Patriots vs Steelers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 14

Here's everything you need to know about the Patriots vs. Steelers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 14.

Week 14 of the NFL regular season kicks things off with Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. Coverage begins from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

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Patriots vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 14

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline
Steelers vs
Patriots
-5.5 (-115)
+5.5 (-105)
o30.5 (-110)
u30.5 (-110)
-250
+205

We’re less than four years removed from Tom Brady’s departure of New England, and the Patriots have quickly become one of the worst teams in football – and despite already owning the second-worst record in the entire league at 2-10, the ship is sinking faster than ever before entering this week, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Bill Belichick’s defense ranks just 15th in the league in scoring, but they have played excellent the last few weeks, highlighted by the Patriots surrendering 10 points or less in three straight matchups against the Colts, Giants, and Chargers. However, their level of defensive success means nothing if they can’t generate points on the other side of the script – and to their demise, the Patriots offense has posted historically bad numbers all season, and it’s only gotten worse as of late.

The Patriots enter Thursday following losses in five straight games, which can mainly be attributed to the fact that they scored 17 points or less in all five of those contests – and to take that a step further, the Patriots have scored 17 points or less in 10 of 12 games so far this season – currently ranked dead last in the league in scoring at a whopping average of 12.3 points per game.

However, on the other side of that same coin, the Steelers offense has also been terrible this season, currently ranked 28th in the league in scoring – and after a momentary spark following the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh seemingly reverted to its baseline with an ugly performance against Arizona last week as QB Kenny Pickett exited with an ankle injury in a 24-10 home loss – as they’ve now scored 16 points or less in four of their last six games, and 20 points or less in five of their last six.

In the 24 games played (combined) by the Steelers and Patriots this season, the aforementioned teams have scored 17 points or less in 17 of those matchups – and on the flip side, they’ve also managed to hold the opposing team to 21 points or less on 14 occasions, despite the treacherous offensive play by both sides throughout the year.

The total for this contest sits at OU 30.5 as of Wednesday afternoon, which basically translates to: the oddsmakers have no clue where the points are going to come from in this game – and quite frankly, I find myself pondering a similar question. This is going to be a rock fight. Give me the under.

Score Prediction: Steelers 16, Patriots 7
Best Bet: Under 30.5 (-115)

NE @ PIT Odds

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Patriots vs Steelers Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, December 7, 2023
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC North
Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Time-TV: Amazon Prime Video, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 14 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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New England Patriots Betting Analysis

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the SuperBook opened the total for this contest at OU 32.5, and since then, that number has fallen all the way to 30.5 or 30 at most shops as of Wednesday afternoon. SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson noted, “We felt like we couldn't set this total low enough…depressing home losses for both teams today. Who knows who's playing QB for either team? Who cares?”

The answer to that question is Mitch Trubisky and Bailey Zappe, which certainly bodes well for the under.

nfl-steelers-patriots-thursday-night-football-week-14
The total has gone UNDER in nine of Pittsburgh's last 10 games. (Getty)

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

The Steelers offense has been pretty terrible this season. Plain and simple: offensive coordinators typically don’t get fired when the offense is playing well. That said, Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles have been nowhere near as detrimental as New England’s this season, hence why the Steelers remain alive in the AFC playoff hunt with a record of 7-5 and the Patriots are dead in the water at 2-10.

Don’t get me wrong, the Steelers offense has been tough to watch, as they enter the week ranked 28th in scoring and 25th in per play yardage. But the spread for this matchup tells a lot about the current state of the Patriots, as they draw a matchup against the 28th ranked offense in the league down to its backup QB, and NE is still six-point underdogs despite its defense allowing 10 points or less in three straight games.

Patriots vs Steelers Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of New England's last 11 games.
  • The Steelers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of Pittsburgh's last 10 games.
  • The Steelers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The Patriots are 0-5 SU in their last five games.