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Sep 27, 2019

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners from Micah Roberts on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night. 
 
“We had a great night with the Eagles winning,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It was one of our better games of the year.”
 
The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.
 
Let’s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.
 
“It’s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,” DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. “We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn’t a wise guy. 
 
The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they’ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.

As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week. 
 
“We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,” DiTomasso said.
 
People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.
 
Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it’s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.
 
The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won’t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.

Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.
 
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).
 
“The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,” DiTomasso said.
 
The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it’s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.
 
“The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,” DiTomasso said. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.”
 
Caesars’ Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.
 
The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.
 
“The public has turned quickly on the Browns,” DiTomasso said. “That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.”
 
The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number. 

As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

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