Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:02 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
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Can I interest you in some Bills, Cardinals, Raiders or Lions action this week? Those teams are certainly hard sells after two weeks of skunky play where they've collectively gone 0-8 straight up and 2-6 against the spread.
It's still all in the number.
What will it take to make you bet one of these teams? How high? Just like we've seen the last two seasons with the Browns, the number will eventually overflow to where it's attractive.
Let's take a look at some of the NFL Week 3 betting action happening in Nevada:
Colts at Eagles -6.5, 47.5
"This game hasn't moved off -6.5 all week and isn't attracting too much attention despite quarterback Carson Wentz making his debut," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. William Hill sports books have written 78 percent of their tickets on the Eagles and also taken in 70 percent of the cash.
Bengals at Panthers -3, 43.5
"This is one of those games were going to probably bounce around with because of the flat-prices," said Andrews, referring to the fact the South Point is the only book that doesn't move a money-price to avoid moving off a key number. "They're (sharps) taking +3 with the Bengals pretty good here and I know once I move I'll get Panthers action at -2.5." Most other books around town have thePanthers -3 EVEN while Boyd Gaming books are using Panthers -2.5 -120.
Titans at Jaguars (OFF)
This game is off the board all across the state due to unknown status of Titans QB Marcus Mariota (elbow), but Andrews gave his in and out number. "If he's playing, I'd start the Jags at -7 and if he doesn't I would go with nineish or -10," he said.
Saints at Falcons -3, 53.5
"This is the same kind of thing like we have with the Panthers game," said Andrews. "The Saints +3-flat has one limit wager on it and I think will be attractive for some guys, but it's a good two-way bet game by the public so far." Station Casinos and the Westgate Las Superbook are both at -3 EVEN.
Broncos at Ravens -5, 44.5
"We took a little bit of money on the Ravens at -4.5, and it doesn't take much to move to -5," said Andrews. William Hill bet shops have 62 percent of its cash on this game taking the Broncos.
Giants at Texans -6, 42
"We've been -6 all week and we're not seeing many takers on the Giants," said Andrews.
Raiders at Dolphins -3.5, 44
"We took multiple limit wagers on the Dolphins at -3 flat and when we moved to -3.5, we just had a few small plays taking with the Raiders, " Andrews said. This is why the South Point is a great book to follow because the wise guys hanging aroundwill jump at anything attractive and there is no other +3.5s in town and no one backed the Brinks truck up for Oakland.
Packers -2.5, 45.5 at Redskins
The South Point has the only -2.5 flat in town after moving from -3 on Tuesday. "We'll go back to -3 as soon as more information comes in on Aaron Rodgers' knee," said Andrews. Rodgers is listed as probable. All the other books in town are -3 EVEN with the exception of Caesars Palace who are at -2.5 -120.
Bills at Vikings -16.5, 41
"I don't even think we have $100 bet on the Bills," Andrews joked -- maybe it was no joke. Anyway, he chuckled. "But the big number has kept the public from all piling on to the popular Vikings." Boyd Gaming and the Stratosphere have the Vikings at -17.
49ers at Chiefs -6.5, 55.5
We opened this at -6 and got one-way KC action, but the straight bets have been even since going to -6.5," said Andrews. "I think this will be a good game and I believe the wise guys will take +7 if it gets there. This is our second largest parlay game of the week with risk mounting on the Chiefs." William Hill's books have seen 88 percent of its tickets written on the Chiefs as well as 87 percent of the cash taken in. This is a pivotal early game for the books that will have a say in how the books fare Sunday. It's a root game that will represent huge carryover risk into the afternoon games on Sunday.
Chargers at Rams -7, 48
"We went quick off -6.5 without even a full wager. It just feels like -7 it the right number," said Andrews. "This is our biggest parlay game of the week with heavy one-sided play on the Rams. If the Chiefs and Rams both cover, it's going to be the most popular two-teamer of the day and that risk will carry over into the night game." Boyd Gaming saw enough Rams money at -7 and moved to -7 -120 as a measure to slow the public wave.
Bears -5, 38.5 at Cardinals
"The wise-guys are all over the Cardinals this week," said Andrews. "They took +6.5, +6, and +5.5. " However, he says public hates the Cardinals and they're betting the Bears in parlays.
Cowboys at Seahawks -1, 41.5
"We've got a little play on the Seahawks, nothing big, mostly public play," said Andrews who opened the desperate Seahawks -2.5 before their Monday night loss at Chicago. It's been -1 ever since.
Patriots -7, 54 at Lions
"This is our third biggest parlay game and our biggest teaser game," said Andrews who moved from -6.5 up to -7 on Thursday morning. "This game could be on its way to -9 now."
How about that popular public parlay with the Rams, Chiefs and Patriots paying out at 6/1 odds? That's going to be a whopper for every sports book to swallow if it cashes. And then there will be heavy lingering risk heading into the Monday night game where the Buccaneers (+1) are already popular plays at home against the Steelers.
Have a great football weekend and here's to hoping all your tickets cash.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.