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Bolts, Ravens carry books to win

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
The Dolphins notched their first victory of the season and the Patriots were tagged with their first loss, but the story on Sunday’s Week 9 NFL action for Nevada sportsbooks was and why they won again was the Packers laying an egg in front of thousands of cheese-heads in Carson, California against the Chargers.

“It was a really good day,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. “The Packers game turned out to be one of our best games of the season. Half of our win on the day was the result of the Packers losing. We had a six-figure wager on the Packers and also had them involved in a six-figure teaser, in addition to being one of the more popular teams this weekend on parlays.”

The Chargers 26-11 win as 4.5-point home favorites paid out +195 on the money-line at MGM properties and sent the Packers to only their second loss of the season and dropped them to 6-3 against-the-spread. The actual score isn’t as indicative of how bad the Packers were beaten with quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing for only 161 of their 185 total net yards.

Between the Chargers having no home-field advantage and the then 7-1 Packers looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, bettors had no problem laying down cash against the then 3-5 Chargers. It was one of the most popular parlay games of the week so when they went down it killed the majority of carryover risk into the Sunday night game which was one of the most bet games of the season, and, of course, the majority was riding with the undefeated Patriots.

“The Sunday night game was the most tickets we have written on any game this season,” Stoneback said. “The public was all over the Patriots today (Sunday), so we’re rooting for the Ravens tonight.”

The Ravens rolled to a 37-20 win as three-point home underdogs, a spread that was the lowest of the season against any of the Patriots eight previous opponents. The Ravens jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back while their No. 1 rushing team went above their season average (204 ypg) and rambled for 210 yards. The Ravens money-line paid out at +146 at Circa Sportsbooks.

There was a definite sense of awakening as to who the Patriots really are after getting beaten so badly because their 8-0 record came against bad teams such as the Dolphins, Jets twice, Redskins, and Browns. They covered the spread in six of those games which is why the public came out full force on them in Week 9.

“We had so much or our parlay and teaser risk eliminated by key teams in the afternoon (Packers loss) that we don’t have a lot of carryover risk into the Sunday night game,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso said. “I don’t remember the last time I was able to put in a projected risk score with Patriots and over on a Sunday night game and show it as a winner for us.”

CG Books took a few large wagers on the Ravens early in the week to drop from Patriots -4 down t -3, but they still won at a high margin on the day despite those bets. Packers to Patriots parlays and Packers to Patriots teasers all went down the drain for the majority of casual bettors.

“It was a good day,’ said William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “By far the Packers were our best. The Seahawks and Bills ended up being the worst.”

The Seahawks were a popular public play despite their home game against the Buccaneers watching the spread drop from -6.5 to -4 with respected money taking the Bucs earlier in the week. The Bucs jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter, but QB Russell Wilson showed once against why he may be the most underrated signal caller in the league as he brought the Seahawks back to a 40-34 overtime win, which covered the spread for most who bet the game over the weekend. The Seahawks now move to 7-2 and improved to 4-4-1 ATS.

The Dolphins 26-18 home win over the Jets (-3) also helped most books because the general consensus was that the Jets were a much better team despite only having one win themselves. But in hindsight, you could see momentum building with the Dolphins behind Ryan Fitzpatrick who has covered the last four games he’s played. The spread always catches up to teams in the NFL.

The Dolphins win helped slow any parlay and teaser momentum on the day and was aided more by the afternoon wins by the Packers and the Broncos.

The story of the Broncos 24-19 home win against the Browns (-4) was comical in the sense that former starting QB Joe Flacco bashed the coaches play calling to the press following their 15-13 loss at Indianapolis last week. Rather than trade words in the papers, the Broncos instead announced Flacco was out 4-to-6 weeks with a neck injury. Classic. They just said, "you're injured."

Instead of watching another week of Flacco being immobile, fumbling, and missing receivers, they decided to give back-up Brandon Allen a shot at running the show despite the fact he had never thrown a regular-season pass in the NFL. All Allen would do was throw for 193 yards passing and two TD passes, but most important was not turning the ball over. He gave his No. 4 ranked defense a chance to win, and despite the Browns not turning the ball over, it was the Broncos defense that made the big stands they had to.

The interesting part about Week 9 was that all 11 home teams won outright, five of them underdogs. Including the neutral site game in a London, a 26-3 Texans win against the Jaguars, favorites went 6-6 ATS and the over was 8-4.

Back to the drawing board for bettors, and I know I sound like a broken record the last four weeks, but their day of the favorites cashing in by a large majority is coming soon. It always does.


Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

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