Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Sunday Blitz - Week 7
Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won eight of his last 10 NFL selections and is currently on a 9-2 guarantee run. He is locked and loaded with a trio of Sunday afternoon games. Click to win!
GAMES TO WATCH
Texans at Colts (-1 ½, 47) – 1:00 PM EST
Houston (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) has taken over the top spot in the AFC South following a pair of high-scoring victories over Atlanta and Kansas City. The Texans rallied past the Chiefs last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by a 20-0 second quarter to erase an early 14-point deficit. Deshaun Watson juked his way into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter as the Texans improved to 3-0 ATS this season away from NRG Stadium.
The Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are also coming off an underdog victory at Kansas City in its last game, albeit back in Week 5. Indianapolis is fresh off the bye after stunning the defending AFC West champions as 10 ½-point underdogs, 19-13, while outrushing the Chiefs in that Sunday night triumph, 180-36. The Colts are back at home for the first time since losing in surprising fashion to the upstart Raiders back in Week 4 as Indianapolis has drilled the OVER in both games at Lucas Oil Stadium this season.
This series was dominated by the road team last season as Houston outlasted Indianapolis at Lucas Oil in overtime, 37-34 to give the Texans its first win of 2018. That victory spurred a nine-game winning streak for Houston, which ended at home against Indianapolis in a 24-21 defeat in Week 14 as four-point favorites. The Colts eliminated the Texans in the Wild Card round at NRG Stadium in a 21-7 rout as Indianapolis led 21-0 headed to the fourth quarter.
Best Bet: Colts 23, Texans 20
Ravens at Seahawks (-3, 48) – 4:25 PM EST
The two teams that have not covered since Week 1 both reside in the Beltway as the Redskins and Ravens are currently on 0-5 ATS skids. Baltimore (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) sits atop the AFC North after holding off winless Cincinnati last week, 23-17, but the Ravens failed to cash as 10 ½-point favorites. After allowing the Bengals to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Ravens outscored Cincinnati, 23-3 until giving up a late score to prevent a cover.
The Seahawks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) have jumped out to an impressive start but still sit behind the undefeated 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Seattle has won four games by four points or less, including erasing a 20-6 deficit in last week’s 32-28 triumph at Cleveland to improve to 3-0 SU/ATS away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have yet to cover at home this season in three tries, including in one-point wins over the Bengals and Rams. Seattle’s offense has exploded this season by posting 27 points or more in five straight games, as the OVER has hit four times in this stretch.
Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the second time this season after losing at Kansas City in Week 3. In spite of that loss, the Ravens are 3-1 SU/ATS as a ‘dog since Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback midway through 2018. The Seahawks own a perfect 3-0 mark against AFC North opponents tonight, while Seattle seeks its first cover as a home favorite since Week 14 last season against Minnesota.
Best Bet: Ravens 24, Seahawks 23
Saints at Bears (-4, 37) – 4:25 PM EST
There was expected concern when Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury in a Week 2 defeat to the Rams and he would be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks. However, the Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) haven’t skipped a beat with their future Hall-of-Famer on the sidelines as veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has led New Orleans to four consecutive victories (and covers). The Saints avoided a letdown last Sunday after back-to-back home wins as New Orleans edged Jacksonville, 13-6 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 games away from the Superdome.
The Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) return from the bye week following a surprising loss in London to the Raiders back in Week 5. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to play after missing the Oakland game with a shoulder injury, but there has not been a commitment yet from Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago has scored only 19 points at home this season in two games at Soldier Field, but the Bears’ defense has yielded just 16 points against the Packers and Vikings. The Bears have allowed 17 points or less in eight of the past 11 home contests since the start of 2018, resulting in seven UNDERS.
The Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara with an ankle injury, as former Viking and Raider Latavius Murray is poised to receive a good number of carries on Sunday. New Orleans has won each of the past four meetings with Chicago dating back to 2011, including a 20-12 triumph at the Superdome as 7 ½-point favorites in 2017.
Best Bet: Bears 19, Saints 13
Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 15-15 this season)
Raiders +4 ½
Bears -3 ½
Chris David (0-5 last week, 11-19 this season)
Bengals +3 ½
Bears -3 ½
Cowboys -2 ½
Jets +9 ½
Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4
Chris David (6-0)
Used – Seattle, New England, Dallas, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Baltimore
Week 6 Selection - Buffalo
BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 43 ½ - Jaguars at Bengals
Jacksonville’s defense has been up and down to say the least all season as the Jaguars have moved on from star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded to the Rams last week. The Jaguars have allowed 13 points or less in three games, while yielding 24 points or more in three other contests. Jacksonville slowed down New Orleans’ offense in Week 6, but the Jaguars’ offense mustered a pair of field goals in a 13-6 defeat. Cincinnati has struggled all season as evidenced by its 0-6 mark, but the Bengals can’t run the ball, while scoring its last offensive touchdown in the first half back in Week 2 against San Francisco.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
Both Rams and Falcons have struggled of late (actually Atlanta has stumbled all season). The defending NFC champions are riding a three-game skid since a 3-0 start, but are three-point road favorites as they head cross-country to face a 1-5 Atlanta squad. The Falcons have allowed 87 points in the past two losses at Houston and Arizona, but Atlanta has won in its lone opportunity as a home underdog this season against Philadelphia in Week 2. The Rams’ offense totaled 157 yards in last Sunday’s 20-7 home defeat to the 49ers, but L.A. has covered in five of its past seven chances as a road favorite.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites against the Raiders last Monday at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. However, Green Bay has dropped to 4 ½-point favorites against an Oakland team coming off the bye week. The Packers edged the Lions on Monday night to improve to 5-1 on the season, while the Raiders are fresh off back-to-back impressive underdog wins over the Colts and Bears.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams that have lost on Monday Night Football this season have not fared well the following week by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record in 2019. Houston is the only team to win after a Monday night defeat, but the Texans failed to cash in a one-point victory over the Jaguars. The Lions sit in this position on Sunday after their 22-21 setback at Green Bay as Detroit hosts Minnesota. The Lions struggled with the Vikings last season by losing both meetings, while not reaching the end zone in either defeat.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.