Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
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After three straight weeks of losing to the NFL, Nevada sports books know exactly what teams they have to beat down in Week 10 action to halt the losing.
"Another week of fun," laughed CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "You can tell just by the betting patterns this week that the public is dialed in on five teams and the week is basically going to come down to how we fare in those games. We're going to either do extremely well or get smoked. It won't be one of those Sunday's where we grind out a 5-to-6 percent win."
The weighted five-team public parlay, something that has sent the books reeling the past three weeks now comes with more cash behind it. The public is flush with cash right now and they're content on riding the hot streak and pressing rather than socking some away for Black Friday shopping.
"They're all short favorites and a couple are on the road," Simbal said of the public plays. "They like Atlanta (-6 at Cleveland), the Saints (-5.5 at Cincinnati), New England (-6.5 at Tennessee), the Bears (-6.5 vs Lions), and Eagles (-7 vs. Cowboys)."
Those same teams are also tilting the scales at William Hill's sports books across the country. The Falcons have 96 percent of the tickets written in that game, the Saints have 85 percent, The Patriots have 93 percent, the Bears have 84 percent and the Eagles have 86 percent. That is a collective effort by the masses to crush the books again, this time paying at 20-to-1 odds from a five-teamer. I love it. Instead of a $50 parlay like last week, they come with a $100 parlay. The action should be huge everywhere.
"Compounding our risk on those games is that we've got sharp money laying the Eagles as well," Simbal said. "They laid -6, -6.5 and we're at -7 (-120) now."
The Cowboys have lost all four road games and last two overall with weak offensive performances while the Eagles come off a bye fluttering with so many questions at 4-4, covering just three times. The Cowboys average road score has been 13-19 and the total for this game is at 43.5. All four of the Eagles home games have stayed Under an all four of the Cowboys road games have also stayed Under.
That was the only game where the sharps piled on with the public. Simbal said he did get some help from the wise-guys on one of the big public games to balance out their liability.
"We did get some Bengals money, and I'm happy about that," he said. "They took +5.5 so we didn't have to make that move to -6."
CG Tech books have the only Saints -5 number while most others are -5.5 with the exception of MGM books who are -4.5, a certain sign they have some heavy Bengals action as well. Bengals WR A.J. Green is expected to miss the game with a foot injury and new Saints WR Dez Bryant also won't play.
"They also bet the Under in that game as well," said Simbal. "We went from 54 down to 53.5." The high number in town is Station Casinos at 54.5, a sign that they're already in parlay protection mode after being peppered by them the last three weeks, maybe more than most books because of their clientele of locals on the outskirts of Las Vegas.
"We also got some sharp Cardinals action at +17 and +16.5, as well as the Under (50)," said Simbal who now has the Chiefs as 16-point favorites with a total at 49.5.
The Chiefs have been one of those popular public teams all season due to being an NFL-best 8-1 ATS. as well as scoring 36 ppg, but the large spread scared most away.
"They laid the Bucs -2.5 and also bet them on the money-line early at -130," Simbal said. CG books have the money-line all the way up to -150. The Wynn and Westgate have the highest number at -160. The early move was spurred by the Redskins being without Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams, as well as RB Chris Thompson and deep threat WR Paul Richardson. The Bucs defense allows 414 ypg and 34 ppg and they have the worst turnover margin (-15) in the league also. It should be a fun game. The totals sits at 50.5 at CG books.
"Jacksonville was played early by a respected bettor at +3.5 and also at +3.5 (-120)," said Simbal who now has the Colts -3 (EVEN) and a total at 46.5. All of Las Vegas is at -3 EV with the exception of the South Point who are at -2.5 because they use exclusively flat numbers. They're a good indicator on what will happen in the market so if you like the Colts, wait a bit, and if you like Jacksonville get the +3 and lay the -120 happily.
One other game with some large action was the Seattle money taking +10 and also Under 51. CG books have the Rams -9.5 and the total at 50.5. The Rams are currently on a 1-5 ATS run showing they may be a bit overrated. The public still loves the Rams, but they just can't trust them to cash so they stay off it.
We'll see how this all plays out Sunday. The public has the hot hand, but the edge always circles back to the house.