Last Updated Jan 29, 2023, 7:53 PM
NFC Championship Game Odds and Action Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFC Championship Game odds are on the board and already getting attention for a West Coast-East Coast battle. The top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles play host to the red-hot and second-seeded San Francisco 49ers.
Much like with AFC Championship Game odds, the home team Philly opened a short favorite. But surging San Fran will certainly have its supporters.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFC Championship odds and action. Check back all week for updates.
Opening line: Eagles -1.5; Over/Under 45
Time: Noon ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: PointsBet USA opened Philadelphia at -2, then spent pretty much all week at -2.5 at various juice, peaking late Saturday night at -2.5 (-120). The Eagles are still -2.5 (-120) at PointsBet, though a few sportsbooks have moved out to -3.
Point-spread tickets are running 3/1 and spread money almost 5/1 on the favorite Eagles. Philly is also getting hit on the moneyline, with ticket count almost 2/1 and money 5/1 on the Eagles.
"Heavy action on the Eagles in both the spread and moneyline markets," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "The book will be rooting for the 49ers."
The total opened at 45.5, climbed to 46 Tuesday and 46.5 Wednesday. By Saturday night, the total dipped to 45.5, where it remains this afternoon. It's much more two-way action in this market than in the spread/moneyline markets, with 57% of tickets/56% of cash on the Under.
Korn also noted PointsBet has "decent liability" on 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and Eagles wideout A.J. Brown on the prop bets of scoring the game's first touchdown and on anytime touchdown. The liability is more so on anytime TD.
"We'll be rooting for them not to score," Korn said.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sports opened Philly as a 1-point home chalk, and the line sprinted to -2.5 by late Sunday night. Since then, the line has been pinned to -2.5, though at various juice (-110/-115/-120), and it's currently Eagles -2.5 (-120).
Philadelphia is drawing 74% of spread tickets/62% of spread money. On the moneyline, the 49ers are taking 56% of tickets, while 66% of money is on the Eagles. Caesars has seen four six-figure spread wagers on the Niners, but with three of those, the customer bought a full point up to +3.5. That includes a $290,000 play at 49ers +3.5 (-140). There are three six-figure bets on Eagles -2.5, the largest a $220,000 play.
"We haven't gotten to the main line being 3 yet, but it's close. You can buy the 3 at a reasonable price, as it stands now," Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. "We saw a few days ago that we had some sharp players betting through the 3 and buying up to 3.5. And if they're doing that, we take notice. I also think there are a lot of sharp bettors waiting for a flat 3, so they don't have to lay the extra juice.
"The Eagles money is still reigning supreme overall, but we'll see as we enter the final couple days until kick if that changes. I would be surprised if this closes at 3, even though the line is right there."
The total opened at 45.5, bumped up to 46 Tuesday and briefly got to 46.5 Wednesday, before returning to 46. It remains at 46 this afternoon. It's two-way play, with the Under netting 57% of tickets and 52% of money. Caesars took a $110,000 bet on Under 46.5.
"I think the numbers are right where they should be," Pullen said, alluding to both the NFC and AFC totals (47.5). "With the Eagles and Niners, you have two solid defenses, so I'm not surprised about the two-way action there."
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: After opening Philly -2, PointsBet USA has had this number pretty much painted to -2.5 throughout the week, albeit and various juice (even, -105, -110, -115). The Eagles had a short stint at -3 Monday.
Tonight, Philadelphia is -2.5 (-115) on the NFC Championship odds board, while attracting a healthy 82% of early spread bets/92% of early spread money. Likewise, bettors are on Eagles moneyline, at 62% of bets/83% of cash.
"Heavy liability on the Eagles, so we'll be rooting for the Niners in the NFC Championship Game, as of now," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said.
The total opened at 45.5, climbed to 46 Tuesday and 46.5 Wednesday. It's still at 46.5 on two-way play: 52% of tickets on the Under/59% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Philly landed on TwinSpires' NFC Championship odds board as a 2-point favorite and moved to -2.5 in short order this week.
"The Eagles are taking the bulk of the money so far," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said, noting 62% of spread bets/66% of spread money is on Philadelphia. "And Eagles moneyline is 3/1 tickets and 5/1 money."
The total opened at 45.5 and made a stop at 46 on the way to 46.5. Early ticket count is almost even, and 63% of early money is on the Over at TwinSpires.
"Sharp play on the Over. We'll need the Under here," Lucas said.
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco is unquestionably the hottest team remaining in what's now a four-team tournament. The 49ers (15-4 SU, 13-6 ATS) are on a 12-game SU win streak and are 10-2 ATS in that stretch.
Earlier tonight in an NFC Divisional Round game against Dallas, the Niners closed as 3.5-point home favorites and won a defensive brawl 19-12.
Philadelphia (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) didn't have nearly as much trouble in its NFC Divisional Round matchup against the New York Giants. The Eagles sprinted to a 28-0 halftime lead, then coasted to a 38-7 victory laying 8 points at home Saturday.
Early bettors had a strong opinion on NFC Championship Game odds at The SuperBook.
"Action has been all Philly from the opener, moving us up a full point to Eagles -2.5," said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor for The SuperBook. "There will be some buyback on San Francisco during the week, but I anticipate needing the Niners come kickoff. Also, some smaller bets on Over 45, but nothing noteworthy to move us off that number yet."
It's the second straight NFC Championship Game appearance for the 49ers, and the third in four seasons. San Fran reached the 2019-20 Super Bowl, where it lost to Kansas City 31-20.