Total Talk - Week 8

Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an eye-opening 10-4 record in Week 7 and that’s the most lopsided total results we’ve seen in a week this season. The New Orleans-Baltimore 24-23 final could’ve and probably should’ve gone ‘over’ (49 ½) if it wasn’t for a missed extra point by Ravens kicker Justin Tucker but to be fair, that was a 10-7 game at halftime and ‘under’ bettors were on the right side. Late-night ‘over’ bettors on Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Bengals could have a gripe too as KC pulled off the gas late but we’ve certainly seen that movie before.

Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 55-52 (51%) mark and the oddsmakers should be applauded with their adjustments.

Keep an Eye On

-- Teams off the ‘bye’ have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their following game and the one ‘under’ was the Saints-Ravens outcome mentioned above. Along with New Orleans, Detroit also won last Sunday with rest so teams playing off the bye improved to 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the season. The four teams playing with rest this weekend include the Packers, Raiders, Steelers and Seahawks.

-- The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the NFL International Series matchups played at London this season. The Jaguars and Eagles will meet this weekend from Wembley Stadium (9:30 a.m. ET). The final international game will take place on Nov. 19 from Mexico City when the Chiefs and Rams square off in a possible Super Bowl preview at Estadio Azteca. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

-- A trio (Packers, Buccaneers, Lions) of old-school NFC Central (Google it) teams have been the best ‘over’ teams (5-1) so far. Four clubs (Cowboys, Bills, Ravens, Titans) have all watched the ‘under’ go 5-2.

-- Two systems I noted last week both came up as losers and while the final scores seemed close to ‘over’ tickets, the ‘under’ was the right side in both games. The “Thursday Night Total” system sits at 5-1 and the angle applies to the San Francisco-Arizona game this Sunday, since the Cardinals played at home on Thursday in Week 7. The “Road Total System” sits at 0-2 this season and will be in play for the final time when the Saints play their third straight road game at Carolina in Week 15.

-- It took a while but we’re starting to see the defenses catch up with the offenses. There were four totals that closed in the fifties last week and the ‘under’ went 4-0 in those games. Through seven weeks, the ‘under’ owns a 13-12 mark in games that closed at 50 or higher. We’ll find out if last week was an anomaly with five games in Week 7 having totals listed in the fifties.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 as of Saturday morning per [...].

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville: 41 to 43
N.Y. Jets at Chicago: 46 to 44
Denver at Kansas City: 55 ½ to 53 ½
San Francisco at Arizona: 43 ½ to 41 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

New Orleans at Minnesota: Over 93%
Philadelphia at Jacksonville: Over 90%
Indianapolis at Oakland: Over 90%
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Over 84%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 3-0 in the divisional games last week and the low side is 16-13 in these contests on the season. This week’s batch has three rematches on tap.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The pair played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1 and the late rally by the Browns helped the ‘over’ (41) connect. The high side is now 3-1 in the last four meetings. While rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has shown some flashes, the offense (16.3 PPG) has looked pedestrian the last three weeks while the Steelers have scored 41 and 28 points in their last two wins and they’re coming off the bye.

Denver at Kansas City: The Chiefs captured a 27-23 win at the Broncos in Week 4 and the ‘under’ (53 ½) slid in. Prior to that result, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0-1 run in this series. Denver exploded for 45 points last week at Arizona but two of the scores came from the defense. The Broncos had success running the football (159 yards) in the first meeting and I would expect them to push that game-plan again, especially against if you want to keep the league’s top scoring offense in the Chiefs (37.1 PPG) off the field. Even though KC has lit up the scoreboard, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and four of the last five in this series. Knowing that the Redskins have been winning games with their run offense and run defense this season, it’s hard to imagine a shootout here. Especially, when you factor in the Giants offense that is averaging 15.3 PPG at home. Washington (4-2) and New York (4-3) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season.

San Francisco at Arizona: A lot of heavy money has already come in on the ‘under’ in this game and it’s hard to disagree with the move based on the form for both clubs. Arizona captured a 28-18 win at SF in their Week 5 encounter and the ‘over’ (40 ½) connected, thanks to 26 combined points in the fourth quarter. Prior to that lucky result, the ‘under’ had cashed in the three previous meetings. We haven’t seen much from the Cardinals (13.1 PPG) offensively yet they have seen the ‘over’ cash in three straight games.

New England at Buffalo: (See Below)

Under the Lights

After watching the Thursday Night matchup go ‘over’ in Week 7, the ‘under’ connected in the Sunday and Monday matchups. Including this past TNF outcome between the Dolphins and Texans, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge (12-11) through 23 games played at night. Make a note that we’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in five straight TNF matchups and the high side is 6-2 (75%) on the season in the midweek game.

New Orleans at Minnesota: The rematch of the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ is easily the top game of the weekend and bettors are expecting the Saints (-2) to get revenge over the Vikings, who have some key injuries all over the field. The total (53) seems a tad inflated when you consider the two meetings last season (Week 1, Playoffs) closed at 46 ½ and 47 ½. The Viking have improved offensively with QB Kirk Cousins but he’s been sloppy at home this season and against weaker opponents. The Saints offense (34 PPG) remains a machine under QB Drew Brees and even though the defense (27.2 PPG) is still suspect, the unit has been a tad better on the road.

New England at Buffalo: When the Patriots went 16-0 in the 2007 regular season, they were listed as 16-point road favorites over the Bills and destroyed them 56-10. Fast forward to this Monday and New England is once again a double-digit road favorite (-13 ½) at Orchard Park. While this Patriots team isn’t on the same level of the 2007 squad, Buffalo could be worse. The Bills (11.6 PPG) can’t move the football and the QB situation is a mess. Even though New England has scored 38-plus points in four straight games, this is the lowest total (44) that it has seen this season and it’s hard to imagine Buffalo helping the cause. I expect a business trip for the Patriots with a lot of ground and pound action, especially with a tougher test (Green Bay) on deck next week at home.

Fearless Predictions

As we all know, catching breaks is a big part of the business and the missed PAT in the Ravens game kept our deficit ($10) to a minimum. Through seven weeks and 28 wagers, we remain up on the season ($340). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-L.A. Rams 56 ½
Best Under: N.Y. Jets-Chicago 44
Best Team Total: Over 28 ½ Steelers

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 41 Seattle-Detroit
Under 51 Washington-N.Y. Giants
Over 45 ½ New Orleans-Minnesota

Chris David can be reached at [email protected]