Total Talk – Week 10
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
It's Week 10 of the National Football League regular season, and we're already off to a quick start - kinda. The Thursday night battle between the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders inched over the finish line for 50 points on a line of 49 at most shops. If you're scoring at home, primetime games have now watched the over connect in four straight, which is a season-long streak for games under the lights this season.
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The books were back on top in Week 9, but that was mostly due to side bets. The totals were 10-4 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.
Bettors hoping for high-scoring games in Week 9 were very pleased, hitting the over in 10 of 14 outings The games got off to quick starts, too, with the over connecting in the first half in nine of 14 contests, with the 'under' going 8-6 in the second half last week. Through 135 games this season, the 'under' sits at 69-66-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (69-65-1) and second-half (71-60-4).
Division Bell
In the four divisional battles in Week 9, three went over - including all three of the games on North American soil. Only the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium ended up going under the total, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the Jags offense. The under is now 24-15 (61.5%) in divisional games this season.| Divisional Game Results Week 9 | ||||||||||||
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Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: 41 ½ to 44 ½
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): 44 to 47
Buffalo at Cleveland: 42 ½ to 40
Minnesota at Dallas (SNF): 45 ½ to 48
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: 45 ½ to 43 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Detroit at Chicago: Under 92%
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 90%
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): Over 89%
Buffalo at Cleveland: Under 87%
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 77%
Kansas City at Tennessee: Over 77%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Carolina at Green Bay (66 percent) battle.
Handicapping Week 10
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Other Week 10 Action
Kansas City at Tennessee: The Chiefs have their big gun back, as QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be under center after missing the past two due to a partially dislocated kneecap. The over actually hit in each of the past two without Mahomes, and the over is 6-3 in nine games overall. Kansas City is on the road, and there is no real lean here, as the total is 2-2 in four games away from home, all Mahomes starts. The Titans have hit the over in three in a row, scoring 23, 27 and 20, while allowing 20, 23 and 30. It's a big change after the under hit in five in a row from Week 2 through 6. The over is 6-2 in Tennessee's past eight at home, too.Buffalo at Cleveland: The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40, and is the lowest total on the board for Week 10. The 'under' opened 5-0 for Buffalo this season, and they were the last team in the NFL to see an 'over' result. The under has hit in all three of Buffalo's game this season, allowing just 12.3 PPG (16, 14 and 7). The under is 8-1 in the past nine overall for Buffalo, too. As far as the Browns are concerned, they were expected to do big things this season. So far, that's only happened once on the road in Week 4 at Baltimore (40 points), and one in Week 6 against Seattle (28 points). They have averaged 14 PPG in the other six outings.
While the Browns are actually favored in this game, keep this in mind...if they lose, season win total bettors will at least push the under 9 on tickets since they would drop to 2-7, with the most wins possible at 9. If the Bills win, they would be 7-2, cashing the over of six wins.
Arizona at Tampa Bay: Bucs head coach Bruce Arians will get a crack at his former team for the first time. This total is well in the fifties, sitting at 52.5 as of Saturday morning. Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have hit the over in 11 of 19 games (57.9 percent). If you remember the Thursday Night system, it's 5-3 this season (62.5 percent), getting back on track with Minnesota's over in Kansas City in Week 9. The home team in the previous Thursday night game has hit the over in five of eight games in their following game. Arizona was home to Frisco last time out, so is an over in the cards? The last time the Cardinals have hit the road for the Eastern Time Zone, they scored 17, 26 and 27 points. The 17 points came in Week 2 in Baltimore, as they left a lot of points on the board in QB Kyler Murray's first NFL road start. The Cards have 22 field goals so far this season, which is troublesome for over bettors. Tampa Bay's pass defense might help solve that, however, as they're downright awful. The over has hit in six straight for the Bucs. They have been favorites twice this season, losing both games while allowing 32 and 31 points.
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: The Jets offense has been abysmal outside of their lone victory against Dallas back on Oct. 13, scoring a season-best 24 points. They have averaged just 10.8 PPG in four games at home this season, with the 'under' 3-1 in their four games at MetLife. For the G-Men, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 on the road - although this game is obviously in their very same building where they play their home games, just a different locker room. At MetLife they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18, hitting the 'under' in four of five. The only over at MetLife came last week against the aforementioned Cowboys, who manhandled the G-Men 37-18. Of course, that game was fortunate to go over, as there was a scoop and score with six seconds to flip the total to over.Detroit at Chicago: The total has dropped from an open of 43.5 to 41.5, perhaps because the 'under' has cashed in four of the past six battles in this series. While that's all well and good, the 'over' has hit in each of the past two battles at Soldier Field, including a 34-22 Bears win on Nov. 11 last season. The over has been hot for Detroit lately, hitting in three straight, and five of the past six. It's been a combination of two things, as Detroit has scored 22 or more points in six in a row for the Lions, while yielding 23 or more points in each outing. The Bears offense has been poor, posting 16 or fewer points in five of their eight games, hitting the 'under' five times this season. The Chicago defense is also ranked sixth overall, allowing just 18 PPG.
