Win Total Bets – Falcons

12 Weeks of 2019 NFL Futures Predictions

Another week has passed which means we are just nine weeks away from the 2019 NFL preseason getting going, and from there, the rest of the 2019 calendar year gets awfully hectic from a sports betting perspective. What that also means is that three weeks of preview are now fully in the rearview mirror with AFC overs, unders, and NFC overs already covered (links at the bottom), and the win total portion of these weekly previews is coming to an end with a look at some potential good NFC 'unders' for this year.

And while going 'under' the win total of 6 for the New York Giants and their dysfunctional franchise, or as I like to call them, the LA Lakers of the NFL, was the last to hit the chopping block for this piece, that is a play that that should be considered. But the -135 price on a flat '6' number is what ultimately put it on the chopping block, so do with that information what you will. But fading the Giants this year will likely be a popular option each and every week come the fall, so you'd better not be afraid to to potentially step out ahead of the market in that regard.

For this week's play, there is just one team that ended up making the cut as one that should struggle in 2019, as it's a combination of a tough schedule, some personnel losses, a lofty number, and potentially running into some bad luck along the way that landed this team on this side of the equation.

NFL Season Win Total #5:

Atlanta Falcons Under 9 wins (-130)

The New York Giants may have narrowly missed the card with a flat total juiced to the 'under', but that's not the case with Atlanta, as there number is three notches higher and the schedule they've got could put them through the grinder each and every week. Before we get to that though, this Falcons team has guys like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones who are now both getting up their in age, and with RB Tevin Coleman moving on, the depth offensively takes a hit as well.

But who knows how healthy Julio Jones stays all season as injuries have been the secondary story to his career behind his amazing production when healthy, and if Ryan ends up going down and missing significant time, the Falcons are then left with the INT-machine Matt Schaub at the wheel. In a NFC South division that already boasts two tough rivals in the Saints and Panthers, and a Bucs team that knows they've got a one-year window to win before massive regime changes are coming, asking Atlanta to get to double digit wins a year after they didn't even get to the .500 mark appears to be a bit much.

And then there is the schedule the Falcons have, which really grants them very few reprieve's if any, and one that's loaded with tough game after tough game as it is.

Just like every other NFC South team this year, Atlanta's got dates with foes from the AFC South (Indianapolis, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville) and NFC West (LA Rams, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona) on their plate, and do you really like how the Falcons match up with any of those teams?

Most of those AFC South foes will bring a nasty defense into town looking to light up Matt Ryan and company, as all four of those teams expect to find themselves competing for a playoff spot at worse in the AFC.

Then, three of those NFC West teams (LA Rams, Seattle, San Francisco) won't be an easy bargain by any means, and while it may seem like the Falcons catch a break in hosting arguably the better two of them – LA and Seattle – that also means that they've got to give the home field advantage up to the 49ers and Cardinals, and young teams that expect to be up-and-coming like they both are thrive in a home underdog type of role. And unless the Falcons defense makes some big improvements this fall, it might not matter how good they look offensively, those three NFC West teams that are expected to be good could easily win a shootout type effort against them as well.

Oh, and by the way, their other two non-division NFC opponents are the Vikings and Eagles to open up the year. Two teams that faced off against one another in the NFC Championship game back in January of 2018. But where this schedule will end up killing this Falcons team is in their divisional slate and how it's set up.

Atlanta's Bye Week is in Week 9, and prior to that they do have two consecutive home games, albeit against the Rams and Seahawks leading into the break. Chances are a split would be considered a positive result there, depending on how things play out, but post-bye, it goes @ New Orleans, @ Carolina, vs Tampa Bay, vs New Orleans (on a short week for Thanksgiving), vs Carolina, before closing the season out with SF, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay again.

That's FIVE straight weeks of divisional matchups for the Falcons, with a short week thrown in there to boot, and it's that stretch of games that will probably effectively end Atlanta's season. The physical and mental strain those five weeks will have on the Falcons will be brutal to deal with – especially if everyone in the NFC South is highly competitive – and it's a scheduling quirk that Atlanta definitely got a very raw deal on. The Saints do have four straight contests vs division foes that have their two games with Atlanta bookending that stretch, but without question, Atlanta’s got the worst deal there.

So never mind nine wins, Atlanta's going to have a tough time getting to eight victories this year and that's if they stay completely healthy and get a few bounces along the way. And another rough campaign is probably the beginning of the end for Dan Quinn as the head man of this football team, as that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl will be nothing but a distant memory and the exact moment that many will point back to as the beginning of a disastrous run for the Falcons.

Win Total Predictions

1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers