Oct 20, 2018
Total Talk - Week 7
Week 6 Recap
The ‘over’ came out ahead again in Week with a 9-6 record and that pushes the high side to 51-42 (55%) on the season. It’s safe to say that 14 of the outcomes were never in doubt and the one outlier took place in Miami as the Dolphins led the Bears 7-0 at halftime. Due to the quarterback switch for Miami, this total closed at 40 ½ and looked like the right side after the first 30 minutes. Unfortunately for ‘under’ bettors, they watched Chicago come out firing in the third quarter with 21 unanswered points. Then, the Dolphins countered with their own big plays and rallied for the 31-28 upset win in overtime.
|2018 Total Results - Game & Halves|
|2018 Results - Other|
The Coast-to-Coast angle connected again last week with the Chargers dicing up the Browns 38-14 in Cleveland. Another bread winner for total bettors early through six weeks has been playing the ‘over’ in games played indoors.
Keep an Eye On
-- We’ve only had four teams play off the bye so far but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in those games and the defensive units have been torched for 33.5 points per game which includes the effort by the Bears (28) and Buccaneers (34) last Sunday. Side bettors should note that teams with rest are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, with Carolina being the lone winner albeit lucky against the N.Y. Giants in Week 5. This weekend, the Saints and Lions will be playing with rest.
-- There are five non-conference games on Sunday and looking above you can see that we haven’t had a dominating lean to the ‘over’ or ‘under’ through six weeks. For this card, I would keep an eye on the weather in these games. The Lions and Browns will be facing an unusual type of heat in Florida this weekend as they visit the Dolphins and Buccaneers respectively. Also, the windy conditions of Soldier Field may not be kind to the Patriots. Lastly, two indoor teams in the Vikings and Saints will also be out of their elements in road games at the Jets and Ravens.
-- The NFL International Series saw a lopsided affair last Sunday as Seattle dominated Oakland 27-3. Including that easy ‘under’ (48), the total results through 22 games played in the UK sit at 11-11. The Chargers and Titans will meet at Wembley Stadium in an early game (9:30 a.m. ET) this week.
-- The popular “Thursday Night Total” system stayed perfect last week and sits at 5-0 after the Chiefs and Patriots combined for 83 points. For new readers viewing ‘Total Talk’ for the first time, the angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Giants-Falcons matchup fits for Week 7 since New York played at home last Thursday versus Philadelphia. As bad as New York has looked offensively, this Falcons defense is a mess and we could be in store for another cracker on the scoreboard this Monday.
-- Another angle I noted last week came up empty with the "Road Total System." The trend calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. Baltimore and Tennessee fit in Week 6 and the Ravens blanked the Titans 21-0 at home. Including that low side result, the ‘over’ is now 44-24 (65%) over the last 12 seasons. If interested, this angle is in play again this Sunday as the Los Angeles Rams will be playing their third straight game on the road at San Francisco.
-- Totals in the fifties saw a stalemate (2-2) last week and through six weeks the ‘over’ is 12-9 in games that closed at 50 points or higher.
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning per [...].
New England at Chicago: 50 to 48 ½
Houston at Jacksonville: 44 to 41
New Orleans at Baltimore: 51 to 49 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: Over 86%
Minnesota at N.Y. Jets: Over 85%
Detroit at Miami: Over 82%
Cincinnati at Kansas City: Over 77%
Houston at Jacksonville: Under 76%
For the second straight week, going with the leans produced a 4-1 record and all of the results were clear-cut.
Houston at Jacksonville: This is one of the lowest totals (41) on the board and it’s justified, especially when you factor in the offensive numbers for both Houston (22.5 PPG) and Jacksonville (18.2 PPG). Plus, the defensive units for the Texans (22.8 PPG) and Jaguars (21 PPG) are in the top-half of the league in scoring. Last season, Houston only managed to score a combined 14 points in the two meetings against Jacksonville but it didn’t have QB Deshaun Watson available for either game. Even though the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series, those outcomes were tight and expecting a shootout this week is a long shot.
Dallas at Washington: A good old-fashioned NFC East grinder is expected for this matchup with the total hovering between 41 and 42 points. Based on the home-away numbers for both clubs, it’s hard to argue for a high-scoring game. Dallas is averaging 12.3 PPG on the road this season and the Washington defense (18.3 PPG) has been very solid at FedEx Field. Both Dallas (4-2) and Washington (3-2) have leaned to the ‘under’ this season but the last five matchups in this series have watched the ‘over’ cash.
L.A. Rams at San Francisco: This week’s total between these teams certainly shows you how the new-look offensive game in the NFL is changing. In the last 30 meetings, 49 was the highest closing total in this series and that occurred in the 2004 season. Everybody knows that the Rams (32.7 PPG) offense is a machine and despite losing its starting QB, the 49ers (24.7 PPG) have managed to stay the course offensively. The issue for San Francisco is its scoring defense (29.8 PPG) and that unit has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 on the season. Since Sean McVay became the head coach in Los Angeles, the Rams have averaged 31.9 PPG on the road and that’s led to an 8-3 ‘over’ mark.
Under the Lights
Week 6 was the first time this season that the ‘over’ cashed in all three primetime games. Including this past Thursday’s result to the high side between the Broncos and Cardinals, the ‘over’ sits at 11-9 in games played at night this season and the oddsmakers are expecting more shootouts this weekend.
SNF – Cincinnati at Kansas City: This is the highest total (58 ½) on the board and it’s a hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs offense (35.8 PPG) and their defense (28.7 PPG). Plus, the Bengals offense (29 PPG) has been clicking this season and their road production (30.7 PPG) has actually been better. All of those numbers have helped both clubs posted 4-2 ‘over’ marks on the season. Make a note that this game was flexed into the primetime slot and while it doesn’t seem like a big deal, it may play a factor and both teams are coming off tough losses in Week 6.
MNF – N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: The ‘over’ has gone 4-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season and fans have been treated to points by the Falcons (34.5 PPG) and their opponents (33.2 PPG). I actually thought this total would be a tad higher due to Atlanta’s defense but New York hasn’t shown much firepower on offense (19.5 PPG). While the Giants have struggled offensively, their two best scoring efforts came on the road at Houston (27) and at Carolina (31). Knowing Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody, you can see why sharp bettors have jumped on New York in this spot.
After dropping 10 cents in each of the last three weeks, we turned the tide in Week 6 and produced a profit ($195) and it could’ve been a clean sweep if the Bears didn’t explode in the second-half. The bankroll ($350) remains positive through 24 plays on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Minnesota-N.Y. Jets 46
Best Under: New Orleans-Baltimore 49 ½
Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 23 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Under 56 New England-Chicago
Over 44 ½ L.A. Rams-San Francisco
Over 46 ½ N.Y. Giants-Atlanta
Chris David can be reached at [email protected]