Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Sunday Blitz - Week 10
Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won 18 of his last 21 NFL guarantee plays. He is locked and loaded with a Sunday afternoon guarantee. Click to win!
GAMES TO WATCH
Bills at Browns (-3, 40) – 1:00 PM EST
Heading into this season, the expectation was Cleveland would be 6-2 through eight games and Buffalo could be 2-6. However, those predictions were off-base as the Bills (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) have eyes on a Wild Card berth after limiting their sixth opponent to fewer than 17 points in last Sunday’s 24-9 rout of the Redskins. Buffalo cashed as 10 ½-point favorites, marking its first cover in the chalk role since Week 2. The Bills have taken care of their business away from Orchard Park this season by compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS road record, while cashing the UNDER in all three victories.
The Browns (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) have dug themselves a major hole halfway through the season as Cleveland lost its fourth straight game in last Sunday’s 24-19 defeat at Denver as four-point favorites. The Cleveland offense has been held to fewer than 20 points in five of eight games, while the Browns are still seeking their first home victory of 2019. Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield didn’t throw an interception in a game for the first time this season, but the top pick of the 2018 draft hasn’t posted more than one touchdown pass in a game in 2019.
Buffalo has put together a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the underdog role this season, while covering in five of the last six opportunities when receiving points since 2018. The Browns are expected to get a boost offensively as running back Kareem Hunt will see his first action of the season following an eight-game suspension. The Bills have captured the last two meetings with the Browns in 2014 and 2016, while Buffalo makes its first visit to Cleveland since 2013.
Best Bet: Browns 20, Bills 19
Panthers at Packers (-4 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Following its worst performance of the season in a 51-13 drubbing at undefeated San Francisco, the Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) rebounded nicely in last Sunday’s 30-20 home victory over the Titans. The final score was a bit misleading as Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead, while the Panthers built a commanding 30-17 advantage on Christian McCaffrey’s third touchdown of the game. McCaffrey has reached the end zone in six consecutive games, while the Panthers improved to 5-1 SU/ATS with Kyle Allen starting at quarterback.
The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) put together their worst overall effort of the season in last week’s 26-11 setback to the Chargers. Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, but the Packers already trailed at that point, 26-3. It was ugly all around for the Pack as Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-low 161 yards, while Green Bay rushed for 45 yards. The Packers have won four of five games at Lambeau Field this season, as Green Bay tries to improve on a 9-3-1 home mark since the start of 2018.
Carolina has hit the OVER in four consecutive games, as the Panthers have topped the 40-point mark in four of six contests started by Allen. The Panthers have captured the last two meetings with the Packers since 2015, while Carolina is visiting Lambeau Field for the first time since a 38-17 defeat in 2014.
Best Bet: Packers 28, Panthers 20
Rams (-4, 43) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST
Los Angeles (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) is back from the bye week after taking care of winless Cincinnati in London, 24-10 as 12-point favorites. The Rams have fixed their defensive woes since allowing a combined 85 points in a two-week stretch to Tampa Bay and Seattle as Los Angeles has yielded a total of 40 points the past three contests. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted an incredible 17-4 road record, including a perfect 5-0 away mark against AFC foes.
Following a rough 0-3 start, the Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) have come back to life by winning four of the last five games. Although two of those victories came against teams with a combined one win (Miami and Cincinnati), Pittsburgh knocked off the Chargers on the road, while edging the Colts last Sunday, 26-24. The Steelers have lit up the Heinz Field scoreboard this season by scoring 26, 27, 23, 27, and 26 points in five home games.
Pittsburgh has excelled in the underdog role since getting thumped at New England in the season opener by compiling a 3-0 ATS mark when receiving points, while going 5-1 ATS overall the last six games. The Rams are 10-1 the last three seasons against interconference opponents as the lone loss came in last season’s Super Bowl to the Patriots.
Best Bet: Rams 30, Steelers 21
Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 24-21 this season)
Chris David (5-0 last week, 19-26 this season)
Kevin Rogers (3-1)
Eliminated – Rams lost to Buccaneers in Week 4
Chris David (9-0)
Used – Seattle, New England, Dallas, L.A. Chargers, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Week 10 Selection - New Orleans
BEST TOTAL PLAY
Under 43 ½ - Dolphins at Colts
Miami has played much better the last few weeks in spite of picking up only its first win of the season last Sunday against the Jets. The Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, who will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of the injured Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have cashed the OVER in three of four games at Lucas Oil Stadium, while limiting three of their past four opponents to one offensive touchdown. Miami’s second half struggles have continued by posting a grand total of 12 points in the last three games after halftime.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
You wouldn’t think a team laying two touchdowns that has won six straight games is trap material, but the Saints are in their heavy favorite position on Sunday against the rival Falcons. Atlanta has been a train wreck this season at 1-7, while its defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL. Both these teams are off the bye, which could benefit the struggling Falcons, while the streaking Saints need to reset their focus. The Falcons have split their last four visits to New Orleans and will get Matt Ryan back in the lineup after missing the Seattle loss two weeks ago with an ankle injury.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs moved from a 3 ½-point favorite last Sunday night at Tennessee up to a six-point favorite when news came out that Patrick Mahomes will return to the Kansas City lineup. Last season’s MVP has missed the last two games with a dislocated kneecap sustained in the Week 7 victory at Denver, as the Chiefs are fresh off a last-second victory at Minnesota. The Titans haven’t been listed as a home underdog this season, while the Chiefs own a perfect 4-0 record away from Arrowhead Stadium.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Buccaneers are playing their first game at Raymond James Stadium since Week 3 against the Giants. Tampa Bay has spent the last five games on the road, including a “home” matchup with Carolina in London last month. The Bucs host the Cardinals as Tampa Bay last won at Raymond James in Week 13 of last season against the Panthers. Arizona has been one of the more surprising teams in the league as the Cardinals have posted a solid 6-2 ATS mark in the underdog role.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.