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NFL

MNF – Saints at Panthers

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
LAST WEEK

The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) rebounded from a loss in Week 13 at Dallas that snapped a 10-game winning streak to knock off the Buccaneers, 28-14 to cash as 10-point road favorites. Not only did New Orleans avenge a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay in which it allowed 48 points, but the Saints shut out the Buccaneers in the second half, 25-0 to overcome a 14-3 halftime deficit.

Drew Brees spearheaded the rally behind a touchdown pass and a touchdown run, while the Saints’ defense limited the Bucs to under 300 yards after allowing 529 yards in the first matchup in Week 1. The Saints gave up 17 points or less for the fifth consecutive week, while Brees busted the 200-yard passing mark (barely with 201) for the first time in three games. With the victory, the Saints improved to 6-1 SU/ATS away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Panthers (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) have gone through a free-fall at the absolute worst time. Carolina suffered its fifth consecutive loss in last Sunday’s 26-20 setback at Cleveland as short favorites. The schedule-makers weren’t kind to Carolina, who was playing its fourth road game in five weeks, but the Panthers couldn’t hold onto a pair of touchdown leads in the first half as well as a three-point advantage heading into the fourth quarter.

Cam Newton failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 1 against Dallas, as the Panthers’ quarterback totaled 265 yards through the air and an interception. The Panthers trailed by six in the final minutes and reached the three-yard line, but Carolina came up short on three plays to take the lead, including a pair of incomplete passes by Newton. Carolina was limited to 21 points or fewer for the fourth time during this skid, as the Panthers topped the 31-point mark in four of six wins this season.

ROAD IS WHERE THE HEART IS

It’s well-known how much of a home-field advantage the Saints own, but the road numbers for New Orleans are staggering. Sean Payton’s squad has won six of seven on the highway, including an impressive 4-1 SU/ATS mark in the road favorite role. It’s been a nice bounce-back for New Orleans, who closed out last season with four straight away defeats and a 1-3 ATS record. The UNDER has cashed in five of seven road games, while allowing 20 points or less five times.

BACK TO THE BANK

Carolina hasn’t been able to put things together on the road at 1-6 this season. But, the Panthers are a different team (like everyone else) playing at home as Ron Rivera’s team owns a 5-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium. The lone home defeat came in their last home appearance back in Week 12 against Seattle in a 30-27 setback in the final seconds. Prior to that loss, Carolina strung together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in Charlotte, which included four games that eclipsed the OVER.

TOTAL TALK

The Saints are currently on a four-game UNDER streak, as New Orleans is seeing a total below 50 for the first time since Week 7 at Baltimore (49). The Panthers have finished UNDER the total three times in the last four contests, but have gone OVER the total in five straight home games.

TRIPLE REVENGE

Not only does Carolina want to end its drought, but the Panthers look to avenge three losses to their division rivals from last season. New Orleans dominated Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, 34-13 as five-point underdogs, highlighted by three interceptions of Newton. The Saints took care of the Panthers at the Superdome in early December, 31-21 to cash as six-point favorites for the season sweep.

What about the third matchup? The two teams hooked up in the Big Easy for an NFC Wild Card showdown that looked to be a blowout as New Orleans led Carolina, 21-6. The Panthers crept back to make it 24-19 as 6 ½-point underdogs, but Alvin Kamara’s two-yard touchdown run with five minutes remaining gave the Saints back a 12-point advantage. However, the Panthers marched right down the field and Christian McCaffrey capped off the drive with a 56-yard touchdown reception from Newton to pick up the cover in a 31-26 defeat.

The Saints are favored at Carolina for the first time since 2014 when New Orleans pulled off a 28-10 rout as three-point chalk. New Orleans has covered in each of its past four visits to Bank of America Stadium, while the two teams have split those matchups.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

New Orleans is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season, as the Saints routed the Redskins, 43-19 in Week 5 at home. However, the Saints own a 2-4 record in their last six Monday night contests since 2014 with the last road win coming at Chicago in December 2014 as a short favorite. The Panthers have won three of their last four Monday night games since 2015, while making their first appearance in 2018.

GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Drew Brees
OVER 259 ½ (-110)
UNDER 259 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees
OVER 2 (-130)
UNDER 2 (+110)

Will Michael Thomas score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125

Total Completions – Cam Newton
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Cam Newton
OVER 1 ½ (-130)
UNDER 1 ½ (+110)

Total Rushing + Receiving Yards – Christian McCaffrey
OVER 112 ½ (-110)
UNDER 112 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Saints opened up as 6 ½-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has slightly dropped to 6 at many sports books. The total opened at 52, but has quickly fallen to 49 ½ at many locales, as this is the second-highest total Carolina has seen at home this season (55 ½ vs. Tampa Bay in Week 9).

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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