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NFL

Oct 09, 2019

TNF - Giants at Patriots

Bet and Collect Podcast


LAST WEEK

The Giants (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) saw their two-game winning streak come to a screeching halt in Sunday’s 28-10 home setback to the Vikings as 5 ½-point underdogs. New York won the first two starts made by rookie quarterback Daniel Jones against Tampa Bay and Washington, but the former Duke standout was limited to 182 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception.

The Vikings outgained the Giants from a yardage standpoint, 490-211, which is in stark contrast to the week before in which New York outgained Washington, 389-176 in the yardage category. Obviously, Minnesota was a huge step up from Washington in competition, but the Giants never led against the Vikings as the closest they came was trailing 10-7 in the second quarter before getting outscored 18-7 the rest of the way.

New York continues to play without running back Saquon Barkley, who missed his second consecutive game with a high ankle sprain. Barkley is likely out one again on Thursday night, as his presence his sorely missed after New York’s running game was limited to 64 yards on 20 carries against Minnesota. The Giants cashed the ‘under’ at home for the third time in three tries this season, while dropping to 5-14 in the past 19 games at Met Life Stadium dating back to 2017.

The Patriots (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) are the only undefeated team left in the AFC after blowing out the Redskins, 33-7 to cash as 15 ½-point road favorites. New England improved to 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, while limiting its fifth straight opponent to 14 points or fewer. The Patriots’ defense continues to excel by giving up a grand total of two offensive touchdowns, as Steven Sims, Jr. broke off a 65-yard touchdown run for Washington before New England scored 33 unanswered points.

Tom Brady rebounded from a tough performance in Week 4 against Buffalo to torch Washington’s porous defense for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman hauled in eight receptions for 110 yards and a score. Running back Sony Michel put together his best game of the season by compiling 91 yards on 16 carries, including his third touchdown of 2019.

New England has jumped out to a 3-0 road record this season, which is a much better start than in its Super Bowl winning campaign of 2018. The Patriots didn’t record their third road victory last season until Week 12 against the Jets, as New England has started 3-0 away from Gillette Stadium for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Patriots are riding an 18-game winning streak at Gillette Stadium dating back to 2017 with the last loss in Foxboro coming to the Panthers in Week 4 of that season. New England has posted a 14-4 ATS record during this span, which includes a 6-2 ATS mark when laying double-digits at home. One of those two losses when listed as a favorite of 10 points or more came in Week 3 against the Jets as 20 ½-point chalk in a 30-14 victory.

The Giants have fared well on the road against the number since Week 3 of 2018 by covering in eight of the last nine opportunities. The only ATS loss in this span came in the season opener to Dallas, while the Giants cashed in their previous away contest at Tampa Bay in Week 3 in the 32-31 comeback victory. The last time the Giants won outright as a double-digit road underdog came in 2017 as 13 ½-point ‘dogs in a 23-10 upset of Denver.

SERIES HISTORY

Not many people remember the recent regular season meetings between the Patriots and Giants, only the two Super Bowl matchups won by New York. The most memorable game played by these two teams came in Super Bowl XLII when the Giants stunned the undefeated Patriots, 17-14 as 12 ½-point underdogs. New York turned the trick again four years later in Super Bowl XLVI by rallying from a 17-9 deficit to knock off New England, 21-17 as three-point ‘dogs.

The Giants have covered the last five meetings in this series dating back to 2007, when they coincidentally hooked up in the final regular season game before doing battle in the Super Bowl. New England edged New York, 27-26 as seven-point road favorites in 2015 at Met Life Stadium in the most recent matchup. The Pats erased a 20-10 deficit, capped off by a Stephen Gostkowski 54-yard field goal with one second remaining, as Brady threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over’ has cashed in back-to-back weeks on Thursday but the oddsmakers aren’t expecting many points for this matchup. Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides his thoughts and lean on this week’s total.

“Based on what we’ve seen from the Patriots and their defense, it’s hard to imagine the Giants doing much offensively in this spot. New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 and it should be 5-0 if it wasn’t for two defensive scores allowed in their 30-14 home win over Jets in Week 3. The Giants did receive a bit of a spark from rookie Jones in his first two appearances but he was humbled last Sunday at home versus the Vikings,” said David.

