Sunday night, fell to -7.5 by Monday afternoon, then to -6.5 Tuesday morning.
After spending most of the week at various iterations of -6.5, Philly went to -7 (even) Friday, before dipping to -6.5 (-115) late Saturday night. The Eagles are taking 64% of spread tickets, but 56% of spread cash is on the Colts.
WynnBet said the need on this game is minimal, but the book would love Colts outright to knock out moneyline parlays running to the Eagles.
The total slowly crept from 43.5 to 45.5 by Friday, and it remains 45.5. It's two-way action, with 56% of tickets/53% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports opened Philly -9.5 Sunday night and dipped to -8 Monday afternoon. On Tuesday, in the wake of the Eagles' Monday night loss to Washington, Philadelphia dipped to -7.5, -7 and -6.5.
On Wednesday, the line nudged up to Eagles -7, and they're now at -7 (even). It's solid two-way action so far, with 56% of spread bets on Philly and 55% of spread money on Indy. Spread dollars are close despite the Eagles landing a $110,000 wager at -6.5.
The total opened at 44 and quickly dipped to 43.5, but it's been on a slow rise since. Late Thursday afternoon, it reached 45.5, where it sits now. The Over is seeing 54% of tickets and 72% of money.
UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In the Week 10 Monday nighter, Philadelphia suffered its first loss of the season, tumbling to Washington 32-21 despite closing as 11.5-point favorites. So the Eagles are now 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS.
Shortly after that game ended, PointsBet USA opened Philly -8 against Indy, and by Tuesday morning, the line was down to Eagles -6.5. Late this afternoon, the number crept back up to -7. Philly is drawing 67% of early spread bets/57% of early spread money.
"No surprise, it's still predominantly Eagles action, and by game day, it will be even heavier," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said.
At midweek, PointsBet's total is down to 44 from a 45 opener, with 65% of tickets on the Over, but money running dead even.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: In an otherwise uncompelling game, the Eagles make it so, just by how they've performed all season. Philadelphia (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) has been the NFL's lone remaining unbeaten team for weeks.
But Philly still has Week 10 work to do, hosting the Washington Commanders on Monday night.
Indianapolis (4-5-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) was thought to be in disarray last week. The team fired coach Frank Reich and brought in former Colts center Jeff Saturday as interim coach, although Saturday has zero coaching experience.
But the sharp bettors were on Indy in Week 10, and it paid off. The Colts went to Las Vegas as 4-point 'dogs and exited with a 25-20 outright win.
"We give the Colts a little bump going back to Matt Ryan instead of Sam Ehlinger," Murray said. "We opened the game [Philadelphia] -9.5 and are still there. We may move after the Eagles' tough matchup with the Commanders tomorrow night in Philly. Who do the Eagles play next week? Baylor?"
In case you didn't catch it, Murray was oozing sarcasm with that "tough matchup" remark. The Eagles-Colts line and total are unchanged tonight.
Opening line: Patriots -4.5; Over/Under 39
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET SUNDAY: As kickoff approaches, the Pats are -3 (-120) at WynnBet. New England opened -3.5 last Sunday and has been at various iterations of -3 since Tuesday morning.
The Patriots are seeing 53% of spread tickets/63% of spread dollars. WynnBet said it needs the Jets to cover, but the outcome is not a big decision compared with other games on the slate.
The total opened at 39 and has toggled between 38.5 and 38 since Tuesday. It's currently 38, with ticket count 2/1 on the Over and money just shy of 2/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports' NFL Week 11 odds market pegged New England a 4-point home chalk at Sunday night's outset. By lunchtime Monday, the Pats were down to -3. The price at -3 stretched as far as -125 Thursday afternoon, and shortly thereafter, the line climbed to -3.5.
The Patriots are netting 56% of spread tickets/71% of spread money heading into the weekend. That includes a wager of $130,000 on Patriots -2.5 (-130).
The total opened at a tidy 39.5 and by Wednesday afternoon was down to 38, where it remains this afternoon. Weather could be an issue, with expected winds of 15-25 mph and possibly higher gusts. The Over is taking 58% of tickets, while 66% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Coming off its bye week, New York is certainly well-rested and likely amped after notching its biggest win of the season in Week 9. The Jets (6-3 SU and ATS) were getting 10.5 points at home against Buffalo and pulled off the outright 20-17 victory.
Likewise, New England had a Week 10 bye. The Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) thumped Indianapolis 26-3 as 4.5-point road favorites in Week 9. New England is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games.
"We opened Patriots -4.5 and were bet down to -4," Murray said. "The sharps were on New England in their first matchup, and the Patriots were as high as -3 on the road in that game, which they won."
Indeed, in Week 8, the Pats beat the host Jets 22-17. While the Week 11 spread is down a half-point, the total is unchanged tonight at 39.
Opening line: Packers -1.5; Over/Under 41
Time: 8:15 P.M. ET Thursday (Prime Video)
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Seventy-five minutes before kickoff, the Packers are laying 3 points at WynnBet. Green Bay opened -2 Sunday night, went to -2.5 at lunchtime Monday, then advanced to -3 a couple of hours later.
Since then, the Pack spent time at -3 (-115) and -3 (-120), but never got to -3.5. Tennessee is actually taking 56% of spread tickets, but 75% of spread money is on Green Bay.
"We win to the Titans at +3, so we will be rooting for that," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said. "We got some substantial bets on the Packers at -3, so if the Titans were to keep it close, that would be ideal. We currently win to the Over, as well."
The total opened at 41.5, inched to 42 Monday morning, returned to 41.5 Monday afternoon and dipped to 41 Tuesday afternoon. it's still at 41 tonight, with 54% of tickets/59% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Twenty-four hours before kickoff, Green Bay is out to a 3.5-point favorite on PointsBet USA's NFL Week 11 odds board. The Packers opened -2.5 (-115) Sunday night, went to -3 Monday afternoon and have since toggled between -3 and -3.5.
Green Bay is netting 56% of early spread tickets and 60% of early spread money. PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said the moneyline is seeing two-way play, as well. But by kickoff Thursday night, he's anticipating a couple of needs for the book.
"I think we're going to need the Titans, and for Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones not to find the end zone," Eichner said, alluding to the running backs for Tennessee and Green Bay, respectively. "As you would imagine, there is an awful lot on Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown, which is -145."
PointsBet opened the total at 41, peaked at 42.5 Monday afternoon, then backed up to 41 a couple of times. The total is currently 41, with 70% of tickets and 83% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The losing streak is over in Green Bay. After dumping five in row on the field and five of six ATS, the Packers got back on track with a big comeback against Dallas.
Trailing 28-14, Green Bay (4-6 SU and ATS) put up two fourth-quarter TDs to force overtime, then went on to win 31-28 as a 3.5-point home pup.
Perhaps surprisingly, Tennessee has ripped off wins in six of its last seven games while covering in all seven contests. The only setback was a 20-17 loss catching 14 points at Kansas City in Week 9.
In Week 10, the Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) fended off Denver 17-10 laying 2.5 points at home.
"We moved up to Packers -2.5 off some small bets as the Packers came back to beat Dallas," Murray said. "Green Bay can keep its season alive with a win here, and the wiseguys seem to be against the Titans just about every week."
While the spread is up a point, the total is stable at 41 tonight on The SuperBook's NFL Week 11 odds board.