Carolina at Green Bay: The Packers laid a huge egg last week on the road against the Chargers, scoring just 11 points. They nearly ended up in single digits except for a late touchdown and two-point conversion. They'll be glad to be back at Lambeau where they have totals of 21, 27, 27, 23 and 42, hitting the over in three of the past four. For the Panthers, the venue hasn't mattered lately, as they have cashed the over in four straight, and six of eight overall. The offense has produced 30 or more points three of the past four, and the defense has yielded 20 or more points in seven of eight this season. The key to this game will be two-fold. Carolina's pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, so QB Aaron Rodgers faces a tough task. Green's rush defense is a dismal 24th in the league, so they'll have a difficult time slowing down RB QB Christian McCaffrey.
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: The Rams team total is 23.5, and they have hit that in three of the past four games. They're coming off a bye, and they have scored 30 and 51 in head coach Sean McVay's two games off a bye. The Rams have hit the under in six of their past eight games on the road, and the under is 5-1 in the past six on a grass surface, too. The Steelers enter this game as a home underdog for the second time this season. They lost 26-23 to Baltimore back on Oct. 6, one of three over results in the first eight games. For Pittsburgh, the under is 7-3 in their past 10 on a grass surface, although the over has hit in five of the past seven against winning teams, and 14 of their past 20 games at Heinz Field overall. Of course, a good chunk of those games were with Big Ben, Antonio Brown, etc. - guys not on the field in this one.
Heavy Expectations
There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 10, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 44 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): QB Matt Ryan is back for the Falcons just in time for this NFC South battle. It hasn't made a lot of difference for the Falcons this season, as they're just 1-7 SU. However, their defense has been horrific, allowing 20 or more points in all eight contests, including 27 or more in each of the past four. Both teams are coming off the bye, and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta's past 13 off a bye, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 for New Orleans following a rest. In the past six games at home following a bye, the Saints have averaged 43.1 PPG with the over cashing in six in a row and the Saints covering each outing with wins by an average of 16 PPG. In this series, however, the under is 3-1 in the past four meetings, including 2-0 in New Orleans.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals actually played the Ravens tough in the first meeting on Oct. 13, falling 23-17 in an 'under' result as Cincinnati got the late backdoor on a rushing touchdown by QB Andy Dalton. The 'Red Rifle' isn't coming through that door this week, as QB Ryan Finley makes his first NFL start, and he has had two weeks to prepare with the Bengals coming off a bye. Matt Blunt discusses this game in even further detail in his Hot or Not Report - Week 10. The total is down to 44.5 from an open of 46.5.
Miami at Indianapolis (4:05 p.m. ET): The Dolphins have resembled an NFL-caliber team in the past four games, averaging 19.3 PPG across the past four games on offense after averaging just 6.5 PPG in the first four. Defensively, they have even shown some improvement, allowing just 23.4 PPG in the past four after yielding 40.5 PPG in the first four. They might catch a break, as QB Jacoby Brissett's (knee) injury has him listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. If Brissett doesn't play, QB Brian Hoyer is a downgrade, but not much. He tossed three TDs in Brissett's stead last week. The Colts offense has posted 27, 24, 30 and 15 in four home games, hitting the over three times.
Under the Lights
Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football tussle has inched up from 47 to 48, although trends are leaning under. That's a surprising move considering both sides rank in the Top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. The under is 9-2 in Minnesota's past 11 against NFC opponents, and 6-2 in their past eight on the road. Remember, the Vikings are coming off a loss, and they have held opponents to 14 and 10 points following setbacks. For Dallas, it's all over all the time, hitting in seven of their past nine against the NFC, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall.Seattle at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The total has moved from 45 to 47 for this highly-anticipated Monday nighter and NFC West showdown. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 12.8 PPG, but they haven't exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks. QB Russell Wilson is the league's best passing quarterback this season, posting a 118.2 QB rating. If you bet the trends in this series, you lean under based on the past five of seven at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara going under. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall in this series.
Fearless Predictions
It was a decent week, as I hit my three top picks, but missed the teaser because of the low-scoring Houston-Jacksonville game. Still, going ($200) wasn't anything to sneeze at. The deficit is down to (-$285) for the season. We'll look to keep it cooking in Week 10, hopefully getting back in black soon. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!Best Over: Carolina-Green Bay 47
Best Under: Kansas City-Tennessee 49 ½
Best First-Half Under: N.Y. Giants-N.Y. Jets 22 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 56 ½ Kansas City-Tennessee
Over 44 ½ Atlanta-New Orleans
Over 41 Minnesota-Dallas
CD's Best Bets
Chris David continued his run of 2-1 records in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and could've been 3-0 again if the Packers offense would've showed up in Los Angeles. Including the Week 9 results, he sits at 16-11 (59%) on the season. For this week's Podcast, CD focused on the 'over' run in divisional matchups and he touched on the "Thursday Night Total" system again.CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below three games:
Buffalo at Cleveland
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh
Minnesota at Dallas
Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 33:36 of Episode 18.
Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI
Where to place a bet this NFL Season?
- Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
- Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
- Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.
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