Nov 12, 2018
Books rebound in Week 10
After three straight weeks of losing Nevada sports books bounced back Sunday in Week 10 NFL action as the popular favorites went 4-7-1 against-the-spread with five of the underdogs winning outright.
"It was better than last week," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback.
Last week was an epic loss, but Week 10 turned out to be the biggest win of the season for some bet shops.
"The morning was great for us, but we lost all three in the afternoon," said William Hill's head [...] Nick Bogdanovich. "The Dallas win was a monster. It ended up being our best Sunday of the year."
The Eagles number ran from -6 to -7.5 against the Cowboys and 91 percent of William Hill's cash on the game sided with the Eagles so when the Cowboys won 27-20 in an isolated night game situation, it was huge for every book in the state. Stoneback said the MGM books would have given back 25 percent of the win on the day if the Eagles covered.
The Eagles were one of five favorites the public was all over, and they came flush with cash from winning the past three weeks. The Falcons, Saints, Patriots, and Bears were the other four, so the books got gifts with three of them losing outright which helped ruin heaps of money-line parlays and teasers.
Perhaps the most impressive pick of the day by the public was the Saints who won their eighth straight and covered their seventh straight in a 51-14 win at Cincinnati. It was the fourth time this season that the Saints scored 40 points or more. The number ran from Saints -4 to -6 and it was almost rubber stamped onto every parlay ticket on the day.
Are the Saints the top-rated team in the NFL in regards to making point-spreads? Westgate Superbook manager Ed Salmons says he still has the Rams rated the highest. In my personal ratings, I have the Rams 1-point better than the Saints.
The Browns ended a four-game losing streak in a 28-16 win against the Falcons (-5) who snapped their three-game win streak. Fair to now call them the phony Falcons?
Something we don't see very often is the Patriots pulling Tom Brady halfway through the fourth quarter, but it happened in a 34-10 loss at Tennessee where the Titans were 6.5-point underdogs. It's the third road game this season the Patriots have lost by double figures and ends a Patriots six-game win streak (5-1 ATS). It was the most bet game of the morning schedule at William Hill sports books and 91 percent of the tickets were on the Patriots as well as 90 percent of the cash wagered.
"The Browns win was our best by far and then the Titans winning was also right there as a close second," said Stoneback.
The Bears (-7) had lopsided ticket counts in parlays and the public was correct in their 34-22 home win against the lazy Lions. The most interesting detail from that game was Bears kicker Cody Parkey missing two extra points and two field goals with all four misses hitting off the right crossbar.
"The Chiefs not covering was also good," Stoneback said. "The crowd was going nuts late when it looked like the Chiefs defense was returning a late TD."
But the score didn't happen and the Cardinals got the money in a 26-14 loss at Kansas City. The masses were scared off the large spread that dropped from -16.5 down to -15.5, but they were still a popular play. The Cardinals are one of the lowest rated teams in the NFL, but the spread is the equalizer and they're now 5-4 ATS. The Chiefs dropped to an NFL-best 8-2 ATS, and it's only because of their lousy defense that they aren't rated up there with the Rams and Saints.
The worst rated team in the NFL is the Bills, but behind backup QB Matt Barkley they looked like a middle of the road team in a 41-10 win at the Jets as 7-point underdogs. Any given day, any team can win. This is the NFL where every player is a professional. And forget that silly talk of Alabama beating the Bills. Call Buffalo -28 over the Crimson Tide.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.