Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
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Nobody wants a piece of the Jaguars. Bettors have had enough of this year's Jacksonville squad who were just one bad half of play calling away from playing in last season's Super Bowl. They come into Sunday's Week 13 action at home against the Colts riding a seven-game losing streak and have failed to cover any of them. It's part of the reason the Colts are 4-point road favorites and bettors at William Hill sports books have 94 percent of tickets written on the Colts.
Another part is that Jags' QB Blake Bortles was benched following the loss at Buffalo last week, another second-half mash-up with offensive play calling. Sure, it's all Bortles fault. Enter Cody Kessler as the starter who will make his first start since starting eight games during his rookie season in 2016. The Browns lost all eight of those games.
More negative ratings for the Jaguars come with RB Leonard Fournette getting suspended for his role in the sideline brawl at Buffalo last week which ended with a fan throwing a beer can at his head as he walked to the locker room. Fournette missed six games already this season and his absence was part of the reason the Jaguars could never sustain any kind of momentum.
Now the Jaguars are a full-fledged mess. Every week it's Murphy's law and the public is alert and ready to take advantage of their issues at the bet windows.
Beyond Jacksonville losing credibility, the main excitement from bettors siding with the Colts is Andrew Luck and the Colts' five-game win streak. Luck has 32 TD passes this season and has thrown at least three TD passes in eight straight games. The Colts are now 6-5 in the playoff hunt. They beat the Jaguars, 29-26, four weeks ago but pushed on the -3. Historically, the Colts have failed to cover their last seven against the Jags.
Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick has the Colts weighted as their riskiest parlay game in Sunday's action. The next most popular is the Rams (-10) at Detroit and then the Seahawks (-10) at home against the 49ers. That's a volatile 3-teamer at 6-to-1 odds quite a few people are carrying.
The 49ers have lost eight of their last nine while the Seahawks appear to be fine-tuned winning their last two and six of their last nine. Seattle's last three losses were to the Rams twice and the Chargers.
The Rams come off a bye and currently have the top seed in the NFC with just one loss, but their issue has been not being able to cover the large numbers. They've covered just once in their last eight. But the public likes their chances a lot more with the Rams than the lazy Lions who have lost four of their last five (1-4 ATS). Their only win over that span was due to a late failed gamble by Riverboat Ron three weeks that gave the Lions a 20-19 win against the Panthers.
Another team the public is loving lately has been the Broncos who play at Cincinnati. The Bengals will start QB Jeff Driskell with Andy Dalton placed on injured reserve (thumb). The Westgate Superbook opened the Broncos -3.5 on Monday and were pushed up to -5.5 on Wednesday where they remain. The Bengals have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six while Denver has gone 5-1 ATS in their last five. The Bengals defense allows 31 ppg. Ticket counts at William Hill have 90 percent of the wagers on the side taking the Broncos.
The Chiefs also have a high number of ticket counts for their game at Oakland, but not as much as usual because they high spread, now at -14, isn't attractive despite the Chiefs appearing to cover every week (8-2-1 ATS) and the Raiders failing to cover almost every week (1-6 ATS last seven games). The blow-back from RB Kareem Hunt being released was worth only 1 point, falling from -15 to -14 at the Superbook. The Chiefs only two losses this season were on the road, 54-51 at the Rams and 43-40 at New England.
The Patriots were briefly -7 Sunday night for this home game against the Vikings. After the Vikings beat the Packers on Sunday, the Superbook re-opened the game at -6 and there was plenty of money taking the points. They got as low as -5 and are currently -5.5. The Patriots have won all five home games (4-1 ATS) while averaging a 35-21 score. William Hill has the Patriots getting 62 percent of the wagers. The Vikings have some public respect.
McCormick says their top-three sharp wagers of the week have been the Cardinals (+13.5 at Green Bay), Bills (+3.5 at Miami), and the Buccaneers (+3 vs. Carolina).
The Packers have gone 4-0-1 at home and 0-6 on the road. Josh Rosen and the Cardinals have just two wins this season, both against the 49ers. Sharps took +14.5 and +14.
The Dolphins opened -6.5 Sunday at the Superbook and sharp action has been slowly chopping the number down to -3.5 on Thursday.
The Bucs come off a rare win last week while the Panthers have lost three straight and are 1-4 on the road. The Superbook opened -4 on Sunday night and now Carolina is -3 (-120).
With the popular Saints losing on Thursday night at Dallas there is little carryover risk into Sunday.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.