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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM

Sunday Blitz - Week 10

GAMES TO WATCH

Saints (-5 ½, 54) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

Entering last week’s matchup with the undefeated Rams, New Orleans (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) was in a good position to still grab a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs even with a loss. However, the Saints withstood a Los Angeles rally after building a 35-14 lead and pulled away from the Rams, 45-35. Drew Brees connected with Michael Thomas on a 72-yard touchdown pass as the Saints grabbed not only their seventh consecutive win, but also the all-important tiebreaker over the Rams for playoff seeding.

The Bengals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are back from the bye week as Cincinnati looks to stay one-half game behind Pittsburgh for the top spot in the AFC North. Cincinnati will be without star wide receiver A.J. Green for the next two games with a toe injury, as the Bengals’ offense has been outgained in each of the last three contests by 174 yards or more.

Cincinnati has fared well in the home underdog role under Marvin Lewis through the years by posting a solid 9-1 ATS mark since 2013, including a victory over Baltimore in Week 2 as a short ‘dog. The Saints have cashed in six consecutive games overall and own a 6-1 ATS ledger as a road favorite dating back to 2016 with the only loss coming in Week 17 at Tampa Bay last season.

Best Bet: Saints 24, Bengals 21

Patriots (-6 ½, 47) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

The New England train keeps rolling as the Patriots (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) picked up their sixth consecutive win in last Sunday night’s 31-17 triumph over the Packers. New England outscored Green Bay, 14-0 in the fourth quarter to grab the cover as five-point favorites, while playing without All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots improved to 5-0 at Gillette Stadium this season, while covering for the fourth time in Foxboro.

The Titans (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) climbed back to the .500 mark after running the Cowboys last Monday night, 28-14. Tennessee picked up not only its fifth underdog cover in six tries this season, but also its fourth outright win when receiving points. The defense continued to look stout by limiting its sixth opponent in the past seven games to 20 points or less, even though the game at Dallas barely finished OVER the total of 40 ½.

New England has captured each of the past seven matchups with Tennessee since 2003, including a 35-14 victory in the divisional playoffs last season as 13 ½-point favorites. The last five meetings have been decided by 17, 59, 21, 17, and 21 as Tennessee’s last cover against New England came in the 2003 playoffs.

Best Bet: Patriots 23, Titans 17

Seahawks at Rams (-10, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

For the first time this season, the Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) fell short of a victory in a 45-35 setback at New Orleans. Los Angeles is still in control of the NFC West race, but the Rams aren’t a lock for home-field advantage in the NFC after dropping the head-to-head battle with the Saints. Now the Rams return to the Coliseum following a tough week in the area with the bar shooting tragedy and the rampant wildfires. Los Angeles covered its first three games of the season, but the Rams have gone backwards of late from the covering perspective by posting a 1-5 ATS mark in the past six contests.

The Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) are looking up at the Rams in the NFC West as Seattle’s seesaw campaign continues following a 25-17 home setback to the Chargers last week. Seattle has rebounded nicely since an 0-2 start by winning four of the past six games, while cashing the UNDER in six of the previous seven contests. In very un-Seattle-like fashion, the Seahawks have performed better away from CenturyLink Field (3-2) than they have at home (1-2).

In the first meeting this season in Seattle back in Week 5, the Rams held off the Seahawks, 33-31. Seattle cashed as 7 ½-point underdogs and owned a seven-point lead heading to the fourth quarter. However, Todd Gurley’s third touchdown of the day and a Cairo Santos field goal led Los Angeles to a second straight win at CenturyLink Field. Last season, the Seahawks went into the Coliseum and tripped up the Rams, 16-10 as two-point underdogs.

Best Bet: Rams 26, Seahawks 23

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 23-20-2 this season)
Jets -6 ½
Bengals +5 ½
Titans +6 ½
Jaguars +3
Lions +6 ½

Chris David (1-4 last week, 26-18-1 this season)
Cardinals +16 ½
Packers -9 ½
Seahawks +9 ½
Cowboys +6 ½
Giants +3

SURVIVOR PICKS

Kevin Rogers (8-1 this season)
Jets over Bills

Chris David (8-1 this season)
Jets over Bills

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 47 ½ - Dolphins at Packers

Is Green Bay’s season over? Not quite yet, but the Packers need to start winning some games and dig out of a 3-4-1 hole. The Packers’ defense has been chewed up the last few weeks by allowing 31, 29, 30, and 31 points. However, Green Bay faces Miami this week as the Dolphins scored only a defensive touchdown and two field goals in last week’s home win over the Jets. The offense has failed to top the 23-point mark in four road contests, while finishing UNDER three times.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Eagles have failed to win consecutive games this season, one year removed from winning the first Super Bowl in franchise history. Philadelphia hosts Dallas on Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Cowboys seek their first road win in five tries. The last time Dallas were listed as this high of a road underdog (+7), the Cowboys knocked off the Eagles, 20-10 in Philadelphia as seven-point underdogs.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Falcons won their first road game of the season last week with a convincing showing at Washington. Now, Atlanta is back on the highway this week with a visit to Cleveland, as the Browns try to snap a four-game losing streak. The Falcons opened as 3 ½-point favorites last Sunday when the Westgate Superbook released its initial numbers. Now, Atlanta has been pushed up to six at many books, including the Westgate. The Falcons have not covered in back-to-back games this season, while Cleveland owns a 1-3 ATS mark the past four games since a 4-1 ATS start.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

If you believe in just plain ATS numbers, there isn’t a solid reason to back the Cardinals as heavy underdogs at Kansas City. Arizona has compiled a 3-8-1 ATS mark as a road underdog since last season, while the Chiefs are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2017. However, Kansas City is laying 16 ½ points with a huge game against the Rams next week in Mexico City. The last time the Cardinals received this many points, Arizona covered as 16-point underdogs in the 2012 season finale at San Francisco in a 27-14 defeat.

Want FREE picks for Week 10 in the NFL? Check them out here for the top games of the weekend along with other insider selections.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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