Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:58 AM
Win Total Bets - Colts
12 Weeks of 2019 NFL Futures Predictions
We are now officially 11 weeks away from the first NFL preseason game kicking off, and as I said in last week's piece, the NFL season will be here before you know it. Off-season workouts will begin in a few weeks, and from there it's training camps starting in July. But we've still got plenty of futures to work our way through in the coming weeks, as last week was just the tip of the iceberg with the AFC's Season Win Total going 'over' in Baltimore.
This week we are staying in relatively the same ballpark, as it's the AFC that gets the attention again, albeit looking at a couple of teams that should fall short of their season win total mark.
NFL Season Win Total #2:
Indianapolis Colts Under 9.5 wins (+130)
The Colts couldn't have been much happier with what they got from a healthy Andrew Luck last year, as they snuck in the playoffs with a Wildcard berth, and turned that into a playoff win, before bowing out to Kansas City in the divisional round. After year(s) of wondering if Luck would ever find his former form, an upgraded offensive line helped Luck do just that.
Indy grabbed that final playoff spot with a 10-6 SU record, after starting the year 1-5 SU, and while rattling off nine of the final 10 was great, I'm not sure you can expect that type of streaky variance – either way – with the Colts this year. Remember, Indy's organization weren't the only ones in the NFL who questioned whether or not Luck would have 'it' again, as Indy's opponents were probably a little guilty of underestimating he and the Colts, especially after the 1-5 start.
That won't be the case this year, and neither will there be a soft schedule for the Colts to benefit from. After that 1-5 SU start, the Colts had a six-game stretch where they played Buffalo, Oakland, Jacksonville (twice), Tennessee, and Miami. Indy went 5-1 SU in that mid-season run to save their season, but those teams also finished the year a combined 31-49 for the year, with only Tennessee (9-7) having a winning record.
The 2019 slate for the Colts brings a much tougher journey from start to finish, as they've got to deal with the entire AFC West – who's already pretty good with Kansas City and the Chargers on the top, and Denver and Oakland should be improved – the entire NFC South, another deep, talented, and overall improved division from top to bottom, and then the Steelers and Dolphins along with their own division. You know Jacksonville still has that ferocious defense still suiting up for them, and Houston and Tennessee aren't going anywhere.
From the schedule alone, it's not hard to figure that the Colts could have six losses before we even get to Thanksgiving, and after that it's games with the Titans, Bucs, Saints, Panthers, and Jaguars left. Tough to see them finishing a second straight year by running the table in their last 4+ games. Not with that schedule.
Finally, the Colts also didn't do any major upgrades on either side of the ball really to make you believe they are nothing more then a team that will legitimately be fighting for an 8-8 SU season, and maybe a few breaks go their way again to get to double-digits again. Again, that's if Luck stays healthy – which should still linger as a concern – and the returning cast continue an upward trend. Every year is different in the NFL, and the Colts continuing to improve is far from a given too.
So with the plus-money price tag on the low side of things, I've got no problem taking a stance on figuring that maybe some of those bounces don't go the Colts way this season, and a much tougher schedule knocks them back a few steps.
It was this basic Colts team that was lined in the seven-win range going into last year with the Luck health concerns, and after a highly variant hot stretch, largely against very weak competition, we are expecting them to get three more wins at a heavily juiced price? Just not going to happen.
Win Total Predictions
1) Baltimore Ravens