“Expecting Jones and the Giants offense to improve on a short week in a hostile environment seems like a reach, plus New York is still banged-up with key injuries. The team total on New York is listed at 13 ½ and knowing New England hasn’t allowed an offense to eclipse that number in five games, going ‘under’ on the Giants would be my lean here.”

Laying double digits will be a common theme for New England this season and the club has developed a strong ‘under’ trend in these angles. Going back to last season, the Patriots are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run when listed as a double-digit favorite and that includes a 2-1 mark this season. Make a note that the ‘under’ is 10-0 in its last 10 road games when laying 10-plus points and we’ll likely see two spots left this season at the Jets and Bengals.

STARTING FAST (AND SLOW)

The Patriots have dominated defensively this season by allowing only two offensive touchdowns (both rushing), but New England has jumped out quickly by posting a 4-1 ATS record on first half bets. The only loss came to Washington as the Patriots led the Redskins, 12-7 at halftime laying 10 points. Meanwhile, the Giants have slumped to a 1-4 ATS mark in the first half this season, while trailing by double-digits in all four of those defeats. Coincidentally the biggest deficit the Giants have fallen into at halftime this season (18 points at Tampa Bay), New York actually came back to win in Jones’ first start.

THURSDAY NIGHT DOG SPECIAL

The underdogs have ruled on Thursdays this season in the NFL by putting together a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark. The only favorite to win a Thursday contest in 2019 was the Seahawks last week in a slim 30-29 victory after the Rams missed the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Los Angeles cashed as 1 ½-point underdogs to mark the fifth consecutive cover by ‘dogs in Thursday night affairs, as the biggest ‘dog to cover was Tampa Bay in Week 2 getting 6 ½ points in a 20-14 triumph at Carolina.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week looking at the easy road so far for New England, “The schedule rates as the weakest in the league facing teams that are a combined 5-18 and four of those wins come from the Bills. New England won 16-10 in Buffalo, but in many ways they did not look like the superior team in that contest, out-gained 375-224, but getting a 4-1 turnover edge and a touchdown on a blocked punt.”

“The Patriots face losing teams the next three weeks before a Week 9 game at Baltimore and the league may not find out how good the Patriots actually are until late in the season when they draw Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, and Kansas City in succession,” Nelson notes.

The Giants could make history from a ‘dog standpoint in primetime according to Nelson, “This week’s game could feature the largest underdog spread in Thursday NFL history with +16 for the Rams at Seattle in 2016 the highest instance in our data. Since 1985, seven Thursday NFL teams have been dogged by 14 or more points and they have gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.”

New England owns great marks on Thursday and as a two-touchdown favorite or more under Bill Belichick, “Since taking over the Patriots in 2000, Belichick is 12-3 SU and 8-5-2 ATS on Thursdays including winning 38-24 at -10 hosting the Colts last season. New England is just 4-4-2 ATS at home on Thursdays in that span, however. The Patriots are 28-0 SU and 17-11 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points under Belichick, including going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances,” Nelson says.

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 20 ½ (-110)
Under 20 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Daniel Jones (NYG)
Over 1 ½ (+190)
Under 1 ½ (-240)

Will the Giants have a rushing touchdown?
Yes +180
No -220

Will the Giants ever have the lead?
Yes +220
No -270

Total Gross Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 265 ½ (-110)
Under 265 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2 (-110)
Under 2 (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – Sony Michel (NE)
Over 74 ½ (-110)
Under 74 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Josh Gordon (NE)
Over 59 ½ (-110)
Under 59 ½ (-110)

Will Julian Edelman (NE) score a touchdown?
Yes +120
No -140

LINE MOVEMENT/WEATHER

The weather will not be pretty on Thursday night with rain in the forecast all day and night. Temperatures are in the low 50’s and there will be a steady wind at 18 miles per hour at kickoff.

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Patriots were listed as an 11-point favorite against the Giants. Fast-forward to now and New England is listed as a 17-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 41 ½, from 44 ½ due to impending rain hitting the area.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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