Hot & Not Report – Week 13

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Week of November 25th

Last week's piece focused on two NFC divisions and the results they've had in non-division games the past few weeks, and in Week 12 action there were some mixed results.

NFC West teams continued to dominate non-division foes, as both Seattle and San Francisco were able to cover short numbers with relative ease. Seattle continued to shoot themselves in the foot to allow the Eagles to hang around, but thankfully for Seattle backers/fans, Philly has Dorian Gray at QB, and after Sunday's awful performance from Wentz, more and more people are starting to see all the ugliness Wentz has in his game that I touched on weeks ago in that piece.

San Francisco rolled over the Packers on SNF as it was a beat down from start to finish for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo could be in the midst of his “lightning in a bottle” season like the only other past FCS QB's to be drafted in the last 10+ years have experienced (Wentz in 2017, Joe Flacco in January 2013), but it's this San Francisco defense that's the key to the 49ers success. When you've got the type of game wreckers they do in the front seven, most opponents are going to buckle when the 49ers are on their game.

We've got the Rams still pending in this scenario tonight as they host a red hot Baltimore team, and based on early action reports – Baltimore's getting bet at about a 70% clip currently at – the oddsmakers would prefer to see LA get across the finish line as well.

Over on the “Not” side of things from last week, the NFC East teams in non-division action this past week ended up going 3-1 ATS, with everyone but the aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles getting an ATS win. Only the Washington Redskins were lucky enough to get a SU win though, as both Dallas and the NY Giants kept things close enough in low-scoring road defeats.

This week we've got a continuation of last week's angle of sorts, as we begin with teams from an AFC division and their recent non-division results, as well as a different take that's been going well. You put the two of them together for Week 13 and the entire betting board in the NFL is basically covered, so I'll even lay out all the teams you should be looking at for Week 13 and we can come back a week from now and see if these runs hold up.

Who's Hot

AFC East teams are 14-6-1 ATS in non-division games since October 1st

This trend wasn't stellar in Week 12 as it was a 2-2 ATS record for the likes of New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami, but overall, when these teams venture outside of the division, you generally want to be looking their way. All four of them have winning ATS records in non-division play since the beginning of October – New England are 4-2 ATS, Buffalo are 3-1-1 ATS, the NY Jets are 4-2 ATS, and Miami are 3-1 ATS – and about a handful of those ATS victories for the three teams not named “New England” have come as outright wins as underdogs as well.

I mean, look at this Jets team right now who have put up 34 points in three straight weeks, winning all three of those games by double digits, and closing as an underdog in all of them. QB Sam Darnold is probably feeling like himself again after his Mono issue earlier this year, as this offense that had many new faces show up this year is starting to play like a cohesive unit. Three straight SU and ATS wins as underdogs will start to bring attention in the betting market, and with a trip to Cincinnati on deck for the Jets this week, this run of New York catching points will end. We will have to see if the Jets – laying 3.5 points vs Cincinnati - can continue their strong play as favorites now, a role New York is 0-2 SU and ATS in this year, although both of those did come within AFC East division play.

The rest of this division is out playing non-conference foes in Week 13 as well, as early numbers have Buffalo (+7) in Dallas on Thanksgiving, Miami (+8.5) hosting Philadelphia, and New England (-3.5) at Houston on SNF. All three of these games have some interesting dynamics to them and you should find more support for any plays you do make, but Buffalo and Miami catching those points against Dallas and Philadelphia do look awfully attractive.

New England's got to deal with a Texans team that's had extended rest and hasn't had to travel, which makes backing the Patriots a little trickier, especially when the chances are they'll be a side the oddsmakers would prefer to see lose again.

But put all four plays in as early leans right now – NY Jets (-3.5), Buffalo (+7), Miami (+8.5) and New England (-3.5) and let's go on to build out the rest of this card with...

Who's Not

Fading teams that put up 30 or more points in their last outing – 5-12 ATS last three weeks, and 2-9 ATS past two weeks

I'll start with the pending game as that is tonight's MNF game between the Ravens and Rams. It's the Ravens who are coming off a 30+ point performance in their last outing, and that's going directly up against that run for NFC West teams in non-division play, so that's why it's so important to find further support for what side you decide to back. Tonight's game is a pass for me (at least with the side) as those conflicting runs suggest it will be a close game that could easily land on either side of the current number (Baltimore -3.5).

But a 9-2 ATS record for teams coming off a 30-point effort suggests that the offenses that achieve that production really go out and have a great week of practice afterwards, and build upon that momentum. These teams are 8-3 SU in those 11 games, so taking the points where you can may be better option. And going into Week 13 there are plenty of teams that qualify in this role.

Astute readers will know that the NY Jets (-3.5) fit both of these Hot/Not scenarios, and laying points with them against Cincinnati is something that does seem easy to get behind. So that's another piece of supporting evidence for Jets backers this week, although they've still got that nasty hook lying there. The number won't go down so buying off that hook may be the best option now, or just bypass the spread all together and take NY on the ML and go from there.

The list of the other teams you should be playing on in Week 13 based on them putting up 30+ in their last effort are: Tampa Bay (+1) at Jacksonville, Cleveland (-1) at Pittsburgh, New Orleans (-6.5) at Atlanta on Thursday, Carolina (-10) vs Washington, Tennessee (+3) at Indianapolis, and San Francisco (+4.5) at Baltimore – pending Baltimore doesn't land here themselves with 30+ on MNF.

That's already a lot of the board covered, but the majority of the teams listed here are on the road. That isn't exactly ideal, but it's how it goes and if your own handicapping throughout the week has you landing on a few of these teams, it's probably a good decision to fire.

In the end, these two situations have most of the Week 13 NFL board covered, with none of them conflicting. And as I said at the top, we can see how these plays end up in the coming week. They are:

Buffalo (+7)
New Orleans (-6.5)
Miami (+8.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Tennessee (+3)
Cleveland (-1)
Carolina (-10)
San Francisco (+4.5) – pending Baltimore's result
Tampa Bay (+1)
New England (-3.5)

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