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Total Talk – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
Week 10 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-6 last week it’s and fair to say that the results were never in doubt in a dozen of the games. Total bettors riding the ‘over’ in the Patriots-Titans looked good at halftime with Tennessee ahead 24-10 but New England was shutout 10-0 in the second-half. Another tough outcome took place in Philadelphia as Dallas led 13-3 at halftime and the ‘under’ (45 ½) looked like the right side. Sure enough, the pair combined for 31 points in the final 30 minutes and helped bettors chasing SNF ‘over’ tickets. Through 10 weeks, we’re looking at a stalemate (74-74) and that back-and-forth action shows you how good the oddsmakers have been this season.

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 8-6 9-5 5-9
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 74-74 77-71 68-76-4

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 10 2-2 5-1 1-0 1-0
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 23-18 20-24 16-10 6-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 as of Saturday morning per [...].

Dallas at Atlanta: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Tennessee at Indianapolis: 48 to 50 ½
Denver at L.A. Chargers: 47 to 45 ½
Philadelphia at New Orleans: 54 ½ to 56 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at Atlanta: Over 91%
Oakland at Arizona: Under 85%
Denver at L.A. Chargers: Under 82%
Philadelphia at New Orleans: Over 80%
Kansas City at L.A. Rams: Over 76%

Divisional Matchups

If you’re a believe that all things balance out in the long run, then you could’ve cleaned up last week by playing the ‘over’ in the divisional games. After watched the ‘under’ go 10-2 the last three weeks and 23-15 on the season, the ‘over’ bounced back with a 5-1 (86%) mark last Sunday.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: As of Saturday morning, no numbers posted on this game and the quarterback issue for the Ravens is up in the air. I can’t imagine Baltimore moving the football if Joe Flacco doesn’t go and Cincinnati certainly showed how limited it is offensively without wide receiver A.J. Green. With healthy players, the ‘over’ went 2-0 last season but the ‘under’ was on a 3-0-1 run prior to those results.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The total split last season but that was without Colts QB Andrew Luck playing. Make a note that the signal caller is 9-0 in his career against the Titans and Indy is averaging 28.7 PPG in those contests. Something has to give here knowing Tennessee is 2-0 to the ‘under’ in divisional games while Indy is 2-0 to the ‘over.’

Denver at L.A. Chargers: If you like to play home-away trends and tendencies for head-to-head matchups, then you may lean to the ‘under’ in this matchup. The last four games played in California (LA, San Diego) have gone ‘under’ while the ‘over’ has cashed in the previous four in Colorado.

Minnesota at Chicago: (See Below)

Fifty Something

Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have watched the ‘over’ go 20-19 this season. There are four games currently in this neighborhood for Week 11 and that includes the sixty-something number posted on the MNF matchup.

Listed below are the games with totals listed in the fifties and sixties for Week 11 along with their ‘over/under’ record listed in parenthesis and some notable trends too.

Tennessee (3-6) at Indianapolis (6-3): The Colts have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home and the Indy offense (30.8 PPG) has been very sharp.

Tampa Bay (7-2) at N.Y. Giants (4-5): Something has to give in this matchup with New York only averaging 14.8 PPG at home this season, which has led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 5-0 to the ‘over’ on the road and the defense (40.2) has been atrocious in those games.

Philadelphia (4-5) at New Orleans (5-4): Three of the four ‘over’ tickets for the Birds came on the road and the one ‘under’ took place in London. The Saints own a 3-1 ‘over’ mark at the Superdome behind the perfect total combo – a great offense (37.2 PPG) and a weak defense (30 PPG).

Kansas City (5-5) at L.A. Rams (5-5): Chiefs stronger ‘over’ team (4-1) on the road and the offense (36.8 PPG) has been better as well. The Rams flipped their total results from last season, when they posted more ‘over’ tickets on the road. This season, the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 at the Coliseum.

Bye Bye Rust

The ‘over’ has gone 14-6 (70%) in teams playing off the ‘bye’ this season and while we saw a couple clubs struggle offensively last week, rested units are averaging 25.8 points per game so far. Four teams will be playing with rest this week and two of the clubs have shown solid numbers with their coaches.

Bengals at Ravens: As noted above, QB issues key for Baltimore but John Harbaugh is 8-2 both SU and ATS in his last 10 games with rest and the defense has only allowed 13.7 PPG during this span.

Texans at Redskins: Houston’s Bill O’Brien is another coach (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) who has put up solid numbers off the bye. The offense has averaged 23.8 PPG and what’s impressive is that all four of those games were on the road.

Broncos at Chargers
Vikings at Bears

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ posted a 3-0 record in the primetime games last week and we had another Thursday ‘over’ connect this week already as the Seahawks outlasted the Packers 27-24 at home. Including those four results, the ‘over’ sits at 18-15 on the season in games played under the lights.

Minnesota at Chicago: The Vikings captured a pair of ugly wins over the Bears (23-10, 20-17) last season and those totals ranged from 38 to 41. This week’s number is higher (44 ½) and that’s a little surprising knowing Chicago (319 YPG) and Minnesota (322 YPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in total defense. However, the Vikings offense (30 PPG) has been better away from home and the Bears enter this game on a 5-1 ‘over’ run. Chicago’s offense (34.3 PPG) has been on fire during this stretch but duplicating those numbers won’t be as easy versus Minnesota. Make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 on Sunday Night Football this season.

Kansas City at L.A. Rams: It’s rare to see NFL totals this high (63 ½) but based on what we’ve seen from the Chiefs (35.3 PPG) and Rams (33.5 PPG) offensively, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here plus neither team is great defensively. Bettors daring to take the low side could make a case that the Rams have been suspect against the run recently and the Chiefs may follow the blueprint and try to grind out a win. I’m expecting both teams to get at least five scores and the ratio of touchdowns to field goals will likely decide this result. Kansas City hasn’t settled (41 TDs, 16 FGs) for three points often but we have seen Los Angeles (36 TDs, 21 FGs) stall a little bit more offensively. The Chiefs are averaging 32 PPG in two matchups vs. the NFC this season while the Rams have posted 30.3 PPG in three wins against the AFC West. For what it’s worth, the ‘under’ is 3-0 in the past three encounters in this limited non-conference series.

Fearless Predictions

I was greedy last week and take full blame for trying to double-up on Arizona in its game at Kansas City. The Cardinals only managed 14 points and the defense played surprisingly well. That outcome put us in the red ($220) for the weekend but we’re still ahead ($510) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck! 

Best Over: Tampa Bay-N.Y. Giants 52 ½
Best Under: Denver-L.A. Chargers 45 ½
Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Chicago

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 43 Tennessee-Indianapolis
Over 42 Carolina-Detroit
Over 48 ½ Philadelphia-New Orleans

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

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