Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:02 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
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"The game that is generating the most interest this week is the Dolphins-Patriots game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of his NFL Week 4 action.
It's the game that carries the most intrigue considering the 3-0 Dolphins could possibly put the 1-2 Patriots three games down in the AFC East. The Patriots opened the season as 1-to-8 favorites to win the division while the Dolphins were 10-to-1. A lot has changed in just three weeks of play.
"The sharps grabbed +7 -110 and +7 -115 with the Dolphins early the week forcing us to -6.5," Simbal said. "However, public play has still been all over the Patriots."
The Patriots have lost their last two games by double digits. The last time they lost three straight was in 2002 when they lost four straight. They've won and covered their last six at home against the Dolphins, part of the home team trend that is on an 11-1 ATS run.
"This Dolphins team is for real," said Simbal. "I think Ryan Tannehill has won something like 10 of his last 11 starts."
Action has been a little different at William Hill sports books which have seen 63 percent of their action on the Dolphins as well as 59 percent of the tickets written. They currently have the Patriots -7 EVEN just like Station Casinos, Wynn and MGM Resorts. The Westgate Superbook and South Point are at -6.5 like CG Technology books.
It pays to shop around for the best number hovering around key numbers of 3 or 7 as most bettors found out last night in the Rams' 38-31 win as 7-point favorites after originally opening -6.5. Simbal says they had a couple large wagers on the Rams that refunded and they "somehow won on the total."
"The biggest divide between Pro's and Joe's we have this week is with Philly at Tennessee," said Simbal. "Sharp money took the +4 and +3.5-flat with us pushing us to Eagles -3.5 -115. We have 21x more tickets written on the Eagles, but 3x more money on the Titans."
Up north in Reno, Marc Nelson says the Eagles are the second most public bet at his Atlantis sports book and Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says the Eagles are the No. 1 public bet between his 18 books.
Is it comedian Bill Engvall that has the signature "Here's your sign" line? Well, there it is for everyone with the Titans as a home dog. That many bettors on the same side usually works out well for the house.
Marcus Mariota (elbow) is listed as probable. Tennessee has won and covered the last two weeks as underdogs while the Eagles have failed to cover their last two.
Nelson said his top public play at the Atlantis is the Packers who are now -9.5 at home against the Bills after opening -10.5 at some places. The Bills come off one of the NFL's biggest upsets winning as 17-point underdogs at Minnesota last week.
"We had one (sharp) guy take the +10, so we moved to -9.5, but that's about it on that side," said Simbal of the Bills action.
"We've had some large action come in on the Bengals taking +5.5, +5 and +4.5," said Simbal of the Bengals game at Atlanta. "They also took the money-line (+175 now) with them and the Over which has been pushed from 48 up to 53."
William Hill books have 88 percent of their money taken in on the Bengals and also 63 percent of the tickets written. All three of the Bengals games have gone Over the total and the Falcons have shown the past two weeks to have a shaky defense, losing 43-37 at home to the Saints last week.
Rookie QB Josh Rosen makes his first career start for the 0-3 Cardinals at home against the Seahawks and wise guys have made up their minds on who they like.
"Sharps laid the -3 (-110) with Seattle," said Simbal, who moved to -3 -120 and -3 -125 on Monday. "We don't want to get off the 3."
The South Point uses exclusively flat numbers and has Seattle at -3.5 with no one running to the bet windows take the home team +3.5 which means it could easily run to -4.
The Cardinals have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their five at home against the Seahawks, but have won the past three in Seattle.
Simbal said his books have also taken some sharp action on the Lions +3 at Dallas while the parlay action has been mostly on the Cowboys.
Here's a look at the top-3 Sharp and public plays at a couple books in northern and southern Nevada:
Top-3 Sharp plays: Texans, Bengals, Browns
Top-3 Public plays: Packers, Eagles. Chargers
Top-3 Sharp plays: Broncos, Texans, Ravens
Top-3 Public plays: Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.