Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:00 AM
Total Talk - Week 14
Week 13 Recap
Bettors expecting points in the early action last week took it on the chin as the ‘under’ posted an 8-1 mark in the1:00 p.m. ET starts. Fortunately, if you weren’t capped out, the ‘over’ rallied with a 4-1 performance in the final five games and all of those results to the high side were clear-cut winners. Overall, the ‘under’ went 11-5 in Week 13 and for all those pundits that believe the NFL has turned into a glorified video game, the low side now sits at sits at 99-93 on the season.
|2018 Total Results - Game & Halves|
|2018 Results - Other|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 14 as of Saturday morning per [...].
Baltimore at Kansas City: 49 to 51
Atlanta at Green Bay: 48 to 51
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: 57 ½ to 54 ½
L.A. Rams at Chicago: 54 to 51
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 14 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Philadelphia at Dallas: Over 94%
Carolina at Cleveland: Over 92%
Atlanta at Green Bay: Over 88%
Indianapolis at Houston: Over 88%
Denver at San Francisco: Over 87%
As we approach the last four weeks of the regular season, it’s always good to keep an eye on seasonal tendencies. Whether you press or fade the trends is up to you but be aware of them this December.
Chicago, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay have been the best ‘over’ teams in the NFL, all producing an 8-4 (67%) mark to the high side. The Bengals (30.9 PPG) and Buccaneers (29.6 PPG) have helped that cause with their weak defensive units but the Bears (20.1 PPG) are ranked fourth in scoring defense. Chicago owns the fifth best scoring offense at 28.7 points per game and it’s also seen a lot of lower totals posted due to its solid defense.
Denver owns the best ‘under’ record at 9-3 and that includes a current streak to the low side of five in a row heading into Week 14.
The Eagles defeated the Patriots in a Super Bowl shootout last season but the pair both own 8-4 ‘under’ marks this season.
Carolina and Pittsburgh own the best ‘over’ marks at home (5-1) while Tampa Bay (6-0) and Kansas City (6-1) have been tremendous leans to the high side on the road.
Dallas and Miami haven’t travelled well offensively and both own 5-1 ‘under’ marks on the road. Meanwhile, Philadelphia continues to play solid defense at home and that’s contributed to a great ‘under’ (6-1) mark. Denver and Minnesota have both seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home.
The downward trend in these contests continued last week with a 4-2 record, which pushed the ‘under’ to 35-27 (56%) in divisional games this season.
Indianapolis at Houston: The Texans captured a 37-34 overtime win in Week 4 over the Colts in game that should’ve probably ended in a tie. Houston did blow a big lead and it was outscored 21-10 in the second-half by Indy. Either way, the ‘over’ (48 ½) was never in doubt. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series but Colts QB Andrew Luck only played in one of those games. In four games at Houston, Luck has gone 2-2 with a 3-1 ‘over’ mark and Indy has averaged 25 PPG. The Colts are coming off a rare NFL shutout loss (4 total this season) last week and its road numbers (22.8 PPG) haven’t been as glaring. Take out the 34 points they allowed to Indy in Week 4 and the Texans have surrendered 15.8 PPG in their last eight games.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Revenge spot for the Saints, who dropped a 48-40 decision to Tampa Bay in Week 1 at home and the ‘over’ (49 ½) hit by halftime. The total (54 ½) has been pushed up for the rematch but the Buccaneers defense (13 PPG) has been solid the last two weeks and much better at home (19.3 PPG) this season. New Orleans is coming off a 13-10 loss to Dallas, its worst offensive effort of the season. The Saints are on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and their defense (12.3 PPG) has been great during this span. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair from Raymond James Stadium and last year’s ‘over’ result in Week 17 was very fortunate to cash.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills stunned the Jets 41-10 on the road in Week 10 with their best output of the season and the ‘over’ (37 ½) slid in easily. The total for round two is in the same neighborhood (38 ½) and this seems like another toss-up with both squads rolling out their rookie quarterbacks. Even though the Jets put up 22 points last week, they had a defensive TD and five field goals. New York (300.4 YPG) and Buffalo (285.7 PPG) are ranked 30th and 31st in total offense, so expecting a crisp offensive game is likely a stretch.
