Betting Recap – Week 8

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

Razor Thin Margin

-- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

London Fog

-- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat.  RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.  

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13. 

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

Looking Ahead

-- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

-- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

-- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

-- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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