Oct 19, 2019
Total Talk - Week 7
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We're heading to Sunday Week 7 of the National Football League regular season. Primetime games have been a bummer for 'over' bettors so far this season. The Thursday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos went well under to kick off the new week, too. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap and he is supposed to miss several weeks, so keep an eye on the totals of Kansas City games going forward. With veteran backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs offense won't be nearly as effective.
|2019 Total Results - Game & Halves|
The books were well in the black for a third consecutive week even though the totals were split right down the middle at 7-7. The Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in England hit the over, which is now 2-0 in the two International Series games this season. We'll get a week break from games in Jolly Ol' England before the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams meet in Wembley Stadium.
Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were stifled as the under went 9-3-2 in the final 30 minutes. Simiar to the overall under (49-43) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (52-39-1) and second-half (46-42-4).
We had four more divisional battles in Week 6, and all three of the divisional battles on North American soil hit the 'under', with the only over happening at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between the Bucs and Panthers in the 26th game played in London since 2007. If you include Thursday's outcome between the Chiefs and Broncos, the under is now 20-10 (67%) in divisional games this season.
|Divisional Game Results Week 6|
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: 47 ½ to 43 ½
San Francisco at Washington: 43 to 40
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: 52 ½ to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Baltimore at Seattle: 50 ½ to 49
New Orleans at Chicago: 38 ½ to 37
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
San Francisco at Washington: Under 92%
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: Over 89%
New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Over 87%
Philadelphia at Dallas (SNF): Over 86%
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Over 83%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (70 percent) in the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in L.A. Rams-Atlanta (67 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 7
|Week 6 Total Results|
Other Week 7 Action
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This game is an interesting one to watch, as the winless Bengals have a slew of injuries in their secondary, including DBs William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee). They might get CB Darqueze Dennard (knee) back from the PUP list, but they still have issues. The Bengals have actually been middle of the road against the pass, but brutal against the run, ranking last in the NFL at 184.5 yards per game. They're allowing 426.0 total yards per game to rank 31st, too. On the flip side, the rank 11th running the ball with 127.5 yards per game. Jacksonville's offense might be able to put up some big points. They have allowed 58 points in their past two road games, both overs, so this is an interesting game to watch.
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: Former NFC West Division rivals meet in Atlanta when the Rams swoop into town to battle the Falcons. The Rams are expected to see CB Jalen Ramsey make his team debut after being acquired this week. He'll be a welcome addition with CB Aqib Talib (ribs) out indefinitely. The Rams rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (272.5), and the Falcons are 27th in total yards allowed (388.8) and passing yards allowed (271.2), while allowing 31.0 PPG to check in 31st in the NFL. This could be another track meet under the roof.
Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders hit the road to ball the Packers in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Raiders have hit the 'over' in all three of their games away from the Bay Area, going 2-0 in their two true road games with another over in London in Week 5 last time out. For the Packers, they'll again be without WR Davante Adams (toe), while WRs Geronimo Allison (chest) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) are considered doubtful. The Pack are likely to have quite a few unheralded and inexperienced receivers going, which might mean more of a ground-based attack. A heavy run game means a better chance of an under.
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals and Giants have a line hovering around 50 for their battle between former NFC East rivals. It could be a high-scoring affair, as the Giants get a huge boost from the return of RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and TE Evan Engram (knee). As such, the Giants offense could be fairly prolific, especially against a Cardinals defense which ranks 30th in total yards allowed (414.0), 30th in passing yards allowed (281.2) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (132.8). Arizona has scored 22.3 PPG, while allowing 28.5 PPG. Teams from the Pacific Time Zone playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season have posted an over in six of 11 occasions, and the over is 6-3 if you take the Chargers out of the equation (two unders in two games).
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: A pair of defensive-minded clubs battle in Nashville. The Chargers and Titans have each hit the under in five straight games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in total yards allowed (321.7) and 10th in points allowed (19.7 PPG), while Tennessee ranks eighth in total yards allowed (321.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (217.3) and fifth in points allowed (15.3 PPG). However, they're a very ordinary 15th in rushing yards allowed (104.5). Watch this, as RB Melvin Gordon rushed for a career-high 196 yards against Tennessee in a 2016 meeting. The Titans will give QB Ryan Tannehill his first Tennessee start, as he replaced the ineffective QB Marcus Mariota.
There are three games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 7, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half. Two of the games are divisional battles, too.
