Vegas Money Moves – Week 7Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL winners from Micah Roberts on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!
There's no mystery with Miami's quarterback situation in NFL Week 7 action against the Lions. Ryan Tannehill's shoulder isn't ready to go so it's Brock Osweiler again and bettors at one chain of Las Vegas sports books are betting he doesn't fare as well as last week when he surprised the Bears top-ranked defense in a 31-28 win as 7.5-point home underdogs.
"We've had the most sharp play on the Lions this week," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They laid -1, -2 and -2.5 and we're at -3 now. I guess they all don't think highly of Osweiler."
Can he do it again?
Last week it was 380 yards passing and three TDs for the man dubbed 'Brocktober' by the South Florida fans. Recent history has shown Osweiler having trouble stringing together two good games in a row. When bettors learned Osweiler was going to start last weekend they ran full speed to bet the Bears from -3 up to -7.
CG Technology books opened the game pick 'em on Monday while others left the game off the board. William Hill's sports books in Nevada and New Jersey opened the Lions -3 on Wednesday and have seen 86 percent of the cash since coming on the Dolphins as well as 57 percent of the tickets.
William Hill's most lopsided game of the week is the early London game with the Chargers getting 96 percent of the cash and 82 percent of the tickets written against the Titans. Because the Titans have lost their last two and the Chargers have won their last three, this looks a case of bettors believing what they saw last as gospel. Boyd Gaming books have the high number in Las Vegas at -7 EVEN with most others sitting at -6.5. From a historical perspective, the Titans have failed to cover the past 10 meetings with the Chargers.
"They (sharp money) bet the Colts and also took the Giants +5 in the Monday night game," Simbal said. "I don't know what the Giants angle could be. And they took the 49ers +10 also."
The Colts have been run up from -6.5 to -7.5 against the Bills at most books, but CG books are the lone -7 out there. Rookie QB Josh Allen (elbow) is out for the Bills and veteran Derek Anderson will start. The Colts get wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back this week.
The Giants have lost three straight while the Falcons just ended a three-game losing streak with a win and cover against the Buccaneers last week. The key stat here is the Falcons defense allowing 33 points per game and 472 yards per game at home. It's reasonable to believe the Giants can score on them as well. CG books started the Falcons -4 and slid up the ladder to -6 before sharps bet it back down to -4. The total is 54.5, and the crazy thing is that it's not even the highest total of the week.
The Bengals and Chiefs Sunday night game is 58.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and while most books have the Chiefs -6 the SuperBook has them a city-low at -5.5. William Hill books have seen 94 percent of their action come on the Chiefs and 90 percent of the tickets written on them as well. It's surprising that they're still at -6 with that type of divide. With it being the Sunday night game and the Chiefs being the only 6-0 team against the spread, this game is going to be noose of the day for the books.
"The public has played the Chargers, Patriots, and Vikings," Simbal said. "Sharp money also played the Vikings to move them off -3."
Professional bettor Jeff Whitelaw said he played the Vikings -3 at the Jets earlier in the week. It's -3.5 everywhere with Boyd Gaming moving to -4 EVEN. Yes, that's not a typo. It's -4 EVEN.
If you want to see the betting story of the Patriots at Bears, the most active sports book has been the South Point because they use exclusively flat number -- no -4 (EVEN) or 3.5 (-120) with that team. They opened Patriots -3.5 and ping-ponged back and forth with -3 and -3.5 and then eventually down to -2.5. Book director Chris Andrews has said in the past it takes multiple limit bets for him to get of -3.5, -3 and -2.5. They'll be rooting for the Patriots to win by four-points or more. CG Tech books are -2.5 -125 while every other book is -3 EVEN.
The 6-0 Rams opened as 11-point road favorites at San Francisco with CG Books and they've been bet down to -9.5 with large money. Boyd Gaming is using -10 EVEN, the highest number in town if still looking for some 49ers action.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.
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