Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:01 AM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12

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The tidal wave began Thursday and the Nevada sports books are all hoping for some assistance from bad teams to help them in Sunday's Week 12 action. There's the possibility of Thanksgiving leftovers turning this week into the worst week of the season. It's that bad, already.

"We're already down thanks to Thursday's games with all three favorites covering, so going into Sunday's games we've got the possibility of making two Sunday's ago look minuscule," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci.

Two Sunday's ago had an estimated loss of $7 million across Nevada.

"Business is now magnified with the holiday weekend so the risk is going to be huge and we're already seeing a few games stand out thanks to large money-line parlays and teasers.

"The Patriots have the most risk tied into then right now carried over from all the Thursday favorites covering," said Scucci. "We've got tons of teasers and money-line parlay liability to them."

The Patriots are 10-point favorites at the New York Jets, who will be playing without quarterback Sam Darnold. QB Tom Brady sat out of Friday's practice with an illness but he's expected to play Sunday. The Jets have failed to cover or win their last four games while the Patriots come off a bye following a 34-10 loss at Tennessee which halted a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS). The book is hoping the series trend holds up where the Jets are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 meetings versus New England.

"The Steelers laying -3 on the road is another trouble spot for us and because it's one of the three late games the risk is only going to grow by kickoff," Scucci said. "But the Broncos have been our bailout team the last few weeks."

The Steelers haven't lost on the road yet (4-0-1) and they've gone 3-1-1 ATS away. They're also on a 5-0-1 ATS run coming into this game while riding a six-game win streak. But the Broncos have been the books' savior lately, underrated while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Every week the Broncos seem to be matched up against a team on an epic win streak. Last week they stopped the Chargers six-game win streak with a 23-22 win. They're going toe-to-toe with some of the best teams -- Chargers, Texans, Chiefs, and Rams -- and holding their own.

Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Steelers, which includes the 2012 playoff games when QB Tim Tebow hit a streaking WR Demaryius Thomas for the game-winning overtime touchdown. The Broncos have won four straight against Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger in Denver, but are only 1-3-1 ATS at home this season. Boyd Gaming has dropped the Steelers from -3.5 down to -3 -120.

"The other teams we have to worry about are the double-digit favorites, basically all the big favorites because of teasers," Scucci said referring to the Chargers -13 against the Cardinals, the Patriots -10 at the Jets, and the Ravens -10.5 against the Raiders. QB Joe Flacco is out once again for the Ravens. Yes, rookie QB Lamar Jackson is a double-digit favorite.

Doug Castenada at the Wynn says their top sharp plays of the week are the Broncos and 49ers and their top public play so far is the Chargers.

The Buccaneers are three-point home favorites against the 49ers despite losing their last four games.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says their top sharp plays are the 49ers, Chargers, and Browns while the public is all over the Patriots, Packers and Steelers.

Station books have the Bengals -3 EVEN at home against the Browns while the Packers are getting +3.5 at Minnesota.

The sports books have quite a large hole to dig themselves out of and they need the worst teams in the NFL to play a lifeguard role in this tidal wave.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.

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