Betting Recap – Week 6

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets (+7, ML +280) vs. Cowboys, 24-22
Steelers (+6, ML +230) at Chargers, 24-17
Texans (+3.5, ML +170) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (+3, ML +145) at Rams, 20-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) vs. Falcons, 34-33
Saints (+2.5, ML +130) at Jaguars, 13-6

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-17) vs. Giants, 35-14
Vikings (-3.5) vs. Eagles, 38-20
Panthers (-2) vs. Buccaneers, 37-26

Kyle Style

-- The Carolina Panthers (-2) had to go overseas for a little revenge on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 37-26 score behind QB Kyle Allen, who is quickly becoming a hero in Charlotte. The Panthers were 0-2 SU/ATS after a Week 2 loss against the Bucs at Bank of America Stadium, as QB Cam Newton tried to fight through a foot injury, but couldn't be very effective. After that game the braintrust elected to rest Newton in Week 3 for a game in Arizona, and the rest is history. Allen has led the team to victories in Glendale, Houston, at home in Charlotte, and now in London, going 4-0 SU/ATS since taking over under center in Week 3. 

He may or may not be the future in Charlotte, but the more he wins, the more cloudy the future of Newton gets with the Panthers. Carolina now heads into a bye next week, followed by a trip to meet the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers. A win at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, and Newton might not see the field again in 2019.

Teddy Slams

-- The New Orleans Saints were expected to be in trouble after losing QB Drew Brees (thumb) in Week 2 in L.A. The timetable for Brees' return was six-to-eight weeks. Many talking heads felt that if the Saints were able to simply tread water and go 3-3 in the absence of Brees, they'd be positions well for a stretch run to the playoffs. QB Teddy Bridgewater and the defense have had other ideas.

Since losing Brees the Saints have rolled up a 4-0 SU/ATS record, winning on the road in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, at home on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys, at home in a divisional battle with the Tampa Bay  Buccaneers and now a grind-it-out road win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-6. The Saints are allowing just 13.3 PPG over the past three games, as the defense has stepped up with the offense a bit inconsistent. They'd done more than tread water without Brees, they have parked themselves in first place atop the NFC South standings. Who would have thought Allen and Bridgewater would be the QBs of the top two teams in the NFC South?

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5) battle, one of three games with a line listed over 50. The Texans-Chiefs games was lucky to go over. With 6:17 remaining in regulation, the Texans scored a touchdown to take a 29-24 lead. They went for the two-point conversion and successfully converted, posting a win across the board for the 'over'. The Atlanta Falcons-Arizona Cardinals (52.5) battle had the most total points of any game this weekend, as the Cards won 34-33. There might have been even more points, too, if PK Matt Bryant didn't misfire on an extra point late.

The San Francisco 49ers-Los Angeles Rams (50) divisional battle never came close to threatening the 'over', however, as the 49ers defense continues to be legit. They held QB Jared Goff under 100 passing yards, and it also helped that RB Todd Gurley (thigh) was sidelined. The 49ers won 20-7, and their games are worth watching in future weeks for high lines, as Vegas doesn't seem to trust their defense yet.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Denver Broncos (41) game. The Titans failed to score in the 16-0 loss, and head coach Mike Vrabel pulled QB Marcus Mariota in favor of Ryan Tannehill, but it made no difference. The three games with lines of 42.5 -- New Orleans Saints-Jacksonville Jaguars (19 total points), Washington Redskins-Miami Dolphins (33 total points) and Pittsburgh Steelers-Los Angeles Chargers (41 total points) each hit the 'under'.

-- The 'under' went 2-1 in the three primetime games of Week 6, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (45.5) battle hitting thanks to RB Jamaal Williams. In the final minute, the Lions were going to let him score so they could get the ball back. Instead, he gave himself up at the 1, and the Packers settled for the game-winning field goal, 23-22. The 'over' is 5-14 (26.3%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Cowboys WR Amari Cooper (quadriceps) exited early against the Jets and was unable to return. WRs Tavon Austin and Michael Gallup are tasked with picking up the slack.

-- Seahawks TE Will Dissly (Achilles) exited early against the Browns and was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chiefs and Broncos hook up on Thursday Night Football, and Kansas City is on a two-game slide, and 0-3 ATS skid. On the flip side, the Broncos have turned things around with two straight wins and covers thanks for a suffocating defense, including a Week 6 shutout.

-- The Jaguars travel to meet the Bengals, and the shine of rookie QB Gardner Minshew has rubbed off a bit for Jacksonville. They're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two. The Bengals, however, are 0-6 SU/3-3 ATS, and they're averaging a dismal 13.8 PPG, although they have posted 20.0 PPG in two games at home.

-- The Bills are returning from a bye, and they face the winless Dolphins. Buffalo is 4-1 SU/ATS, with their only loss to the Patriots in Week 5. Buffalo has hit the 'under' in all five outings, the only team yet to see an 'over' result. The Dolphins have hit four straight 'under' results, too.

-- The Falcons host the Rams, and Atlanta's defense is in shambles. They have allowed 20 or more points in all six of their games, and 24 or more points in four in a row, and five of six overall. In the past two games Atlanta is averaging 32.5 PPG while allowing 43.0 PPG. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in the past six, and they have failed to cover four in a row.

-- The Texans and Colts square off in Indianapolis. Houston has won four of the past five overall, and they're averaging 42.0 PPG across the past two games while allowing 28.0 PPG. The Colts will be well rested, coming off a bye following their Week 5 win in Kansas City.

-- The Eagles and Cowboys meet on Sunday Night Football, and the Cowboys are on a three-game skid. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS. The combined record of their first three opponents is 3-14 SU, so perhaps their start wasn't as impressive as it appeared.

-- The Patriots and Jets meet on Monday Night Football, the second meeting of these rivals already this season. The Jets fell 30-14 at Gillette Stadium on Sept. 22 with QB Luke Falk under center. He isn't even with the team any longer, as QB Sam Darnold is back from illness. It will be interesting to see how the Jets build upon their upset of the Cowboys.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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