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Total Talk – Week 13

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Week 12 Recap

The ‘under’ went 8-7 last week and the majority of the results were clear-cut. Bettors chasing ‘over’ tickets in the second-half didn’t fare too well as the ‘under’ posted an 11-4 mark in those wagers. Another trend that has come on lately has been focused on the ‘Indoor Action’ which includes all games played within domes or retractable roofs. The ‘under’ went 4-1 in Week 12 and the low side is 8-2 in the past two weeks. Based on our closing numbers, the ‘over/under’ results are even (88-88) through 12 weeks and again that shows you how good the guys behind the counter are.

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 12 7-8 8-7 4-11
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 88-88 91-85 79-92-5

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 12 1-0 3-5 1-4 2-1
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 27-18 25-31 18-17 9-3

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 13 as of Saturday morning per [...].

Carolina at Tampa Bay: 56 to 54 ½
Buffalo at Miami: 42 to 40
Denver at Cincinnati: 43 ½ to 45
Arizona at Green Bay: 46 to 43
Minnesota at New England: 48 to 49 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 13 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Arizona at Green Bay: Under 88%
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee: Over 87%
Oakland at Kansas City: Under 84%
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Under 84%
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Under 80%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ has gone 31-25 (55%) in divisional games this season and we’ve got six more on tap in Week 13.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The pair played in Week 10 and the Colts captured a 29-26 win over the Jaguars and the ‘over’ (48) was never in doubt. What was surprising about that outcome is that Jacksonville left points off the board and Indianapolis didn’t score in the second-half. The Colts have been on fire (5-0) lately but four of their wins have come at home and the road victory was at Oakland. Jacksonville hasn’t won since September and it seems like the club has packed it in and the offense is averaging 15.5 points per game during its current seven-game losing skid. There’s also a QB change for the Jaguars this week as Cody Kessler takes over for Blake Bortles. Prior to the first result a few weeks ago, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Panthers (7-4) and Buccaneers (8-3) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season but a possible vice versa handicap spot here. The pair combined for 70 points in Week 9 as Carolina stopped Tampa Bay 42-28 and the ‘over’ (55 ½) was never in doubt. Make a note that the last two games played in this series from Tampa Bay saw the ‘under’ easily cash (17-3, 17-16). Plus, as much as the Bucs defense (30.7 PPG) has been horrible at times, the home production (19.8 PPG) has been great from the unit.

Buffalo at Miami: First meeting between these AFC East clubs and the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six in this series. The Dolphins and Bills both enter with identical 6-5 ‘under’ records but Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill returned to the Dolphins this week but the offense remains banged up and they’re short-handed at receivers. Buffalo has scored 27 and 41 in its two road wins but just 5.3 PPG in four losses.

Kansas City at Oakland: The Kareem Hunt story took over the headlines on Friday and the Chiefs will now have to replace the running back. Was Hunt that good or just another guy? The Raiders can’t stop anybody from running the ball and the total or side hasn’t moved much since he was released. The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and even though KC head coach Andy Reid (19-4) has great numbers off the ‘bye’ week, the Chiefs were upset by the Giants 12-9 in this role last season as 10-point road favorites. Déjà vu here?

San Francisco at Seattle: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season between the pair and the low side is on a 7-3 run in the last 10 meetings. The 49ers are sticking with QB Nick Mullens, who was humbled at Tampa Bay last week. While the rookie is struggling, Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense (29.3 PPG) have heated up the last three weeks and that’s resulted in a 3-0 ‘over’ mark.

Washington at Philadelphia: (See Below)

Coast to Coast

If you’re new to ‘Total Talk’ and missed out on this section last week, you can check out the Week 12 installment for more details. In a nutshell, the six teams from the West Coast have watched the ‘over’ go 9-3 this season when they’ve played in the Eastern Time Zone or when a club from that region travels to them. Last week, the ‘over’ went 2-1.

San Francisco 9 at Tampa Bay 27 (Under 54 ½)
Oakland 17 Baltimore 34 (Over 42)
Seattle 30 Carolina 27 (Over 46 ½)

Two more games on tap this week with the Los Angeles franchises hitting the road.

L.A. Rams at Detroit
L.A. Chargers at Pittsburgh

I’ve tallied up all the results below and also noted possible situations to follow. We know nothing is 100 percent and I even faded the 49ers-Buccaneers ‘over’ last week in my Fearless Predictions, but it’s a nice angle to fade or follow. Either way, keep an eye on it the rest of the way.

Arizona (Under-Was)
Upcoming – (Week 14 vs. Det, Week 15 @ Atl)

Oakland (Over-Mia, Over-Cle, Over-Ind)
Upcoming – (Week 14 vs. Pitt, Week 15 @ Cin)

L.A. Chargers (Over-Buf, Over-Cle)
Upcoming – (Week 13 @ Pitt, Week 14 vs. Cin, Week 16 vs. Bal)

L.A. Rams
Upcoming – (Week 13 @ Det, Week 14 vs. Phi)

San Francisco (Over-Det, Over-NYG, Under-TB)
None remaining

Seattle (Under-Det, Over-Car)
None remaining

Bye Bye Rust

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in games where at least one team was playing off their ‘bye’ week. Make a note that we double counted the Patriots-Jets ticket since they played one another. New England did its job in the 27-13 win and New York actually came close to adding a late TD, which would’ve backdoored the Patriots and the ‘over’ too. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 19-11 in game with at least one team playing on rest and we’ve seen those teams average 24.7 PPG. Most would expect that number to go up this week with the two of the most explosive teams in the league playing with rest.

L.A. Rams at Detroit
Kansas City at Oakland

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 last week and that trend continues this past Thursday as the Saints-Cowboys cashed to the low side. Including the outcome from Dallas, the ‘over’ sits at 20-18 on the season through 38 primetime games.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (8-5), SNF (4-8), MNF (8-5)

L.A. Chargers at Pittsburgh: This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup is a great one and it certainly will have playoff implications for both teams. Both clubs have reliable gunslingers that can move the chains and that could have you leaning high. The Chargers have had success in their first two trips to the East Coast, scoring 31 and 38 points. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is averaging an eye-opening 35.4 PPG at Heinz Field this season. What could have you backing off the ‘over’ is the current form of both defensive units. The Chargers (14.4 PPG) have stepped up in their last seven games and the Steelers (19 PPG) have been just as good over the same span.

Washington at Philadelphia: This total was pushed up from 44 to 45 and my initial lean would’ve been to the low side. I’m well aware that the Redskins defense has fallen apart lately but Philadelphia has been a great ‘under’ bet (5-1) at home and this matchup is more or less a playoff elimination game. The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series but Washington had Kirk Cousins at QB in those games and he did well against the Eagles. Can you trust Colt McCoy to do the same? And as much hype as QB Carson Wentz has received, the Birds are averaging 18.6 PPG in their last five games.

Fearless Predictions

Thanksgiving Day was great for this section and last Sunday was just as good ($400) for us. Despite having ‘David’ as a last name, I’m not Jewish but hopefully we can keep the holiday streak going on Hanukkah this Sunday and add to the overall returns ($1305) on the season. For those celebrating, enjoy and to the rest – Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Baltimore-Atlanta 48 ½
Best Under: Chicago-N.Y. Giants 44 ½
Best Team Total: Under 22 Miami Dolphins

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 41 Baltimore-Atlanta
Over 48 L.A. Rams-Detroit
Under 63 Kansas City-Oakland

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com


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