New England at Miami: The Patriots ran all over the Dolphins for a 38-7 win in Week 4 at home and that lopsided margin helped the ‘under’ (50 ½) cash. A lot of pundits are pointing to New England’s struggles in Miami, in particular a 27-20 loss last season. Including that setback, the Patriots are 1-4 in their last five trips to South Florida. Miami enters this game on a 4-0 run to the ‘under’ and expecting a big effort from its offense (302.1 YPG) doesn’t seem likely due to a patched-up offensive line and banged up receiving group.
N.Y. Giants at Washington: The ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run in this series and has hit in seven of the past 10 encounters. The Redskins have been decimated by injuries all season and it’s tough to imagine the offense doing much on Sunday. The Giants (29.3 PPG) have shown some pop the last four weeks and that’s resulted in a 3-1 ‘over’ mark. Due to the injuries at QB, New York has been made a favorite. For what it’s worth, the Redskins are 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in that role this season and the defense (18.5 PPG) has carried them in those games.
Philadelphia at Dallas: Big NFC East game here and the Eagles will be looking to avenge a 27-20 loss to the Cowboys when the pair met in Week 10 from Philadelphia. That game was 13-3 at half before both teams combined for 31 points in the final half to cash the ’over’ (45 ½). The total opened (43 ½) a tad lower for this contest and scoring on the second-ranked Dallas defense (18.6 PPG) won’t be easy. The Eagles defense (26.4 PPG) hasn’t been as sharp on the road but that number drops to 21 PPG if you take out the woodshed treatment they got at New Orleans (48-7). Prior to the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run.
Under the Lights
The ‘under’ posted a 2-1 record last week and two of the results were never in doubt. The Titans-Jaguars barely went ‘over’ this past Thursday and including that result, the high side sits at 22-19 through 41 primetime games.
Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (9-5), SNF (5-8), MNF (8-6)
L.A. Rams at Chicago: Despite averaging 32.1 PPG on the road, the Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season. Against teams above .500, Los Angeles has surrendered 32 PPG. Chicago is averaging 31 PPG at home and that’s led to a 4-2 ‘over’ mark. This game is more important for the Rams, who are battling New Orleans for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Los Angeles is averaging 158.7 rushing yards per game on the road, which is ranked first. The temperatures will be low (30s) for this game by kickoff and I would expect the Rams to try to grind this one out and stay the course for the top seed. Chicago has played in three primetime games this season and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those contests but the ‘under’ could easily be 3-0 if it wasn’t for a few breaks.
Minnesota at Seattle: This is a tough contest to handicap and should be viewed as a possible playoff elimination game for both clubs. The Vikings defense (25.7 PPG) hasn’t been sharp on the road but outside of a game against the Jets, the other five teams were all formidable opponents. Seattle has been on a roll offensively in its last four games (32.3 PPG) and that’s led to a 4-0 ‘over’ mark. The conditions may not be pleasant for this game and it will be interesting to see if the Seahawks top-ranked rush offense (148.8 YPG) can move the ball against the Vikings run defense (99.2 YPG), ranked ninth.
The hot streak ($220) came to an end last Sunday but the bankroll remains positive ($1,085) on the season. We’ve only got 16 plays left in the regular season so let’s try to get back on track. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Carolina-Cleveland 47
Best Under: Philadelphia-Dallas 44
Best Team Total: Over Green Bay 27 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 42 ½ Indianapolis-Houston
Under 48 ½ N.Y. Giants-Washington
Under 58 ½ L.A. Rams-Chicago
Chris David can be reached at [email protected]