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Championship Notes

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
AFC Championship - History

Jacksonville at New England (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Jacksonville Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U
New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas Super Book sent out New England as an eight-point home favorite over Jacksonville and the number quickly jumped to -9. [...], a major global betting outfit, opened the Patriots -8 and that number has held steady but they adjusted to -8 (-115) within 30 minutes of posting. As of Sunday night, consensus is New England -9 and [...] is dangling Patriots -10 ½ (+115) for the daring bettors.

The SuperBook sent out a total of 45 ½ and that was pushed up quickly to 46 ½. [...] opened 46 ½ and its already up to 47. As of 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, you can get as low as 46 at a handful of outfits and as high as 27 at the Wynn Las Vegas.

Head-to-Head: Since Jacksonville joined the NFL in the 1995 season as an expansion team, these two teams have met 11 times. New England has gone 10-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in those contests.

The most recent matchup took place in the 2015 regular season and New England blasted Jacksonville 51-17 as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Including this win, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has gone 5-0 as a starter in his career against Jacksonville while the team has averaged 32 points per game.

Betcha Didn’t Know: New England has won 19 straight games (13-6 ATS) against opponents from the AFC South, which includes last Saturday’s Divisional Playoff 35-14 win over Tennessee. The ‘over’ has gone 14-5. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has dropped its last seven road encounters against opponents from the AFC East.

Playoff Notes: Including last Saturday’s win over Tennessee, the Patriots improved to 26-9 in the playoffs under head coach Bill Belichick. At Foxboro, the team has gone 18-3 SU and 12-8-1 ATS. The most recent home loss for New England came in the 2012-13 AFC Championship when Baltimore surprised the Patriots 28-13 as eight-point road underdogs. Since that setback New England has gone 2-2 in the AFC Championship game and they own a 9-4 overall record in the conference title game.

Including the two wins this season, Jacksonville owns a 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS all-time record in the playoffs. The Jaguars have played in the AFC title game twice and they came up short in both games.

These teams have met four times in the postseason, the last encounter taking place in the 2007-08 playoffs when the Patriots captured a 31-20 win at home but they failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites. Overall, New England is 3-1 versus Jacksonville in the postseason and the home team has won all four games while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark.

Total Notes: The Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season but the ‘over’ has posted a 6-3 mark in games played at Foxboro. Jacksonville has seen its totals produced a stalemate (9-9) through 18 games, which includes a 5-4 ‘under’ mark on the road. The Jaguars have watched the ‘over’ go 8-5 all-time in their 13 playoff games.

The highest total Jacksonville has seen in a game this season was 43, which occurred in Week 16 when it visited San Francisco. The ‘over’ easily hit as the 49ers and former New England QB Jimmy Garoppolo diced up the Jaguars 44-33 at home.

NFC Championship – History

Minnesota at Philadelphia (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Minnesota Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Philadelphia Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U

Line Movements: The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook opened Minnesota as a three-point favorite (-120) but they removed the added juice and went to 3 ½ (EVEN) within the first hour. [...] started with Vikings -3.5 and have dropped to -3 (-120).

The SuperBook made a mistake with the total, sending out 40 and they adjusted quickly. Most shops are holding between 38 and 38 ½ points while [...] is as low as 37 ½ (-115) as of Sunday night.

Head-to-Head: Philadelphia defeated Minnesota 21-10 in the 2016 regular season as a three-point home underdog. Prior to that matchup, the Vikings had won and covered the previous two meetings. Since 1992, the teams have met 10 times and Philadelphia is 7-3 overall while the total holds a 5-5 mark.

The Vikings defeated the Redskins 38-30 in Week 10, which snapped a three-game losing skid to opponents from the NFC East. Philadelphia has gone 4-1 at home in its last five games against NFC North foes, which includes the recent meeting between the pair in 2016.

Betcha Didn’t Know: Since the 1997-98 postseason, the NFC Championship has seen the road team favored four times and the visitor has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in that role. The last team to win as a road favorite was San Francisco (-3.5) in the 2012-13 playoff when it rallied past Atlanta 28-24 in the Georgia Dome.

Playoff Notes: Minnesota’s wild 29-24 win over New Orleans in the Divisional Round was its first playoff victory since 2010. The Vikings haven’t captured a win on the road in the postseason since 2005, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three.

The Divisional round win on Saturday over Atlanta also snapped a playoff drought for Philadelphia. The Eagles were 0-4 in their previous four playoff games and two of those losses came at home.

The Vikings and Eagles have met twice in the playoffs and Philadelphia won and covered both of those games, 27-14 at home in 2005 and 26-14 at the Metrodome in 2009. The ‘under’ cashed in both games.

Total Notes: Minnesota saw its total results (4-4) break even on the road in the regular season while Philadelphia watched the ‘under’ cash in six of nine home games. Only three of nine opponents were able to score 20-plus points on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Minnesota led the league in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) but the home numbers (12.5 PPG) were much better than the road production (19 PPG). The Eagles have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three playoff games. Two of the last three in the postseason for Minnesota have gone to the low side.

The Vikings had three totals in the regular season close in the thirties and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. This total will be the lowest number that Philadelphia has seen all season, as it enters this game on a 3-0 ‘under’ run.


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