TNF – Titans at Jaguars


One week after the Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) blew out the Browns to open the season, Tennessee dropped its first game of 2019 in a 19-17 setback to Indianapolis. The Titans were flipped from a 5 ½-point road underdog at Cleveland to a three-point home favorite against the Colts. Tennessee failed to start 2-0 for the 11th straight season, while losing in Week 2 for the first time since 2015.

The Titans have allowed only 32 points in two games, which ranks sixth in the NFL, while yielding 288 yards to the Colts. However, Tennessee trailed at halftime, 13-7 before scoring 10 consecutive points to take a 17-13 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Jacoby Brissett hit T.Y. Hilton on a four-yard touchdown strike to put the Colts ahead with under five minutes remaining to improve to 14-2 in the last 16 matchups with the Titans.

Marcus Mariota threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the season-opening blowout of the Browns, but racked up only 154 yards against Indianapolis. Derrick Henry eclipsed the 80-yard mark for the second consecutive week and reached the end zone for the second time in 2019, but not one Tennessee receiver compiled more than 39 yards receiving.

The Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) faced their second opponent last week that is coming off a division title in 2018, but had an excellent opportunity to win. After trailing 13-3 in the fourth quarter at Houston, Jacksonville kicked a field goal then got within one point on rookie Gardner Minshew’s touchdown pass to D.J. Chark, Jr. in the final minute. The Jaguars elected to go for the two-point conversion and the win, but running back Leonard Fournette was stuffed at the goal-line and Jacksonville lost, 13-12.

Jacksonville managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the offense didn’t bust the 300-yard mark, while Minshew threw for 213 yards in his first professional start in place of the injured Nick Foles. Minshew actually rushed for more yards (56) than Fournette (47) on less attempts, while the Jaguars’ defense allowed one touchdown after yielding 40 points to Kansas City in Week 1.

The big drama surrounding the Jaguars has been the recent trade demand of Pro-Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The former Florida State standout wants out of Jacksonville in his fourth season with the Jaguars following a recent dustup with head coach Doug Marrone during the Houston loss. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start for the fifth time in eight seasons, but no team in the AFC South owns a 2-0 record.


Only two weeks into the season and three of the four teams in the division have posted 1-1 records. The Colts, Titans, and Texans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. However, Jacksonville is the only team in this group to play two playoff teams from last season in its first two games. The schedule eases up the next six weeks as the Jaguars will face Denver and Carolina on the road (both winless through two weeks), host New Orleans without Drew Brees, travel to Cincinnati, and welcome in the Jets in Week 8 before three straight divisional matchups.

Tennessee plays seven straight non-division opponents after Thursday as the Titans head to Atlanta in Week 4 before hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Titans face a pair of AFC West foes in Week 6 (Denver) and Week 7 (L.A. Chargers) before taking on the Buccaneers at home in Week 8 and at Carolina in Week 9.


The Titans were favored on the road three times in 2018, as Tennessee put together a 1-2 SU/ATS record in those games. Tennessee lost at Miami and Buffalo, but the Titans cruised past the Giants in Week 15 with a 17-0 shutout of 2 ½-point favorites.

Since upsetting New England in Week 2 last season, the Jaguars own a 2-6 record in their last eight home contests (which includes a 24-18 defeat in London to the Eagles), while Jacksonville is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 opportunities in the underdog role.


Tennessee swept Jacksonville last season to extend its winning streak in the series to four games since 2017. The Titans limited the Jaguars to a total of 15 points in the two victories, starting with a 9-6 triumph as 10-point underdogs at TIAA Bank Field in Week 3. Neither team reached the end zone as Ryan Succop knocked down three field goals in the victory for Tennessee, while Mariota and Henry combined for 108 yards rushing.

The Titans cruised to a 30-9 blowout of the Jaguars at Nissan Stadium in December to easily cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Henry had his breakout game as a pro as the Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns, which included a 99-yard scamper in the second quarter. Jacksonville last beat Tennessee, 38-17 in Week 16 of the 2016 season as four-point home underdogs.


Chris David of, a weekly guest on the Bet and Collect Podcast, offered up his total notes for this particular matchup and he touches on the early trend that we’ve seen in primetime spots this season.

He explained, “Bettors playing the ‘under’ blindly in the night games have watched their bankroll grow with the low side going 6-1 through seven games. And the lone ‘over’ ticket in the Saints-Texans matchup was helped with 41 points in the second-half and 13 of those came in the final minute.”

For savvy bettors keeping track of halftime wagers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-0 in the night games. In the second-half of those same contests, we’ve seen more points but the ‘under’ still holds a 4-3 mark.

Even though this total is sitting in the high thirties, David noted that this series has leaned to the ‘over’ recently and an offensive outburst is possible.

“The high side has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, which includes a split last season,” David noted. “Digging deeper, I looked at Mariota’s numbers versus the Jaguars in his career and he owns a 6-2 record in games that he’s started or played in. What’s eye-opening about those eight games is that every season, Mariota and the Titans have been hit or miss offensively. The team posted 30 and 9 in 2018 versus the Jaguars, 37 and 15 in 2017 before scoring 36 and 17 in 2016." 

"Going back to his rookie year, the Titans scores 13 and 42. What offense shows up this week is obviously uncertain but this angle should be kept in your betting memory bank when the pair meet later in the season.”

Jacksonville will meet Tennessee in Week 12 at Nissan Stadium from Nashville.

Another notable trend to watch for Thursday is that Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight night games going back to the 2016 season while Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in primetime spots during the same span.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week on this matchup as he looks how Jacksonville can exploit Tennessee’s defense, “As expected, Tennessee has good defensive numbers allowing 5.0 yards per play (9th in the NFL), but surprisingly the Titans have struggled against the run by giving up 5.0 yards per rush to offset very strong pass defense numbers. Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass through two weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) while performing better against the run. Having to play Kansas City in Week 1 certainly weighs on the numbers for the Jaguars who could still project as one of the better defensive teams in the AFC.”

From Jacksonville’s standpoint with Minshew making his second start, Nelson points out his numbers haven’t been bad, but the Jags need to score more, “Minshew has been more than adequate with nearly 78 percent completions and 8.4 yards per attempt and just one interception while also offering some mobility but ultimately the Jaguars have only scored 38 points in two games. Last season, six of the team’s 11 losses came by six or fewer points and the Jaguars had two SU wins vs. playoff teams at home.”


After the Chiefs covered both the first and second halves in the season opener, the Jaguars rebounded by covering each half in the Texans’ loss. The Titans have covered in three of four halves this season with first and second half wins at Cleveland, while cashing in the second half against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Tennessee has hit the ‘under’ in three of four halves, with the lone ‘over’ cashing in the second half of the Cleveland game. Jacksonville saw the ‘over’ cash in each half of the Kansas City loss, but the ‘under’ connected in both halves of the Houston defeat.

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Over 195 ½ (-110)
Under 195 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Over 1 ½ (+170)
Under 1 ½ (-200)

Will Marcus Mariota (TEN) Throw an Interception?
Yes -110
No -110

Total Rushing Yards – Derrick Henry (TEN)
Over 75 ½ (-110)
Under 75 ½ (-110)

Total Completions – Gardner Minshew (JAX)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Gardner Minshew (JAX)
Over 1 ½ (+170)
Under 1 ½ (-200)

Total Rushing Yards – Leonard Fournette (JAX)
Over 67 ½ (-110)
Under 67 ½ (-110)


When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite against the Titans. Fast-forward to now and Tennessee is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 39, as the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven primetime games this season.

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