Betting Recap – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+4, ML +170) vs. Lions, 19-16
Buccaneers (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 35-22
Jets (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Raiders, 34-3

The largest favorite to cover
Browns (-10.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-24
Titans (-4.5) vs. Jaguars, 42-20
Bills (-4) vs. Broncos, 20-3

How About Dem Cowboys?

-- The Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) were able to grab the cover on the road against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in a chilly, mist and fog. While, yes, the Cowboys were able to grab a cover, they fell against a winning team yet again. The Cowboys have beaten the New York Giants (twice), the Washington Redskins, the Miami Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The combined records of the teams Dallas has beaten is 16-49-1, and they haven't recorded a win over a team with a record over .500. The best record of anyone they have beaten is Philadelphia at 5-6. Someone has to win the NFC East, as the Cowboys (6-5) are the only team over .500. They don't seem like to go very far, however.

While they're all well and good, they're still covering. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS across the past five outings, and 7-4 ATS overall. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark on the road, and they're 3-0 ATS across the past three away from home. Sunday's game in Foxboro marked the first time they were an underdog, and they covered at most shops.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (51.5) and Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers (48). The Buccaneers certainly did their part, throwing up 35 points, incuding 19 points in the first-half. The teams combined for 29 points to hit the first-half 'over' in this one, too. In the SNF game, over bettors weren't as fortunate, which is part for the course for primetime games this season. The first-half under narrowly cashed thanks mostly to a goose egg for the Pack, as San Francisco hoisted up 23 points in the first 30 minutes.

The next highest totals on the board were the Thursday night battle between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans (46.5) and Sunday's NFC South tilt under the roof between the Carolina Panthers-New Orleans (46.5). The TNF game was a low-scoring 20-17 battle in favor of the home team, while the home side also won by three in the NFC South battle in NOLA, but this game hit the over rather easily. In fact, we had 10 or more combined points in each quarter, and 32 total points on the board at halftime to cover a first-half 'over'.

 There were three totals on the board under 40, the Denver Broncos-Buffalo Bills (37), Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (37) and Detroit Lions-Washington Redskins (39) each hit the 'under'. The Broncos-Bills game saw a total of just 23 points, the Steelers-Bengals game saw just 26 point sand the Lions-Redskins tilt was the 'highest' scoring of the trio, totaling 35 points. Still, defense reigned supreme, which is never good for a betting public which tends to lean 'over' more often than not. 

The 'under' made a clean sweep in the Week 11 primetime battles, and the 'under' ended up 2-1 under the lights following the 'over' result in the Baltimore Ravens-Los Angeles Rams (47) battle thanks to the heroics of QB Lamar Jackson. The 'over' is just 13-24 (35.1%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Eagles QB Carson Wentz (hand) will have tests on his right hand after suffering an injury in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- We have two divisional battles out of the three Thanksgiving games. The Bears and Lions kick off the festivities at 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field. The Lions, coming off a disappointing 19-16 loss in Washington, has dropped four in a row while failing to cover six in a row after a 4-1 ATS start. The four-game losing streak including a 20-13 loss on Nov. 10 in Chicago, a game which hit the 'under'. Chicago heads into this game with a 9-1 ATS mark in their past 10 divisional games, while Detroit is 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home and 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the division. The Bears are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the favorite 4-0-1 ATS in the past five battles and the under 6-2 in the previous eight meetings.

-- The other divisional battle on Turkey Day is a rematch between the Saints and Falcons in Atlanta. The Falcons stunned the Saints by a 26-9 score in Week 10, winning outright as 13.5-point underdogs. It served as a wake-up call for the Saints, who have scored 34 points in each of the past two outings, both wins and 'over' results. New Orleans has cashed in 24 of the past 32 road games, while Atlanta is still just 6-13 ATS in the past 19 games overall. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in this series, and the under has hit in four of the past five meetings, and seven of the past 10 in Atlanta.

-- The Browns and Steelers will renew acquaintances at Heinz Field just 18 days after 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call the brawl which saw DE Myles Garrett suspended for the remainder of the field for swinging QB Mason Rudolph's helmet at the signal caller. After a 2-6 SU start the Browns have rattled off three straight wins, including a 21-7 victory over the Steelers on Nov. 14. Of course, all three of those victories came at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns are 2-3 SU/ATS in their five games away from home. Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six in this series, but the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetngs, too, with the 'over' 4-1 in the past five meetings in Pittsburgh.

-- The Titans and Colts will square off in Indy. Tennessee is 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 AFC South battles, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. Indy has covered in seven straight divisional games, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. In this series, the Titans are a dismal 3-13 ATS in the past 16 meetings, with Tennessee 1-7 ATS in the past eight trips to Lucas Oil Stadium.

-- The Rams travel to meet the Cardinals, looking to stay hot on the road. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in the past seven on the road. The Rams have dominated this series, too, covering four in a row overall, and four straight in Arizona. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, too.

-- The Chargers and Broncos square off in Denver. The Bolts have been strong on the road, going 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 on the road, including 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side, the Broncos have a dismal 1-4 ATS record in the past five insisde the division. The Chargers have an odd 9-2-5 ATS mark in their past 16 trips to Denver, and the road team is 15-5-2 ATS in the past 22 meetings in this series.

-- The Raiders and Chiefs get together, with Kansas City already a double-digit favorite in this one. Oakland has managed a 3-9 ATS mark in the past 12 on the road, while the Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in the past 26 inside the AFC West. The Raiders have failed to cover in five of their past six trips to Arrowhead, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series. The under is 17-5 in the past 22 meetings in Kansas City, too.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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