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Dec 18, 2018

Betting Recap - Week 15

Be sure to follow VegasInsider.com on Twitter @TwitVI for the latest NFL Football betting updates and trends. Joe Williams can be followed on Twitter at JoeWilliamsVI

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-6
Against the Spread 6-9-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 8-7-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-9-1
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 142-79-2
Against the Spread 99-116-8
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 136-85-2
Against the Spread 111-104-8
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 104-118-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+13.5, ML +600) at Rams, 30-23
Redskins (+7, ML +270) at Jaguars, 16-13
49ers (+4, ML +180) vs. Seahawks, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Falcons (-9) vs. Cardinals, 40-14
Vikings (-7.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-17
Bears (-5.5) vs. Packers, 24-17

Fly Eagles Fly

-- The Philadelphia Eagles hit the road to battle the Los Angeles Rams, and it was announced this week that QB Carson Wentz (back) is dealing with a stress fracture which requires three months of recovery. Enter QB Nick Foles, and it feels like Dec. 2017 all over again. The Eagles pulled the upset as nearly a two-touchdown underdog, posting a 30-23 win with QB Jared Goff looking like the backup, committing an egregious error late in the contest with one of the worst interceptions you'll ever see. The Eagles pounced on the miscue, took a 30-13 and hung on for the win to keep their playoff hopes very much alive.

Mining Home Covers

-- The San Francisco 49ers gained another home win, earning revenge on the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco fell 43-16 just two weeks ago in Seattle, and they entered the game just 1-3 ATS over the past four outings. However, the 49ers dumped the Denver Broncos last week by a 20-14 home win and cover as three-point 'dogs, and they're a respectable 3-1 SU/ATS in the past four home contests. They'll try and wave their magic wand in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board (55) was the New England Patriots-Pittsburgh Steelers, but it never even came close. The first quarter had a total of 14 points, but it kept going downhill from there. The Steelers managed the only points of the second quarter, a touchdown, and the third and fourth quarters each only featured one lone field goal. The second- and third-highest totals on the board, the Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5) and Philadelphia Eagles-Los Angeles Rams (52.5) each hit over the mark.

-- The lowest totals on the board were the Washington Redskins-Jacksonville Jaguars (36.5) and Detroit Lions-Buffalo Bills (39.5), and both games ended up going well 'under'. The third-lowest game, the Tennessee Titans-New York Giants (42), actually ended up going well under as well, 17-0.

-- The 'over/under' went 2-2 this week across the four primetime outings, with the Monday nighter between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers (50) easily hitting the 'under'. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 24-23 (51.1%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Dolphins RB Frank Gore (ankle) left Sunday's game in Minnesota due to a foot sprain, although X-rays were negative.

-- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) left Sunday's game on the final drive against the Seattle Seahawks.

-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) left Sunday's game on the road against Chicago and he was unable to return. WR Randall Cobb (ankle) left Sunday's game to be evaluated for concussion.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns and Bengals do battle in Cleveland, as Cincinnati looks for revenge after a 35-20 loss at home back on Nov. 25. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in the past seven road games and 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Browns are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home outings, but they're just 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 inside the division. Cincinnati has covered four in a row at Cleveland, and the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium.

-- The Bills travel to Foxboro to battle the Patriots, who have lost back-to-back games in December for the first time since 2002. Buffalo lost a Monday nighter to New England back on Oct. 29 in western New York by a 25-6 score, as the Patriots were out of sync, but still covered a 13 1/2-point number. Buffalo is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall, and 4-10 ATS in the past 14 inside the division. New England is 5-1 ATS in the past six inside the division, and they're 37-15-2 ATS in the past 54 home games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 in this series.

-- The Falcons hit the road for Carolina, looking to stick a final nail in the coffin of the Panthers. Atlanta heads into the game 1-5 ATS in the past six overall, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven on the road. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings in Carolina, with the Falcons 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series. The home team has connected in 16 of the past 21 meetings, too. The 'under' is 8-2-1 over the past 11 meetings, while going 16-5-2 in the past 23 meetings at Bank of America Stadium.

-- The Rams are skidding a little, losers of two straight. A trip to the desert to meet the Cardinals should be the perfect medicine. L.A. is 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six against NFC opponents. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, and they're 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. The favorite has cashed in four in a row in this series, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings nad the road team is 6-2 ATS across the past eight in the series.

-- The Broncos and Raiders will tangle on Monday night. Denver heads in 4-1 ATS in the past five road outings, but they're just 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 games overall. They're also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC West. Oakland has posted a 1-4 ATS mark in the past five overall, and they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against AFC foes. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to the Black Hole, and 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 in this series. The favorite is also 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings.

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