Total Talk - Week 6

Week 5 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-7 in Week 5 and the high side is 42-36 (54%) on the season. A couple of those ‘over’ tickets were fortunate to come through last weekend. Bettors who played the ‘under’ in the Falcons-Steelers or Cardinals-49ers matchups, please accept our apologies.

Along with the overall totals market, you can see above that the non-conference games and divisional matchups have been practically even this season as well. However, there has been a solid ‘over’ spike for games played indoors and though the sample size isn’t larger, the Coast-to-Coast angle is trending up.

For that trend, I like to include teams heading East or West by two different time zones. Last week, Denver ventured to New York to play the Jets, it’s second trip to the East Coast this season and second ‘over’ ticket. This week, the L.A. Chargers head to Cleveland and that contest would fit the criteria.

Keep an Eye On

-- Totals in the fifties went 5-1 to the ‘over’ last week. This Sunday, there are four games sitting with totals listed in this range or higher. On the season, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in games that have closed above 50.

-- Teams off the bye saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 last week as the Panthers (31) and Redskins (43) gave up a combined 76 points. This week, Chicago and Tampa Bay will be playing with rest at Miami and Atlanta respectively.

-- The NFL International Series returns in Week 6 as the Seahawks and Raiders will play from Wembley Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET – a night game instead of the usual afternoon contest. There haven't been many total trends in these games with the 'over' holding an 11-10 edge in the first 21 games played from the UK and that includes a 2-2 stalemate last season. Seattle has never played in London but the Raiders made the overseas trip in 2014 and they were blasted 38-14 by the Dolphins.

-- The popular “Thursday Night Total” system improved to 4-0 last week as the Rams and Seahawks played to a shootout. The angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. This week, the Chiefs-Patriots matchup fits for Week 6 since New England played at home last Thursday versus Indianapolis.

-- Readers of Total Talk may recall the "Road Total System" that I've wrote about in the past. It's in play for Week 6 and the angle calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. This week, the Ravens will head to the Titans for their third straight on the road. Last season, this situation watched the 'over' go 5-3 and the record stands at 44-23 (66%) in the last 12 seasons.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 as of Saturday morning per [...].

Chicago at Miami: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 54 ½ to 50
Kansas City at New England: 58 to 60

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets: Over 96%
San Francisco at Green Bay: Over 94%
Seattle at Oakland: Over 84%
Kansas City at New England: Over 82%
L.A. Chargers at Cleveland: Over 77%

A user emailed me recently and asked about the above percentages and what should bettors do – fade or follow? While some sites, handicappers, bettors will tell you to blindly go against the public lean, which isn’t a terrible idea, my suggestion would be to use it as a resource in your handicapping toolbox. In the long run, fading the public will make you money but that consistent routine requires time, money, etc…If it was that easy, everybody would be doing it, right? Keep in mind that the public does win and the most popular leans noted in Week 5 went 4-1 (80%).

Divisional Matchups

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: These teams played to a pair of ‘over’ winners last season but bettors had to put in 60 minutes as both outcomes ended with 43 points (29-14, 23-20). The totals on those games (40, 42.5) were much lower than this week’s number (51 ½). Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have both watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season and it’s easy to see why when you look at the offense and defensive scoring numbers for both the Steelers (28.6 PPG, 26.6 PPG) and Bengals (30.6 PPG, 26 PPG).

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four matchups in this series but the pair haven’t seen this high of a total (57) since a number of 51 of posted in 2012. Similar to the AFC North matchup above, the Buccaneers (4-0) and Falcons (4-1) have been great ‘over’ wagers this season. And those records have been helped by the lack of defense, with Tampa Bay (34.8 PPG) and Atlanta (32.6 PPG) ranked 32^nd and 31^st in scoring. The Bucs will be playing with rest and they’ve watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five games off the bye.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ holds a 9-8 mark through 17 primetime games this season and that includes Thursday’s ‘over’ winner between the Eagles and Giants. For those keeping track, the TNF matchup is 4-2 to the high side this season.

SNF – Kansas City at New England: As of Saturday morning, this total is sitting at 60. The Chiefs will bring the 2^nd best scoring offense (35 PPG) into this matchup against a New England team that has posted 38 points on the board each of the last two weeks. While the Chiefs total offense (No. 5, 413 YPG) has shown the ability to move the ball, the same can’t be said for New England (No. 23, 357 YPG). However, the Pats will be facing the worst ranked total defense in the Chiefs (461 YPG). Kansas City is known to score quickly but a lot of pundits believe New England will try to keep the offense off the field and grind it out on the ground. Since Andy Reid arrived in KC, the Chiefs have watched the ‘over’ cash in all three encounters against the Patriots and that includes last year’s 42-27 win at Foxboro. Make a note that the SNF matchup has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight weeks and we haven’t seen any team go over 30 points this season on the NBC telecast

MNF – San Francisco at Green Bay: This is another matchup that features both teams with 4-1 ‘over’ records. The 49ers defense (29.2 PPG) doesn’t appear to be great from a scoring perspective but they are ranked 10^th (348.4 YPG) in total defense. Same thing goes for the Packers defense, who are ranked fourth overall (313 YPG) in yards but they’ve surrendered 22.8 PPG. In Week 3, Green Bay allowed 31 at Washington and rebounded with a 22-0 shutout win at home over Buffalo. Last Sunday, the Lions put up 31 on the Packers at Ford Field and something tells me we could see GB defense step up at Lambeau Field under the lights.

Fearless Predictions

The Cardinals-49ers ‘under’ last week cost us a profit last week and kept us in that ‘splitsville’ neighborhood ($10) once again. We haven’t had a winning week since the opener but we’re still ahead ($155) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck! 

Best Over: Kansas City-New England 60
Best Under: Under L.A. Rams-Denver 52
Best Team Total: Under Chicago Bears 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 L.A. Chargers-Cleveland
Under 50 ½ Arizona-Minnesota
Under 48 Jacksonville-Dallas

Chris David can be reached at [email protected]