Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
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'Don't ever believe what you saw last' is what an old wise guy told me when I first started writing bet tickets in Las Vegas. And it always stuck with me in bookmaking and betting, but the masses can't resist believing what they saw last and they're coming hard at a couple of those teams in NFL Week 11 action.
"We're starting to see it shape up already," Westgate Superbook VP Jay Kornegay said Friday afternoon. "We're seeing a lot of action on the Cowboys (at Atlanta) and it's one where everyone just saw the Cowboys win at Philadelphia after just witnessing the Falcons look awful in a loss at Cleveland."
It's not just the public jumping in on Cowboys, either.
"We had sharp money push the Cowboys from getting +4.5 down to +3," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "Everyone saw the Dallas road win and appear impressed."
The popularity of the isolated night games -- as Dallas played in last week -- boosts the immediate image and perception of the winning team, especially the Sunday night games which usually has one of the best match-ups of the week.
"A couple of other sharp plays we took were on the Broncos at +7.5 and I can understand it despite the Chargers' six-game win streak," said Simbal. "The Chargers' special teams are awful and there really is no home field advantage for the Chargers in Carson; they don't have any fans. There will be a lot of Orange in the crowd. Denver is off a bye and has shown they can run the ball."
Denver has averaged 133 ground yards on the road while going 2-2 ATS this season and have also covered both games this season when getting =7 or more. The Chargers won and covered both meetings last season and their last loss this season was against the Rams, Sept. 23. CG Tech books have the Chargers now -7 -105 and William Hill books are at -7 EVEN. The South Point is at -7-flat and will be the best indicator more sharp Denver money is coming. So if you want +7 with Denver, you might want to hurry and if you like the Chargers -6.5 better -- who wouldn't -- then wait a while.
"They (sharps) also took the Titans at +2.5 and +2," said Simbal who now has the Colts -1.5. "The Titans have been impressive the past two weeks.
Last week, the Titans put a 34-10 beat down on the Patriots and the week prior they rolled 28-14 at Dallas to end a three-game losing streak. Marcus Mariota has been the difference-maker. he's elevated his game like its the playoffs, and in a way, this game is like a mini-playoff game. The Colts come in having won their last three.
"We're seeing a lot of action on the Vikings, but I think by game-time we'll see it balanced out with Bears play,' said Kornegay of the Sunday night game at Soldier Field.
The Vikings won both meetings last season and both stayed Under the total, but the Bears got the money in both.
"It's kind of the perfect Pro' versus Joe's game," Simbal said. "The public likes the Bears and the sharps are on the Vikings."
The NFC North-leading Bears have won and covered their last three while the Vikings have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following their embarrassing loss to the Bills. Minnesota's only straight-up loss since then was to the Saints and Rams.
CG Tech and Wynn Resorts have the Bears -3 (EVEN) and the Mirage is at -3 (+110) showing somebody with deep pockets really likes the Vikings but the house doesn't want to move off the most key number in the NFL. almost every other Nevada book now has the Bears -2.5. The Superbook is -2.5 (-120). The total is steady at 44.5.
The Vikings-Bears game figures to be the most wagered upon of the day, but not until there's the urgency of having to bet it. As of Friday afternoon, the game generating the most interest as far as tickets written is in the 1 pm PT wave with the Eagles getting +8.5 to +8 at New Orleans with a total set at 56.
"I can see the storm brewing already for this one," said Kornegay. "We're definitely going to need to Eagles, lots of saints play already."
It's the public parlay root game of the week. Everyone loves the Saints, and why not? They've won eight straight and covered their last seven while having their rating upped almost a point each week.
"We're heavy on Saints action, but we had a limit wager take +8.5 with the Eagles so we're at +8 now," said Simbal.
Sounds like Simbal is booking to respected faces rather than actual overall risk, which is common practice in Las Vegas.
"We're going to need the Lions pretty good, too," Simbal said who has the Panthers as 4-point road favorites. Public perception is way down on the Lions who have lost their last three. But to be fair, the Lions lost to three really good teams: at Chicago, at Minnesota, and the Seahawks. Carolina comes off a 52-21 beating at Pittsburgh and is 1-3 on the road, losing by a 30-20 average score.
There were two big total wagers as well.
"My best player or the player who does the best against us took the Monday night game Over 63," said Simbal.
The Chiefs-Rams total is the highest I've ever seen and a sharp guy says its still too low likely not because of the Rams and Chiefs unstoppable offense, but because of the terrible defenses. The Rams defense has been gashed regularly the past three weeks. The Rams are a steady -3.5 in a game that was originally scheduled for Mexico City but moved to Los Angeles because of poor field conditions. If betting the game before the move, your bet will be refunded because of the location change, so go re-bet it so you're not sweating a game for 3.5 hours and find out you have no action.
"We had a huge play on the Bucs and Giants Over 52," said Kornegay who is now at 53.5.
Simbal said some of his other top public plays found in lots of parlays has been Pittsburgh "in a massive way" and the Cardinals (-5.5). "They don't like the Raiders at all," he said
Another example of bettors jumping on what they saw last. The Raiders have lost their last five and failed to cover all five. That's hard to do. And then they saw the Cardinals defense go into Arrowhead Stadium and play well and get the cover. The Cards game before that was a home win against the favored 49ers. The Cardinals really have been underrated going 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven.
The public seems to have some really good points there on the Raiders-Cardinals.