MNF – Chiefs at Broncos
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
LAST WEEK
The Chiefs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have put together the most impressive start through three weeks of the season by beating the Chargers, Steelers, and 49ers. Kansas City’s offense continued to click in last Sunday’s 38-27 victory over San Francisco as the Chiefs topped the 38-point for the third time this season. Patrick Mahomes tossed three touchdown passes in the second quarter alone for Kansas City, while moving his season total to 13 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.
Mahomes is leading this Kansas City squad to plenty of touchdowns (16), while the Chiefs have kicked only two field goals in their three wins. Last year’s rookie sensation Kareem Hunt has struggled to rack up yards through three games (173), but the running back found the end zone twice against San Francisco. Kansas City covered each of the first two weeks in the underdog role, while cashing as a 5 ½-point favorite against San Francisco for the club’s second consecutive season with a 3-0 start.
The Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season at Baltimore after picking up consecutive home wins over Seattle and Oakland. Denver scored 14 quick points in the first quarter but was held scoreless in the final three quarters in a 27-14 setback in rainy Baltimore as a 5 ½-point underdog.
Quarterback Case Keenum put together an unimpressive effort in his third start with the Broncos by throwing for 192 yards, while getting intercepted once. Emmanuel Sanders rushed for a 35-yard touchdown to give the Broncos a 14-7 advantage, but couldn’t post another score for the final 53 minutes. The loss was the eighth in nine tries on the road since Vance Joseph took over as head coach in 2017.
MILE HIGH TIMES
If the Broncos are playing at home in the first four weeks of the season, you can pretty much mark down a “W.” Dating back to 2013, Denver has won 15 consecutive games at home in games during the first four weeks, including the early victories this season against Seattle and Oakland. The Broncos have covered 11 times in this stretch as several of the non-covers came as heavy favorites when Peyton Manning was the man under center. This is the third time the Broncos are listed as an underdog in this situation, winning outright against the Panthers in 2016 and over the Cowboys in 2017.
REID IT AND WEAP Under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs have been a fantastic team to back on the road against AFC West foes. Since 2015, Kansas City owns a 9-1 record in this situation, including an opening week victory over Los Angeles. The only loss in this stretch came at Oakland last season on the final play of a 31-30 setback, but the Chiefs have compiled a 5-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
SERIES HISTORY
The Broncos won five consecutive meetings with the Chiefs from 2013 through 2015, capped off by the famous Thursday night comeback at Arrowhead Stadium in which Denver scored two late touchdowns to stun Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have turned the tide in the series by capturing five straight matchups, including sweeps the last two seasons.
The Chiefs cruised past the Broncos in a Monday night affair last October at Arrowhead, 29-19 to cash as seven-point favorites. Denver turned the ball over five times, while Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker booted five field goals in the victory. Kansas City held off Denver in Week 17 at Mile High, 27-24 in Mahomes’ first NFL start, playing in place of the resting Alex Smith. Although Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass, the Chiefs posted 379 yards of offense, while grabbing their third straight victory in Denver.
TOTAL TALK
Heading into Week 3, only four teams cashed the OVER in each of the first three games. The Chiefs were among that group, while the Broncos have finished UNDER the total in back-to-back contests since their high-scoring affair against the Seahawks. Dating back to 2015, the OVER has hit in five of six meetings between Kansas City and Denver, but none of those games saw a total above 42.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Chiefs opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to four at several books and even down to 3 ½ at global outfit [...]. The total sits at a whopping 54 ½, the highest total for Denver since finishing UNDER 50 at New Orleans in 2016.
GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards - Patrick Mahomes
OVER 295 ½ (-110)
UNDER 295 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (+115)
UNDER 2 ½ (-135)
Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 74 ½ (-110)
UNDER 74 ½ (-110)
Total Completions – Case Keenum
OVER 23 (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Case Keenum
OVER 1 ½ (-110)
UNDER 1 ½ (-110)
Will Royce Freeman score a touchdown?
YES (EVEN)
NO (-120)
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in on this AFC West matchup and says that the ground game will be critical for a win, “Despite playing with a lead nearly the entire season, the Chiefs have only 310 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry as Denver can expect an edge on the ground in this matchup. The Broncos are fifth in the NFL with 5.2 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 153 rushing yards per game. The Broncos also have allowed just 3.3 yards per rush on the season for the second best run defense in the NFL with Kansas City 30th in yards per rush allowed at 5.2.”
From the turnover perspective, Nelson points out that the Chiefs in spite of their undefeated mark are not forcing many takeaways, “The Chiefs had one of the best turnover margins in the NFL last season at +15, but are just +1 this season while the Broncos have managed to start 2-1 despite five turnovers this season with a -2 margin after being second worst in the NFL last season at -17. The Broncos have a suspect resume with -9 scoring differential on the season as they won a pair of very close games at home to start the season including a great comeback vs. Oakland.”
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
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