San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The 49ers will be playing in their third game in the Eastern Time Zone, splitting the over/under in those games. They scored 31 points in the Week 1 game at Tampa Bay, and 41 in the Week 2 game at Cincinnati, and now they'll face a one-win Redskins side. On the flip side, the Redskins have allowed 31, 31 and 33 in their three home games, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. As an underdog of nine or more points, the Redskins are allowing 32.5 PPG in two outings, too. One thing to note, however, is that the 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the two games they have been favored, while hitting the under in four of their five games overall.
Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins will play in just their second road game of the season, and they hit the 'under' in that lone road trip, falling 31-6 at Dallas in Week 3. The Dolphins scored a season-high 16 points in Week 6, hitting the 'under' for the fourth consecutive game. They have scored 10, 0, 6, 10 and 16 in five games, averaging an NFL-worst 8.4 PPG. The Dolphins turn back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, looking for a little 'Fitz-magic' against his former team. The Bills are the only team in the NFL yet to see an 'over' result, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0, including 2-0 vs. AFC East foes. They allowed just 16 points in each of those divisional games.
New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See Below)
Under the Lights
Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football under has cashed in all seven games so far this season, including Philly's trip to Atlanta in Week 2, and a 12-10 loss by Dallas in New Orleans in Week 4. The Cowboys have played two divisional games, cashing the 'over' in each. They are averaging 33.0 PPG in those two games, while allowing 19.0 PPG. The Eagles hit the 'over' in their only NFC East tilt so far, a 32-27 win over Washington in Week 1. In their three road games the Eagles have scored 20 or more points in each game while allowing 29.7 PPG, hitting the 'over' in two of the three games.
New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road for the Monday nighter against the Jets, who looked like a new program in a Week 6 win over Dallas with QB Sam Darnold back under center after missing a few games due to a bout with mononucleosis. These teams met in Week 3 when Luke Falk was the starting QB, and the Jets offense was blanked in New England, with the Jets scoring two defensive touchdowns in the 30-14 loss, a game which went 'over' by one point, and probably should not have. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 against AFC East teams, while the under is 11-5 in New York's past 16 inside the division. The under has hit in six of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in New Jersey.
It was another so-so week, taking another small (-$10) loss. The low-scoring Saints-Jags battle was a huge disappointment in Week 6. Anyway, that's (-$480) for the season, too. We'll look to keep it going in Week 7. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Jacksonville-Cincinnati 43 ½
Best Under: Philadelphia-Dallas 49 ½
Best First-Half Under: Oakland-Green Bay 23 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 56 ½ Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 56 Baltimore-Seattle
Over 50 ½ Jacksonville-Cincinnati
CD's Best Bets
Chris David kept his hot streak going with another 2-1 record in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and his strongest play (Browns-Seahawks Over) was never in doubt. He now sits at 11-7 (61%) on the season. For this week's Podcast, CD gave insight into some seasonal trends that he's been following, plus he touches on a popular total system.
-- Teams 'off the bye' this season have watched the 'under' go 4-0 so far. Buffalo, Indianapolis, Chicago and Oakland are all playing with rest on Sunday.
-- The "Thursday Night Total" system is back and alive. For new readers viewing ‘Total Talk’ for the first time, the angle calls for finding out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and playing the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. It sits at 4-1 (80%) on the season and this week's matchup calls for an 'over' play on the New England-N.Y. Jets game this Monday, since the Patriots hosted the N.Y. Giants last Thursday from Foxboro.
-- Teams that have won on Monday Night Football this season have watched the 'under' go 5-1 in their next game. For side bettors, the winner has also gone 2-4 straight up and the lone winners were the Bears and 49ers after they defeated the Redskins and Browns respectively. Digging deeper, only one of those only one of those six teams that won scored more than 20 points the following week, which was Pittsburgh. That came in the Steelers home loss to the Ravens, a 26-23 decision in overtime. Sticking with this angle, expecting points from Green Bay could be wishful thinking at Lambeau Field come Sunday.
-- The loser on MNF this season hasn't fared well either, going 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in their next game. The totals have gone 3-3 in those outcomes but the loser has only averaged 15.8 PPG. If you believe this seasonal trend will hold, then Detroit could be a fade at Ford Field versus Minnesota.
CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below three games:
Miami at Buffalo
Oakland at Green Bay
Minnesota at Detroit
Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 38:55 of Episode 13. For questions, comments, banter....CD can be reached at strong>[email protected]</strong.
Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI