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NFL

Sunday Blitz – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers has won 20 of his last 27 NFL guarantee plays. He is locked and loaded with a Sunday afternoon guarantee. Click to win!

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Eagles (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Only two teams in the NFL have yet to lose a road game this season and both hail from the NFC West. One is San Francisco, who plays Green Bay in a crucial NFC showdown on Sunday night. The other handed the 49ers their first loss of the season back in a Week 10 overtime thriller at Levi’s Stadium. The Seahawks (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) outlasted the Niners two weeks ago to improve to 5-0 away from CenturyLink Field, while coming off the bye last week. Seattle has lived on the edge all season by winning seven games by seven points or less, including the last two against San Francisco and Tampa Bay in overtime.

Seattle travels to the Eastern Time Zone for the fourth time this season (3-0) to face Philadelphia as the Eagles (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) try to rebound from a 17-10 home defeat to New England. The Eagles suffered their first home loss since Week 3 against the Lions as Philadelphia limited New England to three field goals before allowing the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter. Philadelphia’s defense has performed well of late by yielding 44 points in the past three games since getting torched by Dallas for 37 points in a Week 7 blowout loss.

Although Seattle is an extremely short underdog, the Seahawks have covered nine consecutive times when receiving points dating back to last season. Seattle has had its way with Philadelphia in the last few meetings by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record since 2011. The Seahawks topped the Eagles, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home underdogs in the most recent matchup in 2017.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Seahawks 17

Raiders (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

This matchup on paper doesn’t look too thrilling, but both these AFC squads have caught fire of late. Oakland (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) heads east after sweeping a three-game homestand against Detroit, Los Angeles, and Cincinnati. The Raiders have gone from hoping to finish around .500 to being a serious threat to qualify for the postseason. Although Oakland failed to cash as hefty 13-point favorites last week against winless Cincinnati, the Raiders managed a 17-10 triumph as they allowed their fewest points in a game this season.

The Jets (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) have risen from the ashes to capture back-to-back wins over the Giants and Redskins and although that may not be impressive, New York is trying to salvage its season. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw four touchdown passes in last Sunday’s 34-17 rout of the Redskins to help the Jets win their third game against an NFC East foe. Now, New York has to mix in some wins against its own conference, as the Jets have sailed OVER the total in five of six games since last season as a home underdog when Darnold starts.

The Raiders are listed as a road favorite for the first time since a 34-3 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers last season. Since Jon Gruden came back to the Raiders’ sidelines last season, the Silver and Black has struggled on the road off a win by going 0-5 in this situation. The Jets have dropped the last two meetings with the Raiders in 2015 and 2017 (both in Oakland), while New York grabbed an opening week victory in the last matchup at Met Life Stadium in 2014.

Best Bet: Raiders 24, Jets 21

Cowboys at Patriots (-6, 45 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

A pair of first-place teams hook up in the showcase afternoon battle in the NFL at Gillette Stadium. Dallas (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is listed as an underdog for the first time this season as the Cowboys held off the Lions, 35-27 to barely cash as 7 ½-point road favorites. The Cowboys improved to 6-0 this season when scoring at least 31 points, led by Dak Prescott’s 444 yards passing and three touchdown tosses. Dallas is still looking to beat a team with a winning record as all six victories have come against teams entering this week at .500 or below.

The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from their first loss of the season against the Ravens by holding off the Eagles last week, 17-10 as 4 ½-point road favorites. For the ninth time this season, New England held an opponent to less than 14 points and won in spite of no touchdown passes from Tom Brady for the third time this season. Brady also threw for his second-fewest yards this season (216), but the Patriots are riding a seven-game winning streak against NFC opponents since getting tripped up Detroit last September.

Dallas has cashed the OVER in five of the past six games, while seeking its first victory when scoring less than 30 points (0-4). The Cowboys went 6-2 ATS last season in the underdog role, while facing New England for the first time since a 30-6 home defeat to the Patriots as eight-point underdogs in 2015.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Cowboys 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 30-25 this season)

Broncos +4
Bengals +6 ½
Bears -6
Panthers +9 ½
Patriots -6 ½

Chris David (5-0 last week, 15-0 last three weeks, 29-26 this season)

Browns -10 ½
Redskins +3 ½
Panthers +9 ½
Eagles -2
Rams +3

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 – Giants at Bears

Both these teams are struggling at the moment as New York has lost six consecutive games, while Chicago is 1-5 in its past six contests. The Giants’ defense has been torched of late by allowing 27 points or more in each of the previous six games, while hitting the OVER in three straight. The Bears’ offense may not be great, but this can be their opportunity to finally bust out as Chicago has gone 4-1 to the UNDER at Soldier Field. Even though the scoring numbers may not reflect it, the Bears have been outgained from a yardage standpoint in five of the last six games.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Saints rebounded from an ugly loss to the Falcons two weeks ago by cruising past the Buccaneers last Sunday, 34-17. The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas releases early lines about 12 days ahead of time and put out New Orleans -7 against Carolina on November 12. That number has jumped to 9 ½ after the Panthers were blown out by the Falcons at home last week. New Orleans has covered the spread in each of its last seven victories, while Carolina has lost each of its past two road contests at San Francisco and Green Bay.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bills own a 7-3 record, while the Broncos head to western New York with a 3-7 mark. Yet, Buffalo enters Sunday’s contest as a four-point favorite even though the Bills have not lost a game to a team with a losing record this season. The Broncos squandered a 20-0 lead in last week’s 27-23 defeat to the Vikings, but Denver cashed as 10-point underdogs. Denver improved to 5-1 ATS the last six games, including three consecutive covers on the road.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Lions haven’t won only one game since a 2-0-1 start as Detroit is listed as a short road favorite at Washington. The only positive for the Lions (besides facing a 1-9 team) is they have fared well the last few seasons in the game prior to Thanksgiving. Detroit has won four consecutive games before taking the gridiron at Ford Field for its annual Turkey Day matchup, as the Lions face the Bears this Thursday.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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