Dec 15, 2018
Total Talk - Week 15
Week 14 Recap
The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some late scoring surges. Bettors on the Ravens-Chiefs ‘under’ had a great chance to win but that was before Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes pulled off a ridiculous fourth down conversion.
While that was tough to watch for some, the Dallas-Philadelphia outcome was a punch to the stomach for bettors on the low side. The Cowboys led 6-0 at halftime and 9-6 after three quarters before the pair combined for 31 points in the fourth, 28 of those coming in the final 7:36. Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper has single handily now cashed Cowboy-Over combinations twice this season, the first coming on Thanksgiving.
We did some ‘over’ tickets get squeezed last week as well. Carolina and Cleveland were knotted 17-17 at halftime and only scored 12 second-half points. Also, the Bengals and Chargers had 29 combined points at halftime and they played to a 9-9 score in the final 30 minutes.
If you’ve been betting NFL on a regular basis, you’ve seen these decisions before and you’ll definitely see them again. Through 14 weeks, the ‘under’ sits at 108-100 on the season.
|2018 Total Results - Game & Halves|
|2018 Results - Other|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 15 as of Saturday morning per [...].
New Orleans at Carolina: 54 to 50 ½
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: 54 ½ to 52
Green Bay at Chicago: 46 ½ to 44 ½
New England at Pittsburgh: 52 ½ to 54
Miami at Minnesota: 43 to 44 ½
Detroit at Buffalo: 38 to 39 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 15 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
New England at Pittsburgh: Over 95%
Arizona at Atlanta: Over 89%
Green Bay at Chicago: Under 86%
Oakland at Cincinnati: Over 82%
Seattle at San Francisco: Under 76%
Keep an Eye On
-- There are six non-conference games on tap this weekend and the home team is favored in five of the six matchups. The ‘over’ has gone 27-21 (56%) in these contests this season.
-- There are only three games listed with totals in the fifties this week and that includes the “Game of the Week” from Western Pennsylvania between the Steelers and Patriots. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-24 road win by New England. The game (52 ½) should’ve at least gone to overtime but Big Ben tried to do too much late and was picked off in the endzone. The Steelers (34.5 PPG) have proven that they can score at Heinz Field this season and even though the Patriots put up 33 last week at Miami, the club is only averaging 23.3 PPG on the road. As Micah Roberts reported in his weekly Vegas Money Moves piece, bettors are riding New England heavily in this matchup and the ‘over’ is also getting attention. Make a note that the often-wagered Patriots-Over combo has only hit twice this season.
-- The Coast-to-Coast situation have watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 this season and we’ve got three matchups on tap this weekend – Oakland at Cincinnati, Arizona at Atlanta, Philadelphia at L.A. Rams. Of these games, the Raiders-Bengals ‘over’ (46) might have a shot based on defensive tendencies for both clubs. Plus, it’s a meaningless game for the pair and Oakland has allowed 28 and 34 points in its first two games played in the Eastern Time Zone.
-- The “Road Total System” is in play this week as New Orleans will be playing its third straight road game at Carolina on Monday. The trend calls for bettors to play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game. Unfortunately, it’s gone 0-2 this season with losers occurring in Week 6 (Ravens) and Week 7 (Rams). Including those results, the ‘over’ sits at 44-25 (64%) over the last 12 seasons with this situation.
The ‘over’ rebounded with a 5-2 mark in divisional games last week and the high side is on a 6-2 run when you include Thursday’s result between the Chargers and Chiefs. Including that result, the ‘under’ has gone 37-33 in divisional matchups this season.
Green Bay at Chicago: A lot of early money coming in on the ‘under’ in this game even though this has been an ‘over’ series with eight of the last 10 going to the high side. The pair met in Week 1 and Green Bay stole a 24-23 win over the Bears at home as an injured QB Aaron Rodgers rallied the Packers to 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Chicago defense collapsed in that game but it’s a much-improved unit right now and it’s been great at home (17.6 PPG). On the other side, Green Bay has been a mess defensively (28.8 PPG) on the road but my confidence on the Bears offense isn’t that high. A win for Chicago would clinch the division and eliminate Green Bay from the playoffs, so I’m buying the narrative of a conservative game-plan where QB Mitch Trubisky doesn’t make mistakes.
Seattle at San Francisco: The pair met in Week 13 and Seattle blasted San Francisco 43-16 as the ‘over’ (45) connected easily. The ‘under’ cashed in the two previous meetings and the low side is on a 3-1 run in the last four meetings from San Francisco. The 49ers have allowed 28 and 33 points at home in their first two divisional games and they only averaged 14 points per game, both losses. The Seahawks have averaged 25.3 PPG in away games this season, yet the ‘under’ holds a 4-3 mark.
Carolina at New Orleans: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and it could’ve been 3-0 if Tennessee didn’t explode against Jacksonville. We saw another rough beat this past Thursday as the Chargers rallied past the Chiefs and if Kansas City makes a late stop, that’s another ‘under’ ticket. Including that result, the ‘over’ sits at 23-21 in games played under the lights this season.
Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (10-5), SNF (5-9), MNF (8-7)
Philadelphia at L.A. Rams: Nick Foles is expected to start at QB for the Eagles as Carson Wentz sits with a lingering back issue. Foles started the first two games of the season and he didn’t look like the player that won the Super Bowl last season, with Philadelphia managing just 18 and 21 points. The Rams (32.7 PPG) still own the third best scoring offense in the league but the unit hasn’t looked as sharp lately and they were held to a season-low six points last Sunday at Chicago. This Eagles defense is very banged up and the unit is allowing 448 yards per game on the road, which is ranked 31st in the league. If there was an was an opportunity for the Rams offense to get right, it should happen on SNF. Last season, Philadelphia outlasted Los Angeles 43-35 at the Coliseum and the ‘over’ (47) was never in doubt.
New Orleans at Carolina: This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and they’ll also square off in Week 17 from New Orleans. The ‘over’ is on a 7-1 run in this series and the Saints have had their way with the Panthers, winning three straight and four of the last five while averaging 31.4 PPG during this span. Carolina is a mess right now, losers in five straight games. To be fair, four of the games were on the road and the last four setbacks came by one score. At home, Carolina has averaged 30.8 PPG this season and that’s led to a 5-1 ‘over’ mark. As noted above, the Saints fit the “Road Total System” angle and visitors have averaged 30 PPG in those contests.
Unfortunately, last week’s quartet of plays ($190) featured not one but two of the ‘bad beats’ mentioned above last week and that kept us in the red. I actually had a chance to juice out but the teaser collapsed with the Giants-Redskins outburst. Only three weeks left in the regular season and hopefully I can keep the bankroll up ($865) with the final 12 plays of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Oakland-Cincinnati 46
Best Under: Detroit-Buffalo 39 ½
Best Team Total: Over Tampa Bay 19 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over Arizona-Atlanta 36 ½
Under Washington-Jacksonville 44
Over New England-Pittsburgh 46 ½
Chris David can be reached at [email protected]