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Total Talk – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
Week 11 Recap

The back and forth results in the totals market kept rolling along in Week 11 as the ‘over’ produced a 7-6 mark. The Sunday Night Football matchup once again bailed out ‘over’ (44) bettors as the Vikings and Bears combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter in Chicago’s 25-20 win over Minnesota. On the season, the high side holds a slight edge (81-80).

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-6 6-7 7-5-1
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 81-80 83-78 75-81-5

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 11 3-0 2-2 1-3 0-0
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 26-18 22-26 17-13 7-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Baltimore: 43 ½ to 42
Cleveland at Cincinnati: 48 to 46 ½
Tennessee at Houston: 43 to 41 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 95%
Arizona at L.A. Chargers: Under 87%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 84%
Green Bay at Minnesota: Under 73%
San Francisco at Tampa Bay: Under 72%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the three divisional matchups on Thanksgiving and it could’ve been a clean sweep if Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper doesn’t put on a show in the third quarter against Washington. Five more of these games left, two of them under the lights.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: The ‘over’ has cashed in six straight games between the pair, which includes the first meeting this season when Philadelphia captured a 34-13 road win over New York. That total closed 45 ½ and this week’s number is a tad higher (47). The Giants offense (27, 38) has helped cash the ‘over’ in their last two games and their overall defensive numbers (26.3 PPG) are still suspect. Since the aforementioned win over New York in Week 6, the Birds have dropped three of four and the offense (17 PPG) has been very pedestrian. Philadelphia’s defense (19.8 PPG) has been better at home and that production has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1. However, that Philadelphia unit has taken some serious knocks especially in the secondary.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals (-2.5) have won seven straight games versus the Browns in this rivalry but the oddsmakers are expecting a tight matchup on Sunday. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and the total (2-2) has been back and forth the last two years. However, the two games in Cincinnati went ‘over’ while the ‘under’ connected in both games at Cleveland. The Browns are playing with rest (see below) and they’ll be facing a Bengals defense (31.2 PPG) that is ranked 31st in scoring.

New England at N.Y. Jets: This is also the first encounter of the season in this series, which has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight games. The Jets are going with Josh McCown at QB again and he couldn’t do anything in their 41-10 home loss to the Bills in Week 10. Including that result, New York is averaging 10.8 PPG in its last four games (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). New England also scored 10 points in Week 10, when it was humbled 34-10 at Tennessee. That’s been a common theme for the Patriots this season as the team is averaging 20.6 PPG away from home and that’s contributed to a 3-2 ‘under’ record.

Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)

Tennessee at Houston: (See Below)

Coast to Coast

Looking above in the weekly results table, you’ll see an ‘other’ category listed as Coast to Coast. I always like to keep an eye on the travel factor, and for me that revolves around six clubs and five of them are in the Pacific Time Zone. I also include Arizona, who doesn’t observe daylight saving time. Depending on how the NFL schedule works out, each of the six teams face at least three of these situations and sometimes four.

You often hear pundits say playing the 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. ET) game is a ‘bitch’ for these West Coast clubs but that narrative has been hit or miss. I suggest you keep it mind and if it gives confidence to your lean, then use it accordingly. I bring the category up in Week 12 because three teams from the West Coast are visiting the East Coast on Sunday and all of them will be playing the dreaded early afternoon games.

Oakland at Baltimore
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Seattle at Carolina

For total purposes, the ‘over’ has gone 7-2 in these games this season. Those results include teams from the Eastern Time Zone playing in the Pacific and vice versa. Here’s a quick snap shot of my tally below per team with results.

Arizona (Under-Was)
Oakland (Over-Mia, Over-Cle, Over-Ind)
L.A. Chargers (Over-Buf, Over-Cle)
L.A. Rams (None yet, but three in a row from Week 13 through Week 15)
San Francisco (Over-Det, Over-NYG)
Seattle (Under-Det)

For side bettors, make a note the above West Coast clubs are 3-1 this season when traveling East.

Bye Bye Rust

Teams playing with rest in Week 11 went 3-1 and the ‘over’ went 3-1 in their games as well. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 17-7 (71%) in games with at least one team playing on rest. The offensive units weren’t as sharp last week (24, 20, 23, 23) but even with those results, clubs with rest are averaging 25.3 PPG this season. We’ve got six teams playing off the ‘bye’ this week and then only two more teams (Chiefs, Rams) will be playing with rest after this go ‘round.

Jacksonville at Buffalo
Cleveland at Cincinnati
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
New England at N.Y. Jets
Miami at Indianapolis

Under the Lights

Week 11 watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in primetime games and that was the second straight week that all tickets went to the high side. Heading into the weekend games, the ‘over’ sits at 19-16 and that includes the clear-cut ‘under’ ticket this past Thursday between the Falcons and Saints.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (8-4), SNF (4-7), MNF (7-5)

Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played to a 29-29 tie in Week 2 and while the ‘over’ (45) looked like the right side, this was a 20-7 game heading into the fourth quarter. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the previous seven meetings and that includes a run of four straight games played at Minnesota. The Vikings have struggled offensively at home (20.2 PPG) but fortunately the defense (19.8 PPG) has been sound and that’s led to a 4-1 ‘under’ mark. Expecting Green Bay to get going on offense away from home (21.6 PPG) seems like a long shot after what we’ve seen from the team so far this season.

Tennessee at Houston: This is the second lowest total (41 ½) on the board for Week 12 and you can see why when you look at the defensive scoring numbers for both the Titans (18.9 PPG) and Houston (20.5 PPG). In the first meeting between the clubs in Week 2, the Titans built an early 14-0 lead on a couple big plays and held on for a 20-17 home win in a game that was statistically dominated by the Texans. QB Marcus Mariota didn’t play for Tennessee in that game and while he’s banged up again, he’s expected to go Monday. In the last six games played at NRG Stadium in this series, the Texans have gone 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and the offense (36.1 PPG) has put on a show. Your emotional handicapping angle could be in play on Monday as Texans owner Bob McNair passed away on Friday.

Fearless Predictions

After going 2-1 early last Sunday, I thought the 3-1 day was in the bag but the Bears decided to tack on some late points to burn our team total. Even though the deficit ($5) was minimal, the Thanksgiving Day totals ($400) got us back on track and in solid footing ($905) heading into this Sunday.

Best Over: Arizona-L.A. Chargers 44
Best Under: San Francisco-Tampa Bay 54
Best Team Total: Over 20 N.Y. Giants

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 ½ N.Y. Giants-Philadelphia
Over 43 ½ Miami-Indianapolis
Under 55